The Ten Rarest Ten Libs

This article is about the ten rarest Liberty Head eagles. Notice that I didn’t say “the ten most popular” or “the ten most expensive.” Readers may be surprised that this top ten list does not include any Carson City issues (although I was tempted to include the 1870-CC) and just one from New Orleans. In looking over the list you will note that six of the ten coins are from Philadelphia and at least one or two are probably not all that familiar to even the most advanced collector of Liberty Head gold. Most of these dates have very low original mintage figures (one, the 1875, has a mintage of just 100 business strikes!) and nearly all have remarkably low survival rates. To qualify for this list, an issue requires a total population of under 50-60 coins.

In order of their rarity, here is my list of the ten rarest Liberty Head eagles. After this list, I am going to devote a paragraph or two to each issue, covering topics such as the total number known, rarity in high grades, the finest known, Condition Census information, etc.

1. 1875

2. 1864-S

3. 1873 Closed 3

4. 1863

5. 1865-S Normal Date

6. 1860-S

7. 1883-O

8. 1844

9. 1839 Head of 1840

10. The Coveted Last Spot on the List

1. 1875: The Philadelphia gold coinage of 1875 includes a number of issues with exceedingly low mintages. Only 400 examples of both the gold dollar and quarter eagle were produced but the survival rate is higher than expected. The three dollar is a Proof-only issue that has sold for over $100,000 since the 1970’s while the half eagle is a major rarity with probably no more than 10-12 known from the original mintage of 200. I believe that the 1875 eagle, however, is the rarest of all these impressive Philadelphia issues. I have seen it stated that as many as 12-15 are known but I believe that this figure is on the high side and that the actual number is more likely seven to nine. I have personally seen two or three that I would grade AU including Superior 6/97: 1541 and B&M 3/98: 2207 that were graded AU53 and AU50, respectively, by PCGS. The all-time auction record is $74,750 for an NGC AU55 sold as Lot 2102 in DLRC’s Richmond I auction in 2004.

Every business strike 1875 eagle (and I haven’t seen once since Heritage offered a PCGS VF35 in January 2006) is characterized by excessively abraded surfaces and inferior eye appeal. Some of the coins that have been certified as business strikes by both services are actually Impaired Proofs. Proof 1875 eagles have a different date position than business strikes and use a different reverse with the top of the second vertical stripe in the shield incomplete.

I believe that this is an extremely undervalued issue and if it were part of a more popular series it would be a $100,000++ coin.

2. 1864-S: The 1864-S is the rarest eagle from the San Francisco mint. Only 2,500 were produced and my best estimate is that around 25-30 are known. Unlike its cousin, the very rare 1864-S half eagle, the 1864-S eagle is unknown in Uncirculated and I have personally seen only two that I regard as AU - The Bass III: 658 (graded AU55 by PCGS; it sold for a remarkably cheap $36,800 back in May 2000) and a coin owned by a West Coast specialist. The all-time auction record is $50,600 set in the July 2006 B&M sale by a PCGS EF45.

This is a generally well-produced issue although most have weakness on the radial lines in the stars. I have only viewed a small handful of 1864-S eagles that had any mint luster and most are heavily bagmarked. This was an issue that saw considerable circulation and the majority of survivors are very well worn.

It is my suspicion that someone is hoarding lower grade 1864-S eagles. There has only been one example sold at auction in the last five years or so, despite a combined population of twenty-three coins at PCGS/NGC. Even assuming that this number is inflated by resubmissions, my instinct tells me that some savvy collector is sitting on a group of five to ten 1864-S eagles and torturing those of us who would love to buy an example.

3. 1873 Closed 3: All 1873 eagles (business strikes and Proofs) are found with a Closed 3 in the date. All other Philadelphia gold coins from this year are found with both an Open 3 and a Closed 3 variety. A total of 800 business strikes were produced along with 25 Proofs. There are an estimated 25-35 examples known. Unlike the 1875 and the 1864-S, most of the surviving 1873 eagles are not extremely well worn. In fact, the majority of the survivors grade in the AU range, suggesting that this issue saw little actual circulation. Most of the pieces I have seen are well struck and display satiny, slightly reflective luster. I have never viewed one that didn’t have heavy to very heavy abrasions and my guess is that most 1873 eagles were thrown into a bag and transported somewhere before being released into their brief period(s) of circulation.

The finest known is the ex: Warren Miller coin, graded MS60 by PCGS, which sold for $34,100 all the way back in October 1995. Prior to this, the coin had been sold as Stack’s 3/90: 1222. Bass III: 705 ($21,850; as PCGS AU58) is probably the second best. In all, I would estimate that there around a dozen or so in AU with most in tightly-held collections.

I recently sold a nice PCGS AU50 example to a prominent collector and this was the first 1873 eagle that I had owned in close to a decade.

4. 1863: All of the Civil War era Liberty Head eagles are scarce (with the exception of the 1861) but the 1863 is the key rarity in this subset. In fact, I regard it as among the very rarest 19th century Philadelphia gold coins. Only 1,248 business strikes were issued of which an estimated 30-40 are known. The finest is the superb Bass IV: 683 ex: MARCA 8/91: 755 that brought $52,900 in its last appearance (an amazing bargain) after Harry Bass had paid $104,500 for it back in 1991. The second finest known is an NGC MS62 from the S.S. Republic that is owned by a prominent Western collector. NGC has also graded an example in MS60.

Almost every example that I have seen grades EF45 or below and is characterized by excessively abraded surfaces. The luster is either soft and frosty or, less often, semi-prooflike and the strike tends to be bold with the exception of the curl directly above Liberty’s ear.

It has been a number of years since I have handled an 1863 eagle and the last example that I can recall having seen was an NGC AU58 that was sold at auction by Heritage back in 2005.

5. 1865-S Normal Date: Two varieties are known for this year. The better known is the spectacular 1865-S Over Inverted 186. The less visually impressive Normal Date is, ironically, the rarer of the two. I regard this as the second rarest eagle from San Francisco. I estimate that around 30-40 are known and nearly all grade EF40 or below. In fact, this is one of the rarest Liberty Head eagles from the standpoint of condition. I have never seen or heard of an Uncirculated example (although NGC has graded a coin in MS60) and I know of just three that I would call real AU’s (none better than AU50 to AU53).

The quality of strike is very distinctive with soft radial lines in the stars and a slightly concave appearance on the obverse. The reverse is better struck although many examples show weakness on the neck feathers. I have never seen an 1865-S Normal Date eagle that did not have heavily abraded surfaces and most have enough wear to lack any significant luster.

The record price at auction for this issue is $21,850 set by Heritage in January 2007 for a coin graded AU58 by NGC. I believe that a nice, original AU55 to AU58 could sell for considerably more in today’s market if it became available (or even exists).

6. 1860-S: Unless you know this series, you are probably not aware of the true rarity of the 1860-S. This is a very rare coin in all grades and one that is even harder to locate than its small original mintage of 5,000 would suggest. I believe that 35-45 are known including five or six properly graded AU’s and two in Mint State. This date was unknown in Uncirculated until two were found in the S.S. Republic treasure. The finer of the two, graded MS62 by NGC, is owned by a West Coast collector. The other, graded MS61 by NGC, sold for $37,375 in the Superior May 2008; an all-time auction record for this date.

The typical 1860-S is very well worn with VF to EF detail and shows signs of having been mishandled. The strike is typically soft with weakness on the stars and incomplete definition in the centers.

7. 1883-O: The 1883-O is the rarest eagle produced at the New Orleans mint. In my book “Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint 1839-1909” I suggested that 35-45 examples are known from the original mintage of just 800 coins. I still agree with this estimate. Since my book was published in 2006, very few 1883-O eagles have become available and the demand for this issue seems to have greatly increased.

Virtually every example that I have seen grades in the EF40 to AU50 range and is characterized by heavily abraded surfaces. Most are Prooflike and have had their luster disturbed by rough handling and/or numismatic abuse.

The finest known example, an NGC MS61PL (earlier graded MS60 by NGC), surfaced in a bid sale conducted by a dealer at the 2008 FUN show. It was purchased by a consortium of dealers and then sold to a private collector for a record price. With the exception of this coin, very few 1883-O eagles have been seen by me in the last three or so years.

8. 1844: I mentioned in the beginning of this article that there were a few coins on this list that were not well-known outside of the core collecting community of Liberty Head eagles. I would have to rank the 1844 as the number one sleeper in this group and it is a coin whose true rarity even surprised me as I was researching this group.

There were only 6,361 eagles struck in 1844 and my estimate is that 40-50+ are known. When you do find an 1844 eagle, it tends to be very well worn with VF and EF examples most often seen. I believe that there are fewer than ten properly graded AU examples known with most in the AU50-53 range. NGC has graded one in MS63 (I have not seen it) which may possibly be the Bell coin from 1944; they have also graded an MS61 example that Heritage sold in their January 2002 auction for a reasonable $10,063. The best example I have personally seen is an AU55 and I cannot recall having seen a nice 1844 eagle in over five years.

Every 1844 has two prominent die characteristics on the obverse. There is a horizontal die line below the first star and a series of vertical die scratches from the denticles out into the field near star three.

9. 1839 Type of 1840: I’m not totally certain that this variety belongs at the #9 spot on the list but I have always loved the 1839 Type of 1840 and it’s my list, so I’m going to put it into this slot, deserving or not.

This issue was created after the Eagle design was remodeled in 1839 and it is appreciably different from the Type of 1838 that was produced earlier in the year. It is rare in all grades with an estimated 50-60 known from the original mintage of 12,447. This issue is usually seen in very low grades with VF20 to EF40 examples being typical. It becomes rare in AU with around ten or so properly graded pieces known. In Uncirculated it is slightly more available than some of the other issues on this list. I would estimate that there are three or four known. The finest (and one of my single favorite American coins) is Pittman: 1912, ex: Farouk, Woodin. This coin sold for $143,000 back in May 1998 and it is now graded MS64 by NGC.

10. The Coveted Last Spot on the List: There were a number of other dates that offered strong claims for the #10 spot but there was so little separation between them in terms of overall rarity that I did not think it was fair to include one and exclude the others. These dates include the 1858, 1859-S, 1864, 1866-S With Motto, 1876 and 1877. If I had to choose one that was most deserving, I would probably pick the 1859-S, based on the fact that I have handled fewer examples of this than of the others in the last few years. But I could easily see collectors coming to the support of the 1876 or 1877 and the 1858 is certainly the best known date in this small group.

I personally find the Liberty Head eagle series to be among the most interesting in all of American numismatics. It is extremely challenging but, unlike many other hard series, it is not impossible to complete.

The Ten Rarest Dahlonega Gold Coins Revisted

In the five years since I wrote the second edition of my book on Dahlonega gold coinage, a number of important coins have been sold and some significant changes are going to be have to be made when I release my third edition (which, if I had to guess, will be out in another year or so). I think it would be interesting to look at the ten rarest Dahlonega gold coins and see what important things have changed about them since 2003. For each of these issues, I am going to focus on the following aspects:

-Changes (if any) in high grade rarity

-Changes (if any) in Condition Census

-New Finest Known coins or important new discoveries

-New price records at auction or via private treaty

Before we begin, I think a quick overview of the Dahlonega market is in order. If I had to summarize it in a paragraph I would say that the market is currently strong. The supply of Dahlonega coins—even schlocky ones—really seems to have dried up in the last two or three years. It was always hard to find choice, original Dahlonega coins; even in low grades. Now it seems hard to find even mediocre quality pieces. And the very rare Dahlonega issues—the coins which we will focus on in this article—have become exceptionally hard to locate. The last really important specialized collection to come on the market was the Duke’s Creek gold dollars and quarter eagles that Heritage auctioned in April 2006.

1855-D Gold Dollar: This remains the rarest Dahlonega gold dollar in high grades and it is the second rarest overall with fewer than 100 known. The rarity of this issue with a full date seems to have been exaggerated by me in the first two editions of my book. I would revise the number of 1855-D gold dollars with a full date upwards from “less than a dozen” to around double this amount.

While no new discoveries of note have been recorded, no less than three record prices were recorded between 2006 and 2007. In February 2007, the Goldberg: 2097 example, graded MS64 by NGC, sold for an incredible $149,500; it had sold earlier as Heritage 1/06: 3396 where it brought $109,250. The finest known 1855-D was purchased by a prominent Alabama collector in the Heritage April 2006 sale where it realized $132,250. This coin had previously been graded MS64 by NGC; now it is in a PCGS 64 holder. The only other Uncirculated 1855-D gold dollars, graded MS62 and MS61 by PCGS, sold for $56,350 and $46,000 respectively in the Heritage 2/04 auction. Remarkably, the four finest 1855-D gold dollars all sold at auction between 2004 and 2007(!)

1856-D Gold Dollar: In the second edition of my Dahlonega book, I estimated that 80-90 examples of the 1856-D gold dollar exist. I still believe that this is accurate. I also estimated that only four to five Uncirculated examples are known. By the magic of gradeflation, I think this number has climbed to around half dozen.

A world record price was set by the Heritage 1/04: 1009 coin (ex: Green Pond) that sold for $47,150 and another impressive price realized was the Heritage 4/06: 1488 coin (ex: Duke’s Creek) that brought $40,250. One of these two coins was upgraded to MS63 by NGC and it now is the highest graded 1856-D gold dollar. Two other high grade 1856-D gold dollars that have traded since the second edition of my book was published are a new PCGS MS62 that I sold via private treaty in 2007 to the Wexford Collection and the ANR 9/03: 425 coin that sold for $41,400, the second highest price ever realized by this date.

1861-D Gold Dollar: The 1861-D gold dollar has, arguably, become the most popular coin of any denomination produced at the Dahlonega mint. I can’t attribute this soaring degree of popularity to anything other than a high “coolness” factor and a multi-tiered level of demand that is not seen by other Dahlonega issues.

My estimate of 55-65 known may be a bit on the low side and I would probably raise this to 65-75 including a dozen or so in Uncirculated. A record price was set in January 2008 when the Heritage 1/08: 3050 example brought $149,500 (this is an exact tie with an MS64 1855-D for the highest price ever realized by any gold dollar from Dahlonega). This same coin had brought $138,000 in April 2006. The finest known 1861-D remains the Pierce/Ullmer coin, graded MS64 by PCGS, in a prominent Alabama collection. In my opinion, the second finest is the Green Pond coin, graded MS63 by PCGS, which sold for $86,250 in January 2004.

1840-D Quarter Eagle: Of the ten coins discussed in this article, I think the 1840-D is the least well-known. It is the third rarest Dahlonega quarter eagle and I now regard it as the second rarest in high grades after the 1856-D. I believe this date is unique in properly graded Uncirculated and the finest known example, known to collectors as the Bareford/Duke’s Creek coin, sold for a record $74,750 when it was auctioned by Heritage in April 2006. (This coin, by the way, still appears in the PCGS population figures as an MS61. The only Uncirculated 1840-D quarter graded Uncirculated by NGC (an MS61) is owned by a Kansas collector and it is ex: Superior 8/07: 659 ($31,050), Heritage 1/04: 1016 ($27,600). I still think that even in properly graded AU50, the 1840-D is genuinely rare and there are fewer than a dozen true AU’s known.

1855-D Quarter Eagle: The true rarity of the 1855-D quarter eagle has been distorted by the fact that virtually all of the higher grade examples that have appeared for sale are overgraded. This includes at least two coins in MS60 holders that have been recolored and another with damage on the surfaces. The all-time price record for the 1855-D was set in April 2006 when Heritage sold an NGC MS61 for $54,625.

I have previously stated that the 1855-D is the rarest Dahlonega quarter eagle in high grades and overall. I now believe it to be the second rarest, after the 1856-D. I still have never seen an encapsulated 1855-D quarter eagle that I believed to fully Uncirculated. There is an example in the Smithsonian’s collection that noted expert Jeff Garrett grades MS62.

1856-D Quarter Eagle: My respect for this issue has increased over time and I now regard it as not only the rarest Dahlonega quarter eagle but the rarest single issue of any denomination from this mint. Only 874 were struck and there are probably no more than 45-55 known.

Due to its crude strike, this is an extremely hard issue to grade and I’m not really sure exactly how many Uncirculated pieces exist. PCGS has only graded a single example in Uncirculated (Heritage 1/04: 1034, ex: Green Pond that sold for $69,000) while NGC shows one in MS60 and four in MS61 with none better. The only Uncirculated NGC coin that I have personally handled is Heritage 4/06: 1513 (MS61) that I paid a record price of $71,875. There is a PCGS AU58 that is owned by a prominent Alabama collector that I think is outstanding for the issue and I have handled two other PCGS AU58’s that I feel are accurately graded.

1854-D Three Dollar: This is the only one of the ten issues in this article that I believe is overrated by most non-specialists. However, as I have mentioned innumerable times, its status as a one-year issue make it exceedingly popular with a wide range of collectors. A nice 1854-D Three Dollar has become the “High Relief of Branch Mint Gold” (i.e., an expensive but extremely popular issue with exceptional liquidity).

An all-time record for this date was set in April 2006 when I purchased an NGC MS62 from the Duke’s Creek collection sale. This easily eclipsed the previous auction high of $92,000 that was set by the Green Pond: 1037 coin back in January 2004. The two finest 1854-D Threes remain the fantastic Bass coin (see www.hbrf.org to view an image of this special piece) and the PCGS MS62 in the Great Lakes collection.

As of July 2008, PCGS had graded four examples in Uncirculated: MS62-(2) MS61 and MS60 while NGC had graded nine: MS62-(5) MS61 and (3) MS60. I believe the actual number of Uncirculated 1854-D Threes is around four or five.

1838-D Half Eagle: The 1838-D is by far the most available issue in this group of ten coins and the major reason I decided to include it (and exclude much rarer coins such as the 1860-D gold dollar and 1841-D, 1842-D and 1854-D quarter eagles) is that it is extremely popular. I would have to rank it as one of the three or four most popular issues from this mint.

As I mentioned before, the 1838-D half eagle is a relatively common issue and I believe that there are somewhere north of 300 known including as many as eight to ten in Uncirculated. But what I find interesting about this issue is that the supply has really shriveled in the last few years, particularly in higher grades. The only really nice Uncirculated 1838-D that I have seen in the last few years is Heritage 2007 ANA: 1919 (PCGS MS62 @$37,375). An NGC MS63 (ex: Ashland City collection) bounced around from sale to sale in 2003-2006 and I have never particularly cared for it. I believe that if a really choice, fresh PCGS MS62 or better 1838-D half eagle were to appear on the market, it would command a record price as there seem to be many collectors waiting around for such a coin.

1842-D Large Date Half Eagle: Despite its status as the rarest Dahlonega half eagle in higher grades, this is another issue that is somewhat off the radar to nearly everyone except specialists. In terms of its overall rarity, I believe this variety is a bit more available than I claimed in the second edition of my book. In high grades, it remains a major rarity with just a single Uncirculated graded by PCGS (the Green Pond coin which is in an MS61 holder) and two in MS61 at NGC.

The all-time auction record for the 1842-D half eagle was set in January 2004 by Green Pond: 1043 which realized $41,400. The Duke’s Creek/Eliasberg coin, which was formerly in a PCGS AU58 holder, is now (deservedly) in an NGC MS61 holder. An exceptional new PCGS AU58 was sold by me around a year ago to the Wexford Collection. I am especially interested to see the newly discovered NGC MS61 that was found as part of the S.S. New York treasure in Louisiana. This coin will be sold at auction by Stack’s just prior to the 2008 ANA.

1861-D Half Eagle: Like its gold dollar counterpart, the 1861-D half eagle has become an issue whose demand transcends specialists. As a result, prices for both 1861-D issues have soared in recent years. Despite the fact that even low grade 1861-D half eagles are now commanding prices upwards of $10,000, few have come to market since the second edition of my book was released.

However, there has been quite a bit of activity in the upper end of the 1861-D half eagle market. The finest known example, graded MS63 by PCGS, sold for a record $207,000 in Heritage’s 2008 FUN auction. This was, as far as I know, the most money that any single Dahlonega coin has ever brought. The second finest known example, pedigreed to the Duke’s Creek and Eliasberg collection, was upgraded from MS63 at PCGS to MS64 at NGC. And another MS63 was “made” at PCGS when the Duke’s Creek coin (ex: Heritage 1/04: 1065 @ $74,750 as PCGS MS62) upgraded a point.

The current certified population figures for this date are clearly inflated. PCGS shows three coins in MS63 but there are only two. They also show four in MS62 but I believe that the correct number is also two. The NGC population figure of three in MS62 seems inflated as well.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, I plan to begin work soon on the revised third edition of my Dahlonega book and will incorporate all of the changes mentioned in this article. If you have pertinent new information about Dahlonega coins that you feel should be in the book, please email me at dwn@ont.com and I will make certain it is included.

How To Collect Charlotte Gold Coins

There are many ways to collect Charlotte gold. Some people have only a mild interest in these coins and may buy just one or two pieces. Other people are more serious and they have a large number of Charlotte issues in their collection. A small number of Charlotte collectors are obsessives who focus exclusively on these pieces and do not collect anything else. I would like to make some suggestions on how to collect Charlotte gold. In my experience, all of these ideas have merit and none is “better” than the other. It depends on the tastes and budget of an individual collector to determine which one(s) is right for him. I. THE INTRODUCTIORY THREE COIN SET

The most basic way to collect Charlotte gold is to purchase a single example of the gold dollar, quarter eagle and half eagle denominations. This is a very good way to collect for the individual who has a limited budget or who is not certain how deep his interest lies in Charlotte gold.

A basic three coin set of Charlotte gold should consist of nice, problem-free pieces. It would make sense to focus on the more common dates although some collectors might prefer to include some scarcer issues. The grade range for these coins is likely to fall in the Extremely Fine-40 to About Uncirculated-58 range.

The 1851-C is the most logical choice for the gold dollar in this set as it is the most common and affordable date. A pleasing Extremely Fine can be obtained for $1,500 or so. About Uncirculated pieces range from $1,750 to $3,500 depending on quality.

The optimum quarter eagle for this set is the 1847-C as it is the most common date of this denomination from Charlotte by a large margin. A nice Extremely Fine example costs around $2,000 while About Uncirculated coins range from $2,500 to $4,000. It is possible to upgrade to a much scarcer date without paying a substantial premium. As an example, the 1843-C Large Date sells for around the same price in Extremely Fine as does the 1847-C but it is much harder to locate.

In About Uncirculated, the 1847-C used to be much less expensive than all other Charlotte quarter eagles but the price spread has diminished in the last few years. This, in my opinion, makes dates such as the 1843-C Large Date, 1848-C and 1858-C very interesting alternatives, especially in the lower range of the About Uncirculated grades.

There are many dates in the half eagle series that would work well in this type set. These include the 1849-C, 1852-C, 1853-C and 1858-C. Any of these can be purchased in nice Extremely Fine for around $2,500 while About Uncirculated coins are priced in the $3,000-6,000 range.

An alternative to the standard three coin set would be to purchase the same date for all three denominations. This is feasible for issues dated 1849-C, 1850-C, 1851-C and 1852-C. A set from 1855 could also be assembled but the gold dollar and the quarter eagle from this year are quite expensive in higher grades.

II. THE BASIC AND EXPANDED TYPE SETS

A type set of Charlotte gold coins includes one example of each major type struck at this mint. Such a set includes the following:

• Type One gold dollar (1849-1853)
• Type Two gold dollar (1855 only)
• Type Three gold dollar (1857 and 1859)
• Classic Head quarter eagle (1838-39)
• Liberty Head quarter eagle (1840-1860)
• Classic Head half eagle (1838 only)
• Liberty Head, obverse mintmark half eagle (1839 only)
• Liberty Head, reverse mintmark half eagle (1840-1861)

A total of eight types were struck at the Charlotte mint. This includes three that were struck only in one year. A complete eight piece type set is an excellent display item. The various designs used in striking these coins provide a graphic illustration of the artistic and historic record of the Charlotte mint.

Most collectors who assemble an eight piece Charlotte type set do so in grades ranging from Extremely Fine-40 to About Uncirculated-58. This set could be completed in Uncirculated but it would be very difficult to do given the rarity of the 1838-C Classic Head half eagle in Mint State.

The coins that are included in a Charlotte type set are generally the more common dates. Some collectors use better dates in order to make their sets more interesting and potentially more valuable. I would strongly recommend that the collector include at least a few better dates.

A nicely matched Extremely Fine set should cost approximately $25,000-30,000. The most expensive coins in the set are the 1838-C half eagle, the 1839-C half eagle and the 1855-C gold dollar.

A set that consists of all eight coins in About Uncirculated-50 to About Uncirculated-58 can be assembled for approximately $50,000-100,000+. The cost could be significantly reduced if the Type Two gold dollar and the 1838-C and 1839-C half eagles were nice Extremely Fine coins as opposed to About Uncirculated-50 or better.

III. COLLECTING BY DENOMINATION

Each of the three denominations struck at the Charlotte mint are popular with collectors. For various reasons, some of which will be discussed below, some collectors feel an affinity towards a specific denomination.

Collectors generally love or hate the gold dollar. The small size of this coin (13 or 15mm. depending on the type) sharply divides the collecting community. Some collectors find it hard to fathom paying thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars to pay for a coin that is the size of an average adult’s thumbnail. Another negative factor about Charlotte gold dollars is the crudeness with which they were struck. If you are not a specialist it may be tough to “get” a coin that is this crude.

The reasons that cause some people to dislike gold dollars are the same reasons that other people like them. Their crudeness has an odd allure and their small size gives them a distinct charm.

Collectors also like gold dollars because of their low mintage figures. With the exception of the 1851-C, each issue from Charlotte has an original mintage figure of 14,000 or less. Four of the eight have mintages lower than 10,000.

On a coin by coin basis the Charlotte gold dollar series is relatively affordable. A set of eight coins in Extremely Fine should be completable for approximately $20,000. Every Charlotte gold dollar can be found in About Uncirculated grades without great difficulty. The only obstacles to completing a set in this range are available funds and the level of fussiness that a collector brings to the set. Figure on spending $35,000-40,000+ for a mid-range About Uncirculated set and double this amount for a very high end About Uncirculated set.

A complete set in Uncirculated could be assembled but it would be difficult due to the rarity of the 1855-C and 1857-C. Assuming that these two issues are available, a complete set in Mint State-60 to Mint State-63 could be assembled for $100,000-150,000+.

The Charlotte quarter eagles are the most challenging of the three denominations. Assembling a set of these requires patience and dedication. Many are very rare in higher grades. Others have peculiarities of strike that make it hard to find pieces with good eye appeal. The rarest Charlotte quarter eagles are the 1842-C, 1843-C Small Date, 1846-C and 1855-C. These are hard to find in all grades and rare in properly graded About Uncirculated.

There are a total of twenty issues in the Charlotte quarter eagle set. This includes two varieties from 1843: the Small Date and the Large Date. No quarter eagles were produced at this mint in 1845, 1853, 1857 and 1859.

It is a realistic goal to complete this set in Extremely Fine grades. The cost of such a set would be in the area of $55,000-65,000. In About Uncirculated this set is still realistically completable but assembling an attractive, well-matched set requires time and patience. It is not unrealistic to set aside a budget of as much as $250,000 for a world-class About Uncirculated set for choice, high end coins with original surfaces. Completing a set of Charlotte quarter eagles in Uncirculated is possible but exceptionally difficult. There are a number of issues such as the 1839-C, 1842-C, 1848-C, 1849-C and 1856-C that have extremely few truly Mint State pieces known to exist.

A complete set of Charlotte half eagles consists of twenty-four coins. This includes two varieties struck in 1842 (the Small Date and the Large Date) and none in 1845.

The half eagles are the most popular denomination from this mint. One of the reasons for this has to do with the relatively large size of these coins. Another has to do with the fact that every issue except for one (the rare 1842-C Small Date) is reasonably easy to obtain in the higher circulated grades.

A set of nice Extremely Fine Charlotte half eagles should cost in the neighborhood of $100,000-125,000 with a good chunk of this set aside for the 1842-C Small Date. A complete set in About Uncirculated is challenging but less difficult than for the quarter eagles. A set of well-matched, original Charlotte half eagles in About Uncirculated would require a budget of approximately $200,000-250,000+. Completing a set in Uncirculated is very difficult but not impossible. The stoppers in this set include the 1838-C, 1840-C, 1842-C Small Date, 1846-C and 1854-C.

IV. ASSEMBLING A COMPLETE SET OF CHARLOTTE GOLD

Some collectors get hooked on Charlotte gold and decide to assemble a complete set. A complete set of Charlotte gold is generally understood to contain the following:

• Gold Dollars: A total of nine issues struck between 1849 and 1859. One of these, the 1849-C Open Wreath, is excessively rare with just four or five known to exist. Because of its rarity, it is not included in most sets but it is still regarded as an important member of the Charlotte series.
• Quarter Eagles: A total of twenty issues produced between 1838 and 1860.
• Half Eagles: A total of twenty-four issues struck between 1838 and 1861.

The final cost of assembling a complete set of Charlotte coinage (minus the excessively rare 1849-C Open Wreath gold dollar) is within the reach of many collectors. A set that focuses on nice Extremely Fine coins would cost approximately $200,000. A set that consists of nice About Uncirculated coins would cost anywhere from $600,000 up to $800,000+.

Due to new discoveries and relaxed grading standards it is now possible for a collector to assemble a complete set of Charlotte coins in Uncirculated grades.

To the best of my knowledge, no collector has assembled a totally complete set of Charlotte gold in Uncirculated. I know of at least two or three collectors who have assembled the complete set (including the extremely rare 1849-C Open Wreath gold dollar) but none of these have contained Uncirculated examples of this variety.

The finest collections ever assembled of Charlotte coins include the Stanley Elrod collection (sold privately in 1994 and now, unfortunately, split into numerous parts), the Paul Dingler collection (which included the only known complete set of Mint State Charlotte quarter eagles and half eagles; it was purchased by Heritage Coin Galleries and myself a few years ago) and the William Miller collection (sold by Heritage at auction in 1999).

2008 Crystal Ball Survey - Part Two

In the second part of this series, I reveal my answers to the final question from the Rosen 2007-2008 Crystal Ball survey. There are some very interesting questions asked here and some controversial answers so read on for my insights into the current State of the Market. For the following six (6) questions I ask you for your Best Buy selections in a number of series. Please detail why you made your picks and the potential you see for them.

10. Your Best Buys for U.S. Type Coins.

a. Seated Dimes, Quarters and Half Dollars in Mint State-64 to Mint State-66. I think you will see significant appreciation in this area in the coming year or two. b. Barber Dimes, Quarter and Half Dollars in MS64 to MS66 and PR64 to PR66. They aren’t the most attractive coins in the world from the standpoint of design but they are very cheap right now. You can buy a pleasing MS65 Barber Dime for less than $500. c. Gem Trade Dollars. I just never seem to see true MS65 Trade Dollars. Current Bluesheet bid for MS65’s is something like $7,000. They are great deals at double to triple this price. d. Large Size Bust Dimes and Quarters in just about any grade from VF and up. For every one of these you see, there are about ten Bust Halves. If I were going to start collecting coins I think I’d do a date set of Large Size Bust Dimes and maybe expand it to include all of the Redbook varieties. Most of the dates can be bought in nice VF and EF for less than a few thousand dollars.

11. Your Best Buys for Gold Coins.

a. Any Charlotte or Dahlonega gold coin that hasn’t been scrubbed in EF and AU grades. There are fewer of these remaining than people realize. b. Better date $5 Indians and $10 Indians. In the former I really like the S mint dates in MS64 and MS65. In the latter I like virtually any P mint not dated 1911, 1926 or 1932 as well as the tough mintmarked dates in MS64 and MS65. c. Affordable Proof gold. I find that whenever I have an interesting piece of Proof gold in stock for less than $20,000 it sells quickly. d. Gem Matte Proof gold that hasn’t been conserved. Does any exist outside of museums or old-time collections? e. MS66 $2.50 Libs. Seems like they should have a greater premium over MS65’s than they currently do. This is a reflection of the fact that today’s 66’s are not much nicer than most 65’s. If grading tightens on this series, I think the 66’s have real upside.

12. Your Best Buys for Silver Dollars.

a. Semi-Key Morgan Dollars in MS65. I like dates like the 1898-S,1899-S and 1900-S. b. Rare date Peace Dollars in accurately graded MS65. If someone would ever take the time to write a really good collector guide to this series and promote them half as well as Morgans have been, these coins would really take off. They are a great value.

13. Your Best Buys for U.S. Commemoratives.

I’m not enthusiastic about any Commems but if I had to pick any, I’d stick with the issues from the 1910’s and 1920’s in MS66 with attractive light to medium color.

14. Your Best Buys for 20th century collector series.

a. Peace Dollars in MS65, as mentioned above. b. Non Full Head Standing Liberty Quarters. I don’t know this series very well but the non-FH’s seem cheap compared to the FH coins. c. Any Proof Barber coins which are decent looking and priced under $1,000. Good value!!

15. Your Best Buys for any other area of your choice.

a. One year type coins or coins with a good story. In the area of dated gold this entails issues like 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles, 1838-C&D quarter eagles and half eagles, 1839-C&D quarter eagles and half eagles, 1838 eagles, etc. As people move more towards type collecting within the dated series, we are seeing a huge premium paid for significant one-year type, first-year-of-issues, etc. b. Pretty coins that don’t command stratospheric premiums. I look through thousands of coins at every show at auction and am amazed at how few are pretty. If you can buy, say, an MS66 Barber Quarter with lovely color for a 10-15% premium over a dipped-out, mediocre example I think this is great value. c. Some ultra-rare coins are still good deals. I think the 1876-CC Twenty Cent Piece has the potential to be a $750,000-1,000,000 coin in the not-so-distant future. d. Proof Bust coins are still fair value, especially in the PR64 and PR65 grades. But beware of examples in slabs that are not Proofs. As a smart dealer recently told me, “if it doesn’t look like a Proof...it ain’t!” e. Colonials and Early Americana. This is an area that shouldn’t be tackled without an expert’s help but how can you not love coins like New Jersey or Connecticut Coppers in attractive middle grades for less than $1,000 per coin? I wouldn’t necessarily look at this area as an “investment” but I think it is one place where a comparatively small collecting budget can still go a long, long way.

16. The sheer scope and market value of Modern Coins has grown greatly over the years such that Classic U.S. coins are facing increasingly strong competition for collector interest. A) What does this mean for the future of the Classic Coin market?

There are always going to be collectors who prefer classic coins but I would expect that a sizable number of the new collectors who enter the market in the coming years will focus on moderns. Many younger collectors just don’t “get” classic coins and they vastly prefer modern issues. I’ve personally learned to accept this as a fact, just like I’ve come to accept the fact that there are at least two generations who barely know what a vinyl record is and who get all their music via MP3’s and online downloads.

B) What does it mean for the potential of the Modern Coin marketplace?

I think there are great opportunities for marketers and dealers in the modern coin market. It’s going to be interesting to see if this market is structured like the classic coin market or if it gets an entirely new structure. My guess is that there is some young guy out there who is going to become the Sean Fanning of the modern coin market—he’s going to develop the “killer app” that makes him a fortune and which revolutionizes the way modern coins are collected and bought/sold. I think collectors should be encouraged to specialize in whatever turns them on and if happens to be modern coins then more power to them!

17. Do you think rare coins are priced too cheap in relation to other investment areas? Compare to art, antiques, stocks, real estate, you name it.

As someone who is extremely interested in art, I find coins to be absurdly cheap. To be a serious player right now in an area like Contemporary Art, you are looking at spending $1 million++ for something that’s good but not great. I personally love 15th and 16th century Italian art but no matter how rich I was, I couldn’t buy any great works—they are essentially all in museums. But in the coin market you can buy museum quality rarities for $20,000. You need to remember, though, that there is one critical difference between art and coins. When you buy art, you hang it on the wall and impress your friends with your taste and high degree of sophistication. You can’t hang a coin on the wall and even if you could it’s way too small to make you the envy of your town’s Swanky People. I wouldn’t compare coins to real estate or stocks as that’s way too “apples to oranges” in context.

18. A) What one series strikes you as particularly undervalued?

There are lots of series I like but two that come to mind are Liberty Seated half dollars and New Orleans eagles. Both are big, both are relatively attractive from a design standpoint and both offer collectors an area where $5,000-10,000 will buy you something really special.

B) What dates and grades in that series make the most sense for an investor to buy?

In Seated half dollars, I like the No Motto New Orleans coins in MS63 and better, especially those with attractive light to medium natural color. The survival rate of these issues is very low and most are very rare in Uncirculated, despite being priced at less than $7,500 per coin for the most part. In New Orleans Liberty Eagles I like the No Motto coins in original, unprocessed AU and above and I like the With Motto coins in MS63 and better.

What is their upside potential?

I think many of the Seated half dollars that I mentioned above that currently trade for $5,000-7,500 could double within the next five years, especially if more people start collecting Seated half dollars by date. The good quality New Orleans eagles are already bringing well over CDN Bid when they sell at auction but the price reporting for these issues is about a year or two behind the actual market.

19. What are your one, two, or three most favorite coins in all of numismatics that you would qualify as "sleepers," very undervalued?

a. Truly original, accurately graded C&D mint gold coins in About Uncirculated. I wouldn’t be surprised if coins like this start bringing huge premiums over their scrubby counterparts in the near future. b. Just about any No Motto Seated quarter or half dollar in MS64 or better. Forget the original mintage figures of these coins as they are very rare. You can also forget the current pricing guides as they typically bring multiples of Bid or Trends at auction when they are offered for sale. c. Pre-1834 quarter eagles in nearly any grade. With the exception of the 1796 No Stars and the 1808, these are much undervalued. In fact, they are far rarer than early half eagles or eagles of this era but still sell at a discount because of their reasonably small size. Coins with unadulterated original surfaces are really hard to find! d. Proof Bust coinage. There have been very few Proof bust coins that have traded since the market started shooting upwards five+ years ago but, in my opinion, the few Proof bust coins that have sold have not brought nearly enough of a premium relative to their pre-2001 price levels. You can still buy a pretty nice Proof bust half dollar for under $50,000. That’s just too cheap for a coin as rare as this. e. Proof half cents and large cents from the 1830’s, 1840’s and early 1850’s. Here’s another area where many prices have been flat for the past decade or so. I love coins like Proof half cents from the 1840’s in PR64 Brown or PR64 Red and Brown for under $7,500. While I am not necessarily touting them as an investment, I think they are a terrific value.

20. A) Where are the young coin dealers? We remember hot-shot young turks of the past whose brilliant minds and trading skills were the envy of veteran dealers.

I think there are actually more people working in the coin business who are in their 20’s than most of us Old Dudes realize but very few of them standout as being the next Jason Carter or Ryan Carroll (the two best young coin dealers from the 1990’s and 2000’s, respectively). I think it’s very hard being a dealer in this day and age given the cost of starting a business and maintaining an inventory. When I started my own firm in 1984 I had less than $50,000 in capital. This wouldn’t get a young kid very far today. That said, this is a great business for young entrepreneurs. The typical successful coin dealer is now in his 40’s or 50’s and doesn’t want to work as hard as 10 or 20 years ago. There are a lot of A-level dealers who are going to retire or semi-retire in the next decade and I wonder who is going to take their place. If I had a 16 year old kid, I would certainly encourage him to take over my business as I start to wind things down in the next few years.

B) What's the future of being a coin dealer?

I anticipate that the coin dealer of the future is going to be valued more as a conduit of information or as a broker than anything else. I would expect that margins will continue to decrease. I think the days of the brick and mortar coin shop is just about history but I do expect there to be a continued need for highly competent, specialized dealers. I think you will also see a few mega-dealers emerge who become dominant forces in the market; as Heritage is currently on course to becoming right now (if they haven’t already done so...) I’m happy I’m not a young, struggling kid just coming up in the business although I see a lot more opportunity for mentorship and guidance than when I was coming up in the early 1980’s and things were A LOT more cut-throat.

2008 Crystal Ball Survey - Part One

For the last few years, I have been asked by Maurice Rosen, publisher of the excellent Rosen Numismatic Advisory newsletter, to be a contributor to his annual Crystal Ball survey. This feature, which generally has the participation of a half dozen or so very knowledgeable dealers, is an excellent way for me to analyze the coin market and the questions asked by Maurice are diverse and interesting. Here are my answers to the 2008/2009 RNA Crystal Ball Survey. Please note that due to the length of this article it will appear in two parts. 1. What's your outlook for the coin market in 2008/2009?

I think the market will be mostly strong in 2008 although I think we will see continued bifurcation as we have the last few years. By this I mean I think there will be great strength at the absolute upper end of the market and we will also see good demand for interesting lower priced coins but the middle market will continue to be weak; possibly more so than in 2007. I foresee some weakness in the economy in 2008 and I would imagine that because of the housing slowdown we will see fewer people throwing sizable amount of disposable income at things like coins. Really good coins, though, are going to do awfully well in the coming years. There just aren’t many of them around.

2. What areas of the market look to be the best performers in 2008/2009? Please state your reasons.

I think type coins will be a very strong performer in 2008, especially Seated and Barber coins in MS64 to MS67 and PR64 to PR67. Coins like this have been too cheap for too long and people have finally gotten wise to this. Early coins have gotten too expensive for most people (in higher grades) and the grading standards tend to be pretty atrocious in this area. I think a number of collectors are realizing that a smart place to be is in the Seated and Barber arena. You can still buy really nice coins that are 100+ years old for less than $5,000.

I expect that rarities and trophy coins will be extremely strong this year. I find it amazing that an 1804 $10 sold for $5 million dollars recently and I’ve got to think that $1 million dollar sales are going to be reasonably routine in 2008 and 2009.

I would expect that Proof Gold will do nicely in 2008 as will better date $5 Indians and $10 Indians.

In rare date and early gold, I think anything that is choice and original will be in demand this year. I am already noticing a large price spread between crusty coins and scrubbed coins and I think this will continue as originality becomes more and more in vogue in 2008. Here’s my advice for collectors and investors in 2008, 2009 and beyond. Buy coins that are interesting and which have good aesthetic appeal.  

3. What areas look to be the weakest? Again, please state why.

I would expect that silver commemoratives are going to stay very weak in 2008 unless some large marketing firm decides to promote them. They seem like great values right now but there are just too many of the little buggers around and unless you can count on selling thousands and thousands of coins, you can’t control the promotion.

I would have to think we will see some weakness in Registry Set coins that are perceived to be overvalued.

I also think that, with the exception of gold dollars, small-sized coins are not going to do well. As collectors get older and older, few people are able to see coins like Three Cent silvers and half dimes.

This is going to sound a little bit general but coins that are ugly are going to do poorly in 2008. No matter what the plastic says, if a coin is off quality, it will be hard to sell.

4. Since the 2001 lows, coin prices by some averages are up 20-50% but gold is up about 200%.

A) Have your clients expressed concerns about this?

How could they not express concern? While some areas of the market have done fabulously since 2001 (early type, early gold, rarities) many other areas have been extremely flat. In some cases, truly rare coins in relatively popular series are actually down in value since 2001, especially if you take out the gradeflation factor(s).

B) What do you tell them?

The truth. Which is, in my opinion, that as much as I love coins and the coin market in general, there are some problems that need to be cleaned up. These include accurate price reporting and the need for greater consistency among the grading services.

C) How do you see coins and gold performing from here on?

I think we’ll see gold break through the $1000 barrier but I’m not really sure where the short-term and medium-term caps are going to be. Perhaps $1250-1500-- after that, who really knows? I think price performance in the coin market is going to be selective. As I mentioned above, the market is becoming more and more bifurcated. I think there are going to be fewer collectors in the future but there will be more extremely rich people dabbling. If you buy the right coins and hold them long enough, you should do well. If you buy so-so or average quality coins you won’t do as well. Investors should learn to think like collectors and buy the sort of collector-quality coins (and, no, the expression “collector quality” does not mean 1901-S quarters in Fine) that have traditionally appreciated well over the course of time.

5. The U.S. Mint is the biggest coin dealer. Are they helping or hurting the coin market? Please explain in detail.

I can’t possibly imagine that it’s helping the coin market that hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on modern products that might (or might not...) be spent on rare coins. At least the Mint is now far more receptive to collectors than in the past and they seem to have extended the olive branch to the collecting community after years and years of disliking us.  

6. Coin grading has come a long way since PCGS started in 1986. A) What further advances are needed? B) How would they impact the market?

I’ve spoken with clients of mine who are involved in hedge funds or private equity groups and most of them won’t do a coin deal because the numbers are just too small. These guys are looking at doing $250 million+ deals (in many cases more than this) and a little $25 million to $50 million coin deal is just too small for them. That said, there is always the chance that a hedge fund guy who loves coins might do a fund as sort of a lark. But every time we’ve seen large funds in the coin market, the results have not been good.

If a fund were to be established, it needs to be run by someone like John Albanese who is very smart and very ethical. I assume that a fund run by someone like John would focus on really rare coins like Proof gold, early type (silver and gold), classic rarities and popular individual issues like High Reliefs, Pan-Pac Octagonal and Round $50’s, etc. This is essentially what the Ohio Fund was focusing on and I think they did a very good job in terms of buying coins and focusing on specific market areas.

7. A) How do you feel about the concept of "seals of approval" on graded coins?

I wish they weren’t needed but I think at this point in time they are a good idea—provided, of course, that the people involved with them are doing it for the right reasons.

B) What will the effects be of such slab labeling?

I think we are already seeing an effect. At least one of the services has become considerably more conservative in their grading in the past six to nine months.

8.Coin auctions: A) What's your best advice to consignors?

1. Don’t assume that auctions are always the best way to sell all coins.

2. Learn which firms sell which types of coins for the most money. As an example, I use one auction firm exclusively for any very low population 20th century coin I own as they get much better prices for these coins than anyone else. Conversely, I use another firm exclusively for more “sophisticated” coins as they do a better job describing them and their audience seems to be a bit more dialed in to these sorts of coins.

3. Don’t choose an auction firm solely based on their consignment rate. You get what you pay for.

4. The best times of the year to sell coins at auction are at FUN in January and at the ANA in July or August.

5. Hire an advisor to help you decide how to best market and sell your collection even if you think you know what you are doing. If you do it totally on your own the chances are good that you will leave money on the table.

B) What's your best advice to bidders?

1. Hire a well-qualified representative to bid for you at auction. It is the best 5% you will ever spend.

2. Never bid sight unseen on any coin at auction worth more than $1,000. And, no, you can’t accurately grade a coin based on images!

3. If you attend an auction in person, come prepared. Know what you what to bid on, what you want to spend and how much you are willing to stretch on any coin.

4. Sometimes the best auctions are the ones you don’t buy out of but which you learn from.  

9. Two sophisticated investors come to you to provide them a portfolio for a 5 to 10 year hold, one investing $25,000, the other $250,000.

A) How would you construct the portfolios?

$25,000 portfolio, as follows:

1. Stars Obverse Liberty Seated Dime, PCGS or NGC MS66, cost $4,000-5,000+. I think this has the potential to be a $7,500 coin.

2. No Motto Liberty Seated Quarter, PCGS or NGC MS65, cost $5,000-7,000+. If possible I would try to find a coin dated in the 1840’s and pay a premium of 20-40% for it. This could easily become a $10,000++ coin.

3. Barber Half Dollar, PCGS MS66, cost $4,000-5,000. I can see this coin becoming worth $7,500-10,000.

4. Liberty Quarter Eagle, PCGS or NGC PR65 Cameo, cost $12,500-15,000. I think this has the potential to become a $20,000 coin.

For the silver coins, I would try to buy very pretty originally toned pieces and for the Proof gold coin I’d try to find a coin that was not over-conserved.

$250,000 portfolio as follows:

1. A neat early copper coin, such as a 1793 half cent in AU or a nice Wreath cent or a pretty 1794 Cent with a good pedigree. I would avoid a Chain Cent as I think these are currently overpriced. I’d spend around $25,000 on this coin and I think it has the potential to double in the next five years.

2. A cool $25,000 early silver coin. It might be a really nice AU 1795 half dollar or a very pretty early dollar (preferably a 1796, 1797 or 1798).

3. A Large Size Bust Quarter in PCGS or NGC MS65. I’d be very selective when buying this coin and would hold out for a coin that had great original color, minimal friction on Liberty’s cheek and a good strike. I’d be willing to spend up to $25,000 on the right coin. This type could be worth $35,000-45,000 in a really hot market.

4. A great looking piece of early gold in the $25,000-35,000 range. I might look for a nice MS63 to MS64 Capped Bust Right half eagle or a Fat Head half eagle (1813, 1814, 1818 or 1820) in MS63. Again, I’d be ultra-selective and avoid a piece that has been processed. Although early gold has gone up a lot in price in the last five years, nice coins still have upside potential.

5. A small group (four to six coins) of Colonials priced in the $2,500-5,000 per coin range. I would use an expert in this area to be my guide and would shoot for coins that he thought were accurately graded and really attractive for the issue. This is a $10,000-20,000 investment that could double in the next decade.

6. A really neat New Orleans half eagle or eagle from the 1840’s worth $20,000-25,000 would be my next purchase. Having focused a significant amount of attention on these coins in the last few years, I know how incredibly rare they are and I think they are still wildly undervalued.

7. I’d finish the portfolio off with one or more of the following: a great piece of Proof gold from the 19th century, preferably in PR65 or higher and preferably with an original mintage figure of less than 50 coins; a few great No Motto Liberty Seated silver coins, preferably No Motto mintmarked coins in MS63 to MS65 with pleasing original color and a few neat collector coins—things like perfect EF Carson City half dollars or lovely original AU Bust halves. All of these areas still seem like good values to me and have excellent upside.

New Orleans Double Eagles: An Update

As double eagles are clearly the most popular and highest priced gold coins produced at the New Orleans mint, I thought it would be interesting to update each issue and see what has transpired since the publication of my book "Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint, 1838-1909" last year. Taken as a whole, the market for these issues remains extremely strong. There are clearly a number of wealthy collectors who are assembling sets and when the "stoppers" become available for sale, they inevitably bring record prices. It is interesting to note that virtually every date in this series has set a new auction price record since my book was published in 2006. It is also interesting to note that, despite the strength of this market, auctions are not flooded with interesting New Orleans double eagles. The supply/demand ratio for these coins seems to be working just fine.

1850-O A new auction record was set in December 2006 when Heritage sold an NGC MS60 for $49,444. In addition, an auction record was set for an AU58 when Heritage sold a PCGS graded example for $40,251 in June 2007 (interestingly, the exact same coin had brought $34,500 in Heritage’s May 2007 sale). These prices show that demand for high grade, choice 1850-O double eagles is currently very high and if a really nice Mint State piece were to become available, I think it would easily set a record price. I have noticed some price resistance for lower end 1850-O double eagles in the EF45 to AU55. Collectors realize that they can afford to be reasonably fussy when it comes to this date and if the surfaces of a specific example are heavily abraded, the coin will sell at a discount.

1851-O I set a record price for an 1851-O double eagle when I paid $48,875 for a beautiful PCGS MS62 in the Heritage 2006 ANA sale. Interestingly, this is the only high grade 1851-O that has traded publicly since the release of my book in 2006. Until a few years ago, I used to see fairly high grade (AU55 and above) examples of this date with some degree of regularity. This does not seem to be the case anymore which leads me to conclude that either this issue is scarcer than I once believed or that most of the better pieces are in tightly held collections. The 1851-O has a similar Trends value to the 1852-O in higher grade but I feel it should sell for a 10-20% premium.

1852-O I set another record price at Heritage’s 2006 ANA sale when I paid $48,875 for a choice PCGS MS62 1852-O double eagle. Another high quality coin (this piece was graded MS60 by NGC) realized a strong $34,500 in the Heritage October 2006 sale. For a point in time between 2005 and early 2007, it seemed that unattractive, overgraded AU55 and AU58 1852-O double eagles were everywhere. These were selling for levels up to $12,000-14,000 for 58’s which, if you ask me, is a lot of money for a not very nice and not very rare New Orleans double eagle. I believe that nice, accurately graded AU55 and AU58 examples are still scarce but they seem fully valued at current levels. In Uncirculated, the 1852-O is clearly a rare and very desirable coin.

1853-O If there is one New Orleans double eagle that needs a major adjustment in Trends, it is the 1853-O. Current Trends values are $2,000 in EF40, $2,500 in EF45 and $4,500 in AU50. These numbers were probably accurate in 2000-2002 but they are long out-of-date. In 2007, Heritage sold two EF45 1853-O double eagles in their auctions. The first was an NGC EF45 that brought $4,025 in August. The second was a PCGS EF45 that sold for $5,750 in February. Both were decent but neither were PQ or nice enough that they were purchased by dealers as potential "crackout" candidates. I would suggest that Trends be raised to at least $4,000 in EF40 and $6,000 in EF45. A new auction price record for this date was set in August 2006 when an NGC MS61 realized $34,626 in Heritage’s ANA sale. I personally think the 1853-O is a tougher coin in AU55 and higher grades than I once believed and I would not be surprised to see values continue to rise for this issue.

1854-O I’ve come to a pretty major revelation as far as the 1854-O goes. For many years I believed the 1854-O was actually the second rarest double eagle from New Orleans, both in terms of overall and high grade rarity. After carefully observing these two dates for the past few years I now believe that the 1854-O is very slightly rarer in terms of overall rarity and unquestionably scarcer in terms of its high grade rarity. In looking at auction records, it is interesting to note that since 2002, a total of ten 1854-O double eagles have sold in comparison to nine 1856-O double eagles. In this same period, I know of another three or four of each date that have sold via private treaty. I feel that my estimate of 25-35 known for the 1854-O may be a bit on the high side and that the total number known is possibly as low as 20 or coins. In higher grades (in this case AU50 and above) the 1854-O is clearly a rarer coin than the 1856-O. PCGS shows a total of nine coins in AU but only three grade AU55 with none better. I have seen the majority of the 1854-O’s graded AU50 by PCGS and almost all of them are underwhelming, to say the least. I know of only one relatively choice 1854-O (the Dallas Bank Collection coin now owned by a prominent Midwestern collector and graded AU58 by NGC) and only one or two others that, by my standards, grade AU55. (NOTE: I have never seen the NGC AU58 from the S.S. Republic so I do not feel qualified to comment on its quality).

A new auction price record was set for the 1854-O double eagle in August 2007 when a PCGS AU55 sold for $494,500.

1855-O Something odd has happened with this date in regards to its availability. As recently as a few years ago, 1855-O double eagles were seen fairly regularly in higher grades. In fact, at one point (around 2002?) I owned two very nice PCGS AU55’s at the same time and right after I had sold the second of these, I bought yet another. But in the last few years, the supply has almost totally dried up. Heritage’s auction archives shows a total of 17 having been sold since 2002 but I am certain this includes a number of re-offerings plus at least a few lower grade or problem coins. The strong demand for higher grade 1855-O double eagles was clearly seen a month ago when a PCGS AU55 brought $57,500 at auction which is a pretty impressive price when one considers that Trends is only $40,000. This amount is an all-time auction record and I think if a nice AU58 were to become available in the next few months it could bring close to six-figures.

1856-O As I mentioned above, I am now of the opinion that while very similar in overall rarity to the 1854-O, I think my original estimate of 20-30 remains accurate with the total number known probably somewhere in the low end of this range. In AU50 and better, the 1856-O is more available than the 1854-O and there are definitely a few more "nice" examples known than for the 1854-O.

In my book, I think I did a poor job of providing Condition Census information for the 1856-O and here is a listing of the best pieces of which I am currently aware:

1. Private collection, ex: Heritage 6/04: 6372 ($542,800). Graded SP63 by NGC. 2. Midwestern private collection. Graded AU58 by PCGS. Probably ex: Eliasberg: 889. PCGS shows a second coin having been graded AU58. I am reasonably certain that it is not coin #2 but am not aware of its pedigree. NGC also shows two coins graded AU58. One is listed below; the other is not listed as I am not yet certain which example it is. 3. New England collection, ex: Doug Winter 12/07. Graded AU55 by PCGS. 4. Arlington collection, ex: Heritage 7/05: 10399 ($431,250), Bowers and Merena 10/99: 1711 ($105,800; as PCGS AU53), Harry Bass collection. Graded AU55 by PCGS. There are two other coins listed as AU55 by PCGS. I am not certain that these exist but it is possible that coin #6 below may have crossed from an NGC holder to a PCGS holder. 5. Private collection, ex: Bowers and Merena 3/07: 5597 ($356,500; as PCGS AU53). Graded AU58 by NGC. 6. Heritage 7/02: 9472 ($132,250), ex: "Midwestern collection." Graded AU55 by NGC. One of the coins listed above may be the example from the Amon Carter collection listed in the first edition of my New Orleans book.

1857-O No new Condition Census quality examples of this date have turned up in the last two years. There have been a few nice AU55 and AU58s that have sold at auction and I can recall at least one MS60 coin trading privately. I have yet to see any of the Uncirculated coins from S. S. Republic and would be very interested to know how they compare to the non-salvaged high grade pieces that exist. In my opinion, Trends in lower grades needs to be raised significantly. The current listings show $2,500 for an EF40, $4,000 for an EF45 and $5,500 for an AU50. Given the fact that examples in these grades bring way over Trends when they are sold at auction, I would suggest that levels be raised to $5,000 in EF40, $7,000 in EF45 and $10,000 in AU50.

1858-O The all-time auction price record for this date was tied in February 2007 when an NGC MS61 sold for $50,600. This is the same amount that Bass III: 795 brought when it was sold back in May 2000. The difference in quality between these two coins is very significant, however, as the Bass piece is extremely choice. A fair number of nice AU55 and AU58 1858-O double eagles have been available in the last two years and these have brought nearly full Trends (or in some cases over this amount). In EF40 and EF45, Trends seems low ($3,500 and $4,500, respectively) and these values need to be increased.

1859-O The 1859-O has remained an extremely scarce coin in higher grades and the last two choice pieces that have sold at auction (an NGC 55 and a PCGS 55) brought $54,625 and $66,125, respectively. My guess is that the current auction record of $92,000 (set in January 2005 with the sale of a very high end PCGS AU58) will probably be broken within the next year or two; or whenever a Condition Census example becomes available. The certified populations of this date seem to have become somewhat inflated. PCGS shows a total of 42 graded but 26 of these (or almost 62%) are in the various AU grades. My guess is that both AU50 and AU53 populations are inflated plus these include some pieces that are enthusiastically graded. The NGC populations in the higher AU grades are, as expected, a disaster. The current census shows ten in AU55 and eleven in AU58. The less said about these figures, the better.

1860-O A new auction record was set in November 2007 when a PCGS AU58 sold for an astonishing $83,375. But as high as this price seems, when one considers that there are only four 1860-O double eagles graded AU58 by this service, you have to figure that the demand level for high grade 1860-O double eagles will continue to soar. Interestingly, in January 2004, Heritage sold another PCGS AU58; it brought $48,875. The finest known 1860-O remains the PCGS AU58 in a Midwestern collection that is ex: Eliasberg and Atwater. I hate to harp on NGC and their population figures, but here is another date where the current figures from this service are ridiculous. 16 coins graded AU58? I don’t think so...

1861-O The previous auction record of $37,375 has been broken no less than six times since the publication of my book. The current auction record is $51,750 set by Bowers and Merena in March 2007 for the sale of a coin graded AU55 by PCGS. Auction records for AU examples have been fairly plentiful in the past few years. I attribute this to a few factors. The first is that prices have raised enough that a few choice pieces have come out of hiding and onto the market. Secondly, a few of the AU53 to AU55 coins have bounced around from auction to auction; in some cases morphing from NGC to PCGS or upgrading. Finally, I believe that grading standards have loosened more for this particular date than probably any other New Orleans double eagle.

1879-O A very important newly discovered 1879-O was handled by myself and dealer John Dannreuther at the 2006 ANA. This coin was conservatively graded MS60 by NGC and it was notable for having lovely original color and surfaces as well as uncharacteristic satiny luster. It was sold to a New England collector. There are now four or five Uncirculated 1879-O double eagles known to me. Price levels for this date have skyrocketed in nearly all grades in the last few years. In the not-so-distant past, you could buy a decent VF 1879-O double eagle for $3,000-4,000, an EF40 for around $5,000 and a nice EF45 for $7,000 or so. Today, marginal quality VF’s are bringing $20,000-30,000 at auction while EF’s are now worth $30,000+.

New Orleans double eagles have become one of the more popular areas in the current coin market. They are also clearly one of the more challenging and expensive coins to collect. There are only thirteen issues in the series but virtually all of them are hard to find in higher grades and nearly all are expensive as well.

What does the future hold for this area of the market? I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices for marginal quality coins begin to drop as I find it hard to imagine that collectors will, for example, continue to pay $25,000 for a not especially attractive VF example of an 1879-O. But I would not be surprised to see prices continue to rise for the very rare issues (1854-O and 1856-O) and further price increases for the second-level rarities as well (1855-O, 1859-O, 1860-O).