Dahlonega Gold Coins: An Overall And Comparative Analysis
/Using the revised estimated populations of specific issues in the second edition of my book, it is possible to make some interesting observations and conclusions regarding Dahlonega coinage. As an example, it is possible to estimate an average number of survivors for each denomination, a percentage of survivors by grade and an overall percentage of survival for a entire denomination. I. GOLD DOLLARS
ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION/NUMBER EXTANT: 1,295 - 1,435 TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUES STRUCK: 13 AVERAGE EXTANT PER ISSUE: 115 - 131
TOTAL EXTANT BY GRADE:
Very Fine and Below: 291 - 346 Extremely Fine: 601 - 672 About Uncirculated: 483 - 538 Uncirculated: 120 - 154
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY GRADE:
Very Fine and Below: 19.46 - 20.23 Extremely Fine: 39.29 - 40.20 About Uncirculated: 31.46 - 32.30 Uncirculated: 8.02 - 9.00
ORIGINAL MINTAGE FIGURE, ALL ISSUES: 73,529 - 74,029
(NOTE: The original mintage figure for the gold dollar series as a whole is expressed as a range due to the fact that the exact original mintage figure for the 1861-D is not known).
ESTIMATED SURVIVAL RATE: 2.03 - 2.30%
(NOTE: This range of survival rates is, again, based on the fact that the original mintage figure for the 1861-D is unknown but it is believed to be 1,000-1,500 coins).
ANALYSIS: This data clearly shows that gold dollars are easier to locate in higher grades than their quarter eagle and half eagle counterparts (see below). The average number of coins known per issue is a bit lower than one might expect. But, given the small size of these coins, it is a wonder that as many have survived as are known today.
It is interesting to note the survival rate for other gold dollars. For branch mint coins struck in the pre-Civil War era, we can generally assume that only one to two percent of the original mintage figures still exists. The range of estimates which are listed above fit in nicely within these parameters.
Dahlonega gold dollars are more available in higher grades (i.e. About Uncirculated and Uncirculated) than the quarter eagles and half eagles from this mint. Approximately 40% of all known Dahlonega gold dollars grade About Uncirculated or Uncirculated and approximately 80% grade Extremely Fine or better. This is considerably higher than for the other denominations. This suggests at least two things: that Dahlonega gold dollars did not circulate as long and as "hard" as the other denominations and that relatively substantial quantities of Dahlonega gold dollars have become available to collectors as the result of hoards and/or accumulations. Another possible explanation for the high survival rate in higher grades might be that their small size did not make them as attractive to melters as the large-sized gold issues and they were more likely to survive.
The overall populations of many dates in the gold dollar series have been underestimated for many years. As an example, in the 1960's and the 1970's it had been written that "fewer than a dozen" 1856-D gold dollars were known. We now know that the actual number of 1856-D gold dollars in existence is more like 80-90. One of the reasons for the overstating of the rarity of the 1856-D (along with the 1854-D, 1855-D, 1860-D and 1861-D) is that these issues had tiny original mintage figures. The 1856-D is a good choice to illustrate this. Only 1,460 pieces were struck. Using the assumption that between 0.27 and 1.14% of these pieces should exist (the estimated survival rates for Dahlonega quarter eagles and half eagles from this mint; see below) one can see how an estimate of "fewer than a dozen" might have come about. Dahlonega gold dollars are a good example of the adage that you can't judge the rarity of a specific issue solely by its original mintage figure.
II. QUARTER EAGLES
ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION/NUMBER EXTANT: 2,345 - 2,715 TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUES STRUCK: 20 AVERAGE EXTANT PER ISSUE: 117.25 - 135.75
TOTAL EXTANT BY GRADE:
Very Fine and Below: 832 - 901 Extremely Fine: 862 - 975 About Uncirculated: 561 - 653 Uncirculated: 90 - 106
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY GRADE:
Very Fine and Below: 33.18 - 35.47 Extremely Fine: 35.91 - 36.75 About Uncirculated: 23.92 - 24.05 Uncirculated: 3.83 - 3.90
ORIGINAL MINTAGE FIGURE, ALL ISSUES: 197,850
ESTIMATED SURVIVAL RATE: 1.18 - 1.37%
ANALYSIS: Quarter eagles are the rarest of the three primary Dahlonega gold denominations, both in terms of their overall rarity and their rarity in high grades. Around 70% of all known Dahlonega quarter eagles are in lower grades - i.e. Extremely Fine and below. This shows that quarter eagles saw greater circulation than gold dollars and that fewer were saved.
With only 4% or so of all the known Dahlonega quarter eagles grading Uncirculated, one can properly assume that any date is very rare in this grade. With the exception of a small handful of issues (such as the 1839-D, 1844-D, 1847-D, 1848-D and 1857-D), Dahlonega quarter eagles have Uncirculated populations which generally number from one to five pieces. Since the demand for very high grade examples is far greater than the supply, it can be assumed that values for such pieces should rise.
According to the estimates above, it is possible that fewer than 1.4% of all the Dahlonega quarter eagles originally struck have survived. If these numbers are correct, the survival rate for these coins is below the average for American gold coins struck prior to the Civil War.
III. HALF EAGLES
ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION/NUMBER EXTANT: 3,940 - 4,560 TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUES STRUCK: 25 (NOTE: The 1846-D Normal Mintmark and the 1846 D over D Mintmark are included as one issue) AVERAGE EXTANT PER ISSUE: 157.60 - 182.40
TOTAL EXTANT BY GRADE:
Very Fine and Below: 1,623 - 1,841 Extremely Fine: 1,389 - 1,611 About Uncirculated: 759 - 892 Uncirculated: 167 - 214
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY GRADE:
Very Fine and Below: 40.37 - 41.19 Extremely Fine: 35.25 - 35.32 About Uncirculated: 19.26 - 19.56 Uncirculated: 4.23 - 4.69
ORIGINAL MINTAGE FIGURE, ALL ISSUES: 1,096,544
ESTIMATED SURVIVAL RATE: 0.35 - 0.41%
ANALYSIS: Half eagles are the most plentiful denomination from the Dahlonega in terms of the total number of coins which exist. This makes sense since the original mintage figure is six times greater for half eagles than for quarter eagles and over sixty times greater than for gold dollars.
In terms of relative rarity, half eagles are also the most common Dahlonega denomination. An average of 157-182 examples exist per issue; a figure which is significantly greater than either the quarter eagles or gold dollars from this mint.
What is surprising is the survival rate of half eagles when viewed as a whole. According to the numbers above, around four-tenths of one per cent of all Dahlonega half eagles have survived. If these figures are correct (and there is certainly the possibility that my population estimates are too low), then the survival rate for this denomination is significantly lower than for gold dollars and half eagles.
There are some plausible explanations for this. Half eagles were "workhorse" coins and saw longer periods of circulation. Due to their greater intrinsic value, they were more likely to have been melted. Their greater face value (and intrinsic worth) made it less likely that quantities would have been put away or "lost."
In terms of actual numbers, there are a fairly significant amount of higher grade (About Uncirculated and better) Dahlonega half eagles in existence. But taken as a percentage of the total number of known coins--approximately 23 to 24%-- the number of high grade coins is actually lower than for gold dollars and quarter eagles. It is my opinion, however, that high grade quarter eagles are still the most difficult coins from the Dahlonega Mint to locate.
There is little difference in comparative rarity between Very Fine and Extremely Fine Dahlonega half eagles. The price levels between choice Very Fine coins and lower quality Extremely Fine coins are greater than they should be and it is likely that these levels will grow closer over the course of time. Conversely, the supply of truly choice half eagles is more limited than generally believed and as the demand for these increases, such coins will show strong price appreciation.
IV. OVERALL ANALYSIS OF DAHLONEGA GOLD COINAGE
By taking the numbers above, we can get a more comprehensive analysis of the various Dahlonega issues.
DENOM. GRADES TOTAL VF EF AU MS
$1.00 291-346 601-672 483-538 120-154 1295-1435
$2.50 832-901 862-975 561-653 90-106 2345-2715
$3.00 47-54 29-40 22-27 2-4 100-125
$5.00 1623-1841 1389-1611 759-892 167-214 3940-4560
TOTALS: 2793-3142 2881-2110 1825-2110 379-478 7680-8835
These numbers prove a number of interesting things about Dahlonega gold coinage. Some of the more important points are as follows:
The total number of Dahlonega gold coins that exists is probably under 10,000 pieces. Since fewer than 1.5 million coins were originally struck at this mint, this means that the overall survival rate is around two-thirds of one per cent.
Dahlonega gold coins are of nearly similar rarity in Very Fine and Extremely Fine grades. They are about 50% scarcer in About Uncirculated than Extremely Fine and they are very rare in Uncirculated.
Around five percent of the surviving Dahlonega gold coins grade Mint State. However, when one omits the few issues that are common in high grades, such as the 1849-D and 1859-D gold dollars and the 1853-D and 1856-D half eagles, this percentage drops appreciably.
Gold dollars are much more available in high grades than the other denominations. From a percentage standpoint, the rarest denomination in high grades is the quarter eagle.
The market capitalization for high grade Dahlonega gold coinage is much lower than one might think. As an example, let's assume that the median value of all Uncirculated issues from this mint is $15,000. There are approximately 379-478 Uncirculated Dahlonega coins known. An investor could buy all the known coins for $5.685 to 7.170 million. It is not likely that this person would be able to acquire every known Uncirculated Dahlonega coin but it is interesting to note that the dollar value of these coins is not absurdly high.
