The State of the Southern Gold Market, Summer 2024

2022 will go down in numismatic history as one of the all-time great years for availability of fresh, high-grade Southern gold coinage.

You had the Stack’s Bowers Hendricks sale in April 2022 which contained the cream of the Fairmont hoard half eagles, eagles, and double eagles, as well as the Stack’s Bowers sale of the John Sykes Collection in August 2022, which was among the nicer sets of Dahlonega dollars through half eagles sold in the last decade. And you can’t forget the DWN sale of the Auraria Collection of Dahlonega, as well as our offering of important duplicates from the New England Collection of New Orleans gold.

Despite a seemingly ultra-hot market for certain Southern gold coins, the market saw very little activity in 2023. This was surprising to me as prices had increased enough in a fairly short period of time that owners of the right coins in this area of the market who identified more as investors than as collectors would seem to have been shoo-ins to sell for a short profit rather than to play the long game; the strategy of most collectors.

The Great Southern Gold Draught of 2023-2024 finally came to an end in August 2024, when Stack’s Bowers offered the Srotag Collection which had a strong emphasis on PCGS/CAC Dahlonega and New Orleans issues.

The following coins are some of my personal favorites from the sale. They were chosen based on the quality of the coin offered for sale, as well as my level of interest in the specific date or coin being offered for sale.

LOT 3262, 1850-O $1.00 PCGS MS63+ CAC - FROM THE DWN ARCHIVES

LOT 3262, 1850-O GOLD DOLLAR, PCGS/CAC MS63+

Unless you follow this series, you are likely not aware of the rarity of this date in MS63 and higher grades. The Srotag coin is the sole example of this date in MS63+ with just two finer (both in MS64). Even more impressive is the CAC population for higher grade 1850-O gold dollars which is currently at one in MS63, one in MS63+ and none finer.

I sold this coin to the Srotag Collection back in 2019 for just $6,500 (a number that seems so cheap that I am shocked that I didn’t decide to stash it away for a few years). It brought $18,000 in the Stack’s Bowers sale, which is a solid price, but I can make a compelling argument that this should have been a $25,000+ coin.

LOT 3270, 1857-D $1.00 NGC MS62

LOT 3270, 1857-D GOLD DOLLAR, NGC MS62.

I liked the coin as a legitimate MS62 and thought it had a shot to cross to PCGS at this grade. It is very scarce in MS62 and extremely rare any finer.

The coin brought $24,000 all-in, which seems cheap given the silly PCGS Price Guide and the inflated CDN Bid numbers. APRs were of no real use for the 1857-D in MS62, as the last sale for such a coin was all the way back in April 2016. In my opinion, the price realized was actually pretty strong for a non-CAC NGC coin.

lot 3287, 1855-D $2.50 PCGS EF45 CAC

LOT 3287, 1855-D QUARTER EAGLE, PCGS/CAC EF45

Although it was in an old green label holder, I saw this coin strictly as product; meaning I felt it had no chance to upgrade if it were resubmitted. I didn’t love the coin but I liked it well enough to put in a cheap bid of $16,000. It brought $26,400 which seems expensive if you look at the published pricing information for 1855-D quarter eagles, but which if you really know the series and the current market is actually a pretty good deal.

The PCGS Price Guide levels for this date are way too low in my opinion, with EF45s shown with a $17,000 guesstimation and a very low $21,000 in AU50. Given the fact that no PCGS EF45 1855-D quarter eagles have sold at auction since March 2010 when a PCGS coin brought $6,325, the current valuation is off because there have been no trades to alert the compiler(s) of the PCGS values that their numbers are too low.

It is my opinion that as of the day this article is being written (8/24/2024) the 1855-D quarter eagle is the single most undervalued coin from this mint. However, this is likely to change soon when the PCGS Price Guide is updated to reflect the sale of this exact coin in the Stack’s Bowers auction.

lot 3288 1856-D $2.50 gold coin graded PCGS AU58 CAC

1856-D $2.50 pcgs au58 cac

LOT 3288, 1856-D QUARTER EAGLE, PCGS/CAC AU58

As recently as a few years ago, I wrote that the 1856-D quarter eagle was among the most undervalued coins from this mint. After the sale of this coin in the SB 2024 ANA auction for $120,000, this is no longer a true statement.

In 2022, we saw two six-figure sales for comparatively high -grade 1856-D quarter eagles. The first was a PCGS/CAC AU55 which brought $102,000 as Heritage 2022 ANA: 4017, while the second was a PCGS/CAC AU58 at a record-setting $144,000.

With there now being three APRs over 100K for nice AU examples, the 1856-D is officially not undervalued any longer. It should be stressed that only PCGS/CAC coins sell for big bucks. In the Srotag Collection, a non-CAC PCGS AU53 which in all honesty, I liked more than the PCGS/CAC AU58, sold for a much more reasonable $46,800.

lot 3299, 1854-D $3.00 PCGS AU58 CAC

LOT 3299, 1854-D THREE DOLLAR, PCGS/CAC AU58

I wasn’t crazy about this coin. It was just OK for the grade, as it lacked the natural deep coloration which some of the other recent higher grade 1854-D threes have shown. It wasn’t a bad coin; it just wasn’t a nice coin.

I totally understand how this issue has become so expensive in PCGS/CAC AU55 and AU58. It a sensible grade for most high-budget collectors, and the demand for these still exceeds the supply; at least for PCGS/CAC examples. But do I agree with these levels? That’s another story.

This coin brought $138,000 and this represents the ninth ever $100,000+ APR for an 1854-D three dollar gold piece. This includes four coins in PCGS AU58, with three of these approved by CAC, and one coin not approved.

lot 3329, 1840-D $5.00 NGC MS62, ex SSNY

LOT 3329, 1840-D HALF EAGLE, NGC/SSNY MS62

You either like the look of the few known high-grade branch mint half eagles from the SS New York shipwreck or you don’t. I am generally ambivalent regarding this topic but I love high-grade 1840-D half eagles, and I thought this piece was properly graded albeit brighter than what I typically look for when buying a higher grade Southern mint half eagle.

This exact coin brought $31,500 back in July 2008. I bought it for $27,600, and I think this is a reasonable number considering that the PCGS MS61 sold as Lot 3320 in the 2024 ANA sale brought $18,600 despite a very AU-ish appearance in my opinion.

lot 3331, 1840-O $5.00 PCGS MS62, from the DWN Archives

LOT 3331, 1840-O HALF EAGLE, PCGS MS62

I’ve bought and sold this coin on five different occasions. I purchased it for $14,950 in 1999, $25,300 in 2005, $22,325 in 2012, $19,200 in 2020 and—again—in the 2024 Stack’s Bowers auction for $20,400.

I think this coin was exceptional value, and had I not had a good client ask me to represent him on it, I would have purchased it for my personal collection.

Why, you are no doubt wondering, has a coin this rare and this well pedigreed (it is ex Eliasberg/Bass) not found a more permanent home? In my opinion, it is most likely due to its not being approved by CAC. There is some light filminess on the coin—more than likely due to Harry Bass having kept it in the PVC auction flip—in which it was stored until it was sent to PCGS. If this were carefully removed, this coin would absolutely “pop” and it might even upgrade.

lot 3332, 1841-D Dahlonega $5 gold coin graded PCGS MS63 CAC

lot 3332, 1841-d $5.00 pcgs ms63 cac

LOT 3332, 1841-D HALF EAGLE, PCGS/CAC MS63

This nice 1841-D came from my personal collection, and I had sold it to the Srotag Collection for $40,000 around four years ago. It was tied with the nicer of the two 1861-D half eagles for being the highest graded D-mint coin in the sale, and it sold for $63,000. This was a record price for the date and grade.

I felt this was a very strong price, and it showed that any PCGS/CAC southern branch mint half eagle in very high grades remains extremely strong.

lot 3333, 1842-o $5.00 ngc ef45

lot 3342, 1847-O $5.00 PCGS EF40 CAC

LOTS 3333 +3342, 1842-O HALF EAGLE NGC EF45 AND 1847-O HALF EAGLE, PCGS/CAC EF40.

The 1842-O half eagle in the sale was a very nice EF45 which just happened to be in an AU55 holder. The 1847-O was among the nicest examples of this rare date I can recall seeing in any EF grade.

The former sold for $22,800, which is a strong price whether you saw the coin like I did, or like NGC did, while the latter brought $17,400 which is an auction record for the grade but which is still a very good value, in my opinion. I could see a slightly nicer EF 1847-O selling for over $20,000 the next time one is offered. 

lot 3336, 1844-D $5.00 pcgs ms62 cac

LOT 3336, 1844-D HALF EAGLE, PCGS/CAC MS62

I had to stretch to buy this choice coin, and I wound-up spending $28,800 for it.

There is just one APR for a PCGS MS62 1844-D $5.00, and it was for a non-CAC that brought $15,000 in the Heritage 2022 ANA sale.

Lot 3345 in the sale, an 1852-D half eagle in PCGS/CAC MS62 sold for $24,000 and it was not as nice a as the 1844-D which I figure validates my purchase.

lot 3338, 1845-o $5.00 pcgs ms62 cac

LOT 3338, 1845-O HALF EAGLE, PCGS/CAC MS62

This coin has a dirty little secret that no one who has catalogued or graded it since it first came on the market some 50+ years ago has mentioned. It has matte surfaces from exposure to seawater, and it should be in a “details” holder.

Despite this, it brought a very strong $39,600.

lot 3349, 1846-O $5 PCGS MS61

LOT 3349, 1856-O HALF EAGLE, PCGS MS61

Not every better-date southern half eagle had to be CAC approved to sell for a record price. This 1856-O was a coin that looked more like a nice slider to me than a real BU, but it still set a record for the date/grade at $25,200.

This same coin had previously sold at auction for $14,950 in 2011, and for $13,800 in 2000.

lot 3350, 1857-D $5.00 pcgs ms62 CAC

LOT 3350, 1857-D HALF EAGLE, PCGS/CAC MS62

Considering its rarity in this grade, I felt that this coin went a bit on the cheap side at $27,600. It has a CAC population of one with zero finer, which made it seem like it was worth in the mid-30s.

lot 3351, 1857-O $5.00 PCGS AU58

LOT 3351, 1857-O HALF EAGLE, PCGS AU58

I didn’t care for this coin at all, but it still sold for a strong price: $20,400.

Here was a coin which had supporting data verifying it to be a $20,000+ coin: an APR of $22,800 for a PCGS AU58 (8/2022), and another sale of $31,200 (4/2022).

But here was the rub: both of those coins were gorgeous with CAC approval, while the Srotag coin was just average quality and worth more like $13,000-15,000 in my opinion.

LOTS 3355+ 3356, 1861-D HALF EAGLES, PCGS/CAC MS63 AND PCGS/CAC MS62

These two coins represent two extremes for this celebrated issue.

Lot 3355, 1861-D $5.00 PCGS MS63 CAC

Lot 3355 is the undisputed second finest known 1861-D and it is lovely for the grade. It previously sold for $282,000 in late 2020, and in this most recent sale it went for $336,000; a record for this issue.

lot 3356, 1861-D $5.00 pcgs ms62 cac

Lot 3356 is the poster child for a coin that has been around too many chemicals and is now a gross blend of purple and Cheeto orange as a result. It went cheaply at $144,000 and hopefully, it will be conserved by its new owner.

 

What did I learn from this auction?

Dahlonega gold is still very strong, although buyers are choosier than they were during 2022 price inflation.

New Orleans shows selected areas of strength. Prices remains strong for nice PCGS scarce and rare dates, but are weaker for coins which are not all there.

No significant Charlotte coins were in the auction, and therefore there is no significant data to interpret

Let’s work together to build a set of Southern gold. For more information, contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.