Ten Things I'm Looking Forward to Doing/Seeing at the Philly ANA

The annual Summer ANA show is a highlight on any collector's or dealer's calendar. This is my 30th in a row to attend and I am very much looking forward to the show, especially as it appears to be the last ANA that will be held on the east coast for many years. Here's a list of at least ten things that I'm excited about doing and seeing next week in Philadelphia: 1. Having a Mystery Guest Sighting: Without fail, every year at ANA always brings out at least one "mystery guest." Typically, it's a dealer who left the market and have been unseen for years or it's a collector who I haven't seen since the late 1980's who has decided to wander in because he heard that the ANA show was close to his house. I wonder who it will be this year?

2. Attending the Battle Born Sale. I'm very interested in this sale for a number of reasons. I sold many of the coins to the owner and am curious to see how they do at auction. I am excited to go "head to head" with the sharpest rare date gold buyers in the business as we compete to buy coins for clients and for stock. In the not so distant past, it wasn't uncommon to have big specialized sales like this that all the big players attended in person. I'm hoping that during this sale I'm able to see who I am bidding against, and it will go a long way to answering my questions about the State of the Market for Carson City coinage.

3. Having Something Great Walk Up to My Table: Every dealer hopes this will happen at an ANA show: a well-dressed man walks up to the table with a run of 19th century proof sets that he wants to sell for his elderly parents or a little old lady walks up with an original roll of Saints. These things DO happen from time to time and the fact that we are in Philadelphia, the cradle of American numismatics, bodes well for something exciting walking into the show. So if you are reading this blog, great-grandson of James Longacre, please come to tables 805-807 first and ask for me by name!

4. Wearing Nice Clothes in the 95 Degree/100 % Humidity Philly Summer As excited as I am to spend a week in Philadelphia, I'm going to miss the nearly perfect summer we've had so far in the Northwest. It's been under 80 degrees nearly every day here and I haven't had the air conditioner on once. While I'd like to attend the ANA show in my typical Portland Summer Uniform of polo shirt, shorts and sneakers, I feel this wouldn't be appropriate and will, instead, be suited-up every day. Sigh...

5. Viewing the ANA Exhibits. One of my favorite things to do at the show every year is to take thirty minutes off and go view the competitive and non-competitive exhibits. I still am eager to learn about areas of numismatics I know little about, and to see great U.S. coins that I haven't viewed before. It is always fun for me to do this and I always learn which dealers are true coin weenies when I get a text(s) during the show telling me "you have to see (such and such) coin at the Smithsonian or ANS exhibit."

6. Going to The Barnes Museum. Is it wrong for me to admit that I'm actually more excited to see this art museum than I am to attend the coin show? If you have a teeny iota of interest in great 19th and 20th century art, you need to go.

7. Eating Breakfast and Lunch Every Day at Reading Market. Two words: Amish Breakfast. And I can already taste the Italian sammies I'll be chowing down on every day. Sure beats typical coin show food! (Let's not even begin to talk about Philly cheese steaks, South Philly noodles and gravy, the Belgian mussels and frites place I went to the last time I was in Philly, cheap and good Chinese food, etc. etc.)

8. Restocking My Depleted Inventory. Back in the day, I would save coins for the ANA show because June and July were typically dead months. Now, with the internet 24/7/365 having taken over all retail businesses, I typically go to ANA with very few fresh coins due to the fact that there is essentially no summer break for the coin market any more. I had an atypically busy July and am now in dire need to buy coins. As are, I would assume, most other dealers. That fact, combined with strong metals prices and a great east coast location, lead me to think that this year's show will be a very good to excellent one.

9. Experiencing the ANA Buzz. To use a sports metaphor, the ANA is the Super Bowl of coin shows. It's a whole lot more exciting for a dealer to be at the ANA for a week than its is to spend three days trapped in the purgatory of a slow regional show where you've realized within thirty minutes that there is nothing to buy but your airline wants $1,000+ to change to an earlier flight. (Note to self: continue to pay the change fees and chalk it up to mental health benefits...). Even though I've been doing this show for 30 years and it has becoming a bit of grind, it is still exciting for me every day to walk in, see the hundreds and hundreds of tables and wondering what will happen, good or bad, on this particular day.

10. Leaving the Show. As I hinted above, the ANA is a lot of work, especially when you are doing the majority of the buying/selling/bidding/schmoozing/running around/answering calls/scheduling...let's just say I stay busy pretty much every minute of the day from 8am until 10pm (or later on some of the big auction nights). I like the action and I love the up-side, but it is very tiring and I have to tell you that when my plane lands in Portland, I might be doing the Pope-kissing-the tarmac routine. Except for the fact that the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday after the show are all 12+ hour days...

See you in Philadelphia!

Factors That Determine a Good Coin Show

I hate to think how much time I’ve spent at coin shows. As an example, I’ve been going to Long Beach for 24 years now. Long Beach shows are held three times a year (that’s 72 Long Beach shows) and I’m there an average of three nights. Which adds up to a total of at least 216 days spent at Long Beach shows or, gulp, nearly three-quarters of a year. There are clearly good coins shows and bad coin shows. What are some of the factors that make a coin show good and why do some thrive while others languish or die?

1. Location: I live in the far upper left corner of the United States so every location is tough for me to get to. But I can endure endless plane flights to Orlando for the FUN show or to Baltimore (two or three times a year) because these are first-rate shows where I do a lot of business. A good coin show needs to be in a heavily populated area and in an area that is regarded as being “good” for coins. It is hard to explain why a wealthy, vibrant city like San Francisco is not a good coin town but it is pretty easy to venture a guess that St. Louis (a site of numerous conventions) is a really bad coin town. New York would seem to be a great location for coin shows but the price of putting on a good show in Manhattan makes it prohibitive for most promoters. I’ve often wondered why there aren’t more shows in Chicago—it’s in the center of the country and home to many collectors but for whatever reason there hasn’t been a major show in downtown Chicago for years.

2. Facilities: I don’t even want to attempt to figure out how many days of my life have been in spent in convention centers across the United States. After a while, the convention center in Pittsburgh seems to blend into the facility in Kansas City which appears to look like the building in Denver. But I will say that a nice, convenient location sure beats spending a few days in the basement of some ratty motel. I can remember coin shows back in the 1980’s that were held in underground garages and others that I half expected my lunch to be carried off by vermin. Unfortunately, a nice facility does not guarantee a good show. The Palm Beach show which died a fast death last year was held in a beautiful new facility in a great city. The bad news was that the closest hotel to this facility was a long walk and just try to get a flight from Portland, Oregon to Palm Beach, Florida…

3. Timing/Conflicts: One of the reasons why everyone loves the FUN show is that it’s held in a (usually) sunny climate in a month that’s traditionally gloomy and awful if you live in much of the non-tropical parts of the country. If the FUN show were held in Boston in January, I don’t think it would quite as popular. Another important factor to consider about a show is its conflicts with the traditional coin circuit. If I were starting a brand new show I would make certain it isn’t competing against a major convention and I would also be sure that it wasn’t being held a week or two after a major show. I suffered from a major case of “show burnout” in 2005 and 2006 and the conventions that I decided not to attend were the ones held too soon after major shows.

4. Public Attendance: This is less of a factor for me today than it might have been in the past. Many of my clients do not attend coin shows and prefer to do business with me via private treaty. And with just a few exceptions, I look at coin shows as opportunities for me to buy and sell coins with dealers. The exceptions to this are the major shows like FUN, ANA, Central States and Baltimore. I typically meet a number of collectors at these shows and I tend to stay longer, in an attempt to be “retail friendly.” The bottom line is that a show with good retail attendance has a much better buzz than a show that seems like a morgue and this translates to a better overall atmosphere.

5. Major Auctions: Every major show has a major auction which is held in conjunction with it. You can have a major auction without a coin show attached to it but you certainly can not have a major show with an auction to bring in collectors. One of the problems that new shows face is the difficulty in getting an auction company to commit to holding a major auction. At this point, the only big show that does not have an auction which I consider first-rate is Baltimore but even this seems to be changing as Bowers and Merena is attracting more interesting and better consignments. At other shows, like FUN or ANA, the problem tends to be too many auctions and not enough time to get these auctions done.

6. Grading Services In Attendance: If PCGS and NGC aren’t at a coin show, no fresh coins get made and the show is a waste of time. This may not necessarily be the case for a collector but for a dealer it goes without saying that “if the coins aren’t being made than the dealers aren’t getting paid.” I can’t think of a single coin show that I’ve attended in the past few years that was worthwhile when one or both of the major services weren’t in attendance.

7. Miscellaneous Factors: I can think of a few other factors that separate the wheat from the chaff as far as shows go. If the best hotel option is a Motel Six, then I’m probably not going to be anxious to get a table at a show. The same goes for the ability to fly into a town. If I’m traveling with coins and I have to change flights three times or fly a tiny commuter plane, I’m either going to come without coins or, better yet, not go at all. Safety is always a factor with me. I do not like going to shows in downtown Detroit or St. Louis because, in all honesty, I don’t feel safe. By the same token, I’ve always thought that suburban venues were sterile and boring and it’s sad when your best dining option after a hard day’s work is Applebee’s.

In summary, I think there are too many coin shows and I, for one, have decided that I will not be attending as many of them in 2007 as I did in 2005 or 2006. I’m not certain if other dealers will do the same (everyone complains about there being too many but everyone is too greedy to not go to every major show) but I predict that whenever the market gets soft, some of the shows that seem healthy now will either contract or fade away altogether.

The ANA That Would Not End

After a few more days at home and having further decompressed from The ANA That Would Not End, I have some further thoughts/observations on the coin market and on the show itself. * I was very surprised to see almost no significant New Orleans gold coins (with the exception of the double eagles in the Heritage Platinum night sale) in any of the auctions or on the bourse floor. I’ve had a number of people call me and express surprise at the paucity of these coins, especially given the fact that my new book on New Orleans gold was just released, ostensibly spurring the market. I think the absence of these coins is due to three reasons. First, many New Orleans gold coins are genuinely scarce in higher grades. Second, the people who own higher grade New Orleans gold appear to be serious collectors who are in no rush to sell. Third, I would guess that at least a few dealers are quietly buying all of the nice higher grade New Orleans gold they can find in anticipation of successful marketing programs based around my new book.

* Early gold remains very much in demand. I usually buy a decent amount of interesting early gold at a show like the ANA and this year I bought just a few pieces. Despite the fact that prices for early gold have risen considerably in the past few years, the demand for nearly any piece (slabbed or raw, nice or ugly) remains very high and shows no signs of immediate cooling. I can’t recall having seen more than a tiny number of Fat Head (1813-1834 issues) gold at the show and most of what I did see was aggressively priced, to say the least. I think this area of the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future but I would not be surprised to see the more common or the less attractive coins start to show weakness in the next year. Any very rare or very nice early gold remains an excellent long-term hold.

* Although I was at my table or scurrying around buying coins most of the time, I did get a chance to look at some of the exhibits. I was sure glad to know that my tax dollars were going towards paying for an armed SWAT team of US Mint Police to guard the gang of 1933 Double Eagles that were on display. An exhibit that I found much more interesting was a small group of rarities from the Smithsonian including an example of the only Liberty Head gold coin that I have never owned or handled: the 1854-S half eagle. The Mint’s specimen (one of either two or three known) is a lovely slider example that would probably grade MS61 to MS62 was it ever to be slabbed by PCGS or NGC. There were also a few amazing Territorial issues including a superb Wass Molitor $50, a very high grade Mormon $20 and a nice group of Clark Gruber issues.

* In addition to my New Orleans gold book, another reference work that was released at the show was John Dannreuther’s work on die varieties of early gold coins. While the topic of this book sounds a bit esoteric, the book is a wonderful source work on early gold with incredible research from Harry Bass’ notes and superb photography. When you look at most coin books, you can always predict that a better version will come along and outdate the work in question. With the Dannreuther book, I think it is safe to say that the final word on the subject has been written and this book will be to early gold as the Crosby book has been to Colonial coinage. I would also expect that the die variety market for early gold will be stimulated and we may finally see rare early gold varieties get the respect that they deserve among well-heeled collectors.

* I did not attend the pre-show(s) this year but every dealer I spoke with told me that they were duds. Having done very well at the last few pre-shows, I was nervous that my decision to punt this year would backfire and prove expensive. It turned out to be the only thing that kept me sane and allowed me to survive The Show That Would Not End. Wouldn’t it be nice if dealers just said “enough!” and decided to limit their ANA Experience to the coin show and one or two of the auctions which occurred immediately prior to the opening of the convention?

* I’m glad I’m not a big player in the generic gold market because you certainly need very large cojones to actively participate in this market. It always seems that support for certain issues mysteriously erodes whenever supplies increase but that when you need a dozen saints in MS65 (as an example) to fill an order supplies are, mysteriously, as tight as a drum. I appreciated the fact that I was able to make some extra money in the generic gold rally that occurred in the months leading up to ANA. I don’t even mind that I had to give some of that money back when levels dropped at the show. But every time the market drops and rises and then drops and rises again I’m glad that I’m a rare gold specialist.

* The initial reaction to my new Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint book was very favorable. If you haven’t already seen a copy of this book, it is the first work I’ve done with color plates and these images, if I don’t mind saying so, are superb. Unlike most books that employ useless black and white plates, these color images are so lifelike that you’ll (almost) be able to learn how to grade just from looking at the pictures. I sold quite a few hundred books at the show and my publisher tells me that the book is literally flying off the shelves. Well, maybe not flying off the shelves but it is selling pretty decently. Seriously, it’s a great book and you should buy a copy or two for your library. Visit www.transline.com for ordering information.

Denver ANA Summary

The Denver ANA Convention can, for me at least, be described in one word: disappointing. I had said, in print, that I thought the 2006 would be a very strong show. What I forgot to factor in when I wrote this was that there would be three pre-show auctions which would siphon off well over $75 million of money that would have ordinarily been spent on the bourse floor. I have already mentioned the ANR sale, so I won’t go into greater detail. I did not attend the Superior sale (I decided to go home for the weekend and this was probably the only reason I was able to make it through a very grueling week of coin trading…) but I heard from a number of participants that coins went fairly cheaply and there were some excellent values to be had, especially on generic issues.

Heritage Platinum night was the final auction before the show began. I thought the selection of rare date gold was one of the weakest in recent Platinum night history. However, there were some interesting pieces that did extremely well. This included a lovely PCGS MS61 1796 No Stars quarter eagle that brought over $350,000. Most of the higher grade Charlotte and Dahlonega coins were bought back by consignors but a superb PCGS MS63 1856-C half eagle brought close to $50,000. Proof gold seemed strong as well which is no surprise given the fact that there was almost no notable Proof gold on the bourse floor.

The most interesting group of coins in the Platinum night sale was a run of Type One and Type Two double eagles from the Wyoming Collection. I purchased many of the higher quality New Orleans double eagles at levels that I felt were not cheap but not ridiculous. I wasn’t shocked by the prices that the 1854-O and the 1856-O brought ($287,500 and $316,250, respectively) as pre-sale Internet bidding was very strong for both of these coins. The highlight of the collection was the 1861 Paquet in PCGS MS61 which is one of just two pieces known. It sold to an Internet bidder for $1,610,000 which is a world record price for any Liberty Head gold coin at public auction.

The show itself began on Tuesday with PNG day. This is usually the slowest day of the show but even by usual standards this year’s edition was tremendously slow. In fact, the convention room was so lackluster and buzz-free that there were times I was very seriously wondering if we weren’t witnessing a Market Meltdown ala the infamous 1980 Central States show in Omaha where a roaring bull market ended with a whimper.

Things picked up somewhat on Wednesday and I thought that Thursday was fairly busy, although not nearly as much so for me as at previous ANA shows. Friday was my best day. I sold a number of expensive coins and met a few very interesting new collectors who are contemplating serious commitments in the arena of 19th and 20th century gold coinage.

For me one of the highlights was getting to see the collection of Bust Quarters formed by the Pogue family. It was on display at a dealer’s table and Brett Pogue showed me the coins individually and discussed their pedigrees. The Pogue collection is probably the single greatest collection of American coins formed during the modern era. I’ve had a chance to see a number of the coins in the collection and I can’t recall having ever seen a piece that was not exquisite. The hallmark of the collection is originality and it was amazing how evenly matched these coins were; with their wonderful coloration and complete originality.

After a week of being at a coin show, I have some observations about the market:

* There is no question whatsoever that the market is now very much a two-tier affair. There are really good coins and there is everything else. If you had really good coins at the ANA, you could ask nearly any price for them and they would sell. If you had boring coins, you had to price them at a good discount to generate any interest.

* This was the hardest buying show I can ever remember. While I did spend well north of $1 million dollars at the auctions, I was amazed at how bone dry the bourse floor was. When it came to deals, this year’s ANA was dry as well. I was offered two very interesting collections. I passed on both; one because I though the price was too high and on the other because it contained too many coins for me to deal with at one time. For better or worse, nearly all of the interesting fresh coins are going into the auctions.

* The quality of the typical Southern branch mint gold coin I saw was atrocious. There are some nice coins out there (I bought a few of them) but most of the Charlotte and Dahlonega coins I saw were overgraded and unoriginal. If you own crusty original C+D coinage, you have something really rare, regardless of date, denomination or grade.

* The market for Three Dollar gold pieces has softened. There were a number of pieces on the market. However, it should be pointed out that many of these were not nice and the really interesting dates in the series (such as the 1858, 1865, 1877 and the low mintage issues from the 1880’s) remained strong. The biggest correction was for higher grade coins (MS64 and better) in the common and semi-common category. MS66 Three Dollar gold pieces have dropped between 20% and 30% in recent weeks but are still worth considerably more than they were two years ago.

* The generic gold market is very soft right now. I would avoid speculating in this area unless you are able to follow pricing on a near-daily basis but it seems like some market areas are pretty good short-term plays right now.

* After getting a little panicky about the market at the beginning of the show, I am able to look at it with better perspective today, especially now that I’ve finally been able to sleep in my own bed for a night. I think we will see some short-term weakness in the market, especially in areas such as generic gold and “uninteresting” coins. But I think the market for really rare and really expensive coins is better now than it’s ever been. As long as the stock market remains flat (and it’s been as flat as a pancake for the last five years) you’ll see a strong market. The clear indicator of a weak coin market will be when stocks rebound and investors pull their money out of coins and go back to stocks.

2006 Denver Summer ANA Show Preview

If you only attend one coin show per year, the summer ANA is probably the biggest bang for your buck. Every major dealer in the United States attends this show as well as leading dealers from Europe, Japan and Latin America. The fact that this year’s edition is in the great city of Denver (which is generally a nice spot to be in mid-August) makes the 2006 convention a must-attend for the collector. If you have just 48 hours to “do the Denver ANA,” what is the best way to do this? My advice would be to arrive in Denver on the evening of Tuesday, August 15. Get a good night sleep because you are going to be a busy guy if you take the Winter Tour of the ANA bourse on Wednesday.

The show opens to the public on the morning of Wednesday, August 16th at 10 a.m. I’d suggest having a good breakfast and using the early morning to plan a strategy. You might want to go on the ANA’s website (www.money.org) and look at the map of the convention floor and the list of dealer’s tables. You’ll want to highlight your favorite dealer’s location but you should also consider visiting tables that contain coins that you don’t collect but which are of interest. As an example, I always like to visit the British dealers’ tables and look at their stock, even though I don’t collect these coins.

When the doors open, I’d recommend promptly going to your favorite dealer’s tables and asking what coins, if any, are available in your field of collecting. If you see something that is really interesting, I’d recommend making a quick decision. At a major show like ANA, you can’t really expect a dealer to put a coin on hold for you for more than an hour or two; especially not at the beginning of the show. Assuming you have a fixed amount to spend at the show, don’t be nervous if you spend your whole budget at the first table you go to; we can assume you went to the “best dealer” first and he is most likely to have exactly what you want.

I’d suggest you spend another three or four hours scanning tables and meeting dealers before breaking for lunch. Generally speaking, convention center food is awful and leaving the bourse for an hour to eat a good meal will prove to be an excellent strategy.

When you return to the convention (remember to save your badge!) I’d suggest you head over to the auction viewing lot area and spending a few hours looking at coins. Even if you aren’t going to bid in an auction, ANA auctions are a wonderful place to see exceptional coins and to study them. Just remember not to hog the lots as you may be sharing them with fellow viewers who are going to bid on them. One thing I would suggest you do is makes notes about the coins you like and the ones you don’t and then monitor them to see what they sell for later in the week.

I would then suggest finishing the day with another two or three hour promenade around the bourse floor. I’d recommend leaving around 6 p.m. (the show closes at 7 p.m.), heading back to your hotel and capping the night off with a good dinner in downtown Denver.

On Thursday the show opens to the public at 9 a.m. It’s a good idea to get there a bit after this as many dealers aren’t really up and running until 9:30 or even 10. I’d suggest spending the morning hitting the dealers you didn’t see yesterday and returning to the dealers you like. Ask to see any of the new purchases that they have ready for sale or ask them if any interesting coins are back from grading at PCGS and NGC and if these are available.

What if you haven’t purchased anything yet and you are starting to panic? At this point in time, an impulsive or forced purchase is just about the worse decision you can make. While it is likely that you will have already found something to buy, if you don’t spend your money at the ANA, it’s not a crime.

There is likely to be an auction session during the day or in the evening and it is interesting to attend, if only to see how the dynamic of live auctions work. You are not likely to see much in the way of compelling drama unless you have the good fortune to attend the sale of a major collection.

If at all possible, try and attend one of the lectures that the ANA schedules throughout the show. In the past, there have been numerous interesting subjects and many of the speakers are world-class experts.

Another thing I’d suggest you do at the show is look at the competitive exhibits. At last year’s ANA in San Francisco I was amazed at the quality of these exhibits and found myself spending time absorbing them nearly every day.

Assuming that you have a few hours left, I’d complete the day with another go-round the bourse floor and, perhaps, a final purchase or two.

The most important thing to realize about the ANA show is that it’s a remarkable opportunity for the beginning or expert collector to see coins he won’t be able to see anywhere else, make potentially valuable contacts and, most importantly, to come away with knowledge that will increase his ability and comfort level. It really is the Super Bowl of Numismatics and if you have a chance to attend this year, please don’t forget to stop by tables 523/525 and say “hi.”