Baltimore ANA Show Review

Being an eternal realist when it comes to the coin market, I wasn’t expecting this year’s ANA show to be a good one; let alone a great one. With the unrelentingly bad economic news in the United States (let alone the world) it seemed inevitable to me that most collectors would be slowing down. As usual, I was wrong. This year’s ANA was outstanding for me and many of the dealers that I spoke to (and who I trust) told me that it was a great show for them as well. The show began for me with the Stack’s sale of the S.S. New York shipwreck on Sunday. I had a feeling these coins would go strong, given the fact that the quality was far nicer than other shipwreck coins and the quantity was smaller. I expected that the typical “shipwreck premium” would be about 15-25%. In some cases this was true but in most, the premium was substantially higher; especially in the case of lower value coins that were being bought for their “knick-knack” appeal.

There were a few very important coins in the hoard and certainly among the best was the highest graded 1845-D quarter eagle, an NGC MS64. It sold to a very knowledgeable dealer for $63,250 which I thought was quite strong. Other Dahlonega coins in the sale went very strongly as well. Notable prices included $18,400 for an 1839-D half eagle in NGC AU58, $31,050 for an 1840-D half eagle in NGC MS62 and $51,750 for an 1842-D Large Date half eagle in NGC MS61.

Some outstanding New Orleans gold was featured and it brought remarkable prices. An NGC MS64 1844-O half eagle sold for $28,750, an NGC MS63* 1845-O half eagle brought $43,125, an impressive 1844-O eagle in NGC MS63 sold for a record $63,250 and an NGC MS62 1845-O eagle was bid to $54,625.

The show began in earnest on Tuesday with PNG day. I have never been a big fan of PNG day for one simple reason: because of the fact that only a limited number of dealers have tables, the cavernous bourse floor seems like a ghost town. I did some business but mainly concentrated on buying. As I expected, there was a shortage of interesting coins; a theme that you will no doubt read on other show reports from specialist dealers like myself.

The regular show started on Wednesday. With all of the dealers now set up, the huge hall felt more inviting. When the doors opened to the public, a stampede of collectors headed right towards my table. Could this possibly represent a tidal wave of Dahlonega collectors? A Tsunami of Charlotte aficionados? No such luck; all the collectors were headed for the Bust Half Dollar collection being sold by Sheridan Downey right in front of me.

I spent a good part of the show either at the table or out buying coins. My observations about the current rare gold coin market as are follows:

1. It is amazing how little nice material there is available. I would have been happy to have bought, say, ten interesting Dahlonega coins and a bunch of New Orleans eagles. I came home with very few of either.

2. CAC stickers are beginning to have a positive effect on liquidity, particularly in the high end of the market. As an example, I had three expensive pieces of early date gold with stickers on them and I wound up selling them to a collector who I have never done business with before. I fully believe that the stickers helped make the transaction happen.

3. Collector demand for interesting gold coins remains very strong. It seemed like every hour or so, another dealer would come up to my table and tell me that he had someone interested in some sort of gold issue. I sold a number of coins to dealers that I don’t do much—if any—business with at a typical coin show.

4. Without sounding completely self-serving, it continues to amaze me what so-so quality coins bring at auction. I expect great quality, one-of-a-kind coins and major rarities to do well at auction but I wonder why collectors are content to pay 10-20% more for average to above-average coins. Maybe said collectors should give more serious consideration to looking through dealer’s inventories.

One of my favorite things to do at an ANA show is to look at the exhibits. This year the Smithsonian had a small but awesome group of coins from the National Numismatic collection including an 1821 Proof set (the half eagle had to be seen to be believed), an 1843 Proof set (including all three denominations in gold) and an 1860 Paquet Double Eagle pattern in gold that, when viewed from the reverse appeared to grade at least Proof-68. There was also a group of Massachusetts colonial silver belonging to a well-known collector that was stunning.

Where does the market go from here? I think the next month or so will be interesting. There are no coin shows of note until Long Beach in September and my guess is that most dealers left ANA with money to spend. My guess is that there will be strong demand for good coins between now and then. Some of the money that is circling the market will get absorbed by the strong pre-Long Beach and Long Beach auctions that loom on the horizon but there will still be an excellent opportunity for collectors who have had coins for longer than five years to sell into the market.

In closing, I’d like to point out that this generally upbeat show report does not take into account one simple fact: to take advantage of this still-strong market, you have to have the right coins. At this point, you are probably sick of my saying this over and over and are wondering “what exactly ARE the right coins?” Check back later this week and I will be writing a blog that discusses what I think the right coins are. (A cliffhanger...I love it!!)

S.S. New York Coin Sale

S.S. New York Coin Auction - I recently learned that the coins from the shipwreck S.S. New York will be sold by Stack’s in July at this firm’s pre-ANA auction. Unlike some of the other shipwrecks that have been uncovered in recent years, the coins found on the S.S. New York will have an impact on the branch mint gold market. According to information gleaned from the NGC website, the S.S. New York was a light cargo and passenger ship vessel that operated between New Orleans and Galveston. It was destroyed during a hurricane on September 7, 1846. Seventeen crew members were killed and “thirty to forty thousand dollars in gold, silver and bank notes” were lost according to contemporary reports.

What is especially interesting about these coins is that they represent one of the most eclectic, diverse cross-sections of coins in circulation during the first part of the 19th century that has ever been found. Unlike the S.S. Republic and S.S. Central America, the coins in this group tend to be smaller denomination and much of the gold was produced in Dahlonega and the local New Orleans mint.(Even more interesting is the fact that only two Charlotte issues were included. This should tell us something about the geographic distribution of Charlotte coins).

The coins have been curated by NCS and, according to the reports that I’ve read, numismatists such as John Albanese, David Bowers and Mark Salzburg have commented on how exceptional they are from the standpoint of quality. In fact, Albanese was quoted as saying “...many of them look like they were just minted yesterday.”

NGC just published the first census of these S.S. New York coins and, from the look of it, there are some extremely interesting pieces that will be available. In my opinion, some of the gold coin highlights are as follows:

1845-D Quarter Eagle, NGC MS64

1840-D Half Eagle, NGC MS62

1842-D Large Date Half Eagle, NGC MS61

Two 1843-O Small Letters Half Eagles in NGC MS62

1844-D Half Eagle, NGC MS63*PL

Seventeen Uncirculated 1844-O Half Eagles including two in MS64

Six Uncirculated 1845-O Half Eagles including an MS63

Six Uncirculated 1844-O Eagles including two in MS63

Four Uncirculated 1845-O Eagles

How will the presence of these coins affect the market for branch mint gold? I believe that this group will be a real shot in the arm. First and foremost, it will focus positive attention on branch mint gold. Secondly, it is likely to attract new buyers who will be interested in the coins because of the shipwreck provenance. These buyers probably have never bought a branch mint gold coin (other than a San Francisco double eagle) before and their new purchase could possibly spur them on to collect other branch mint gold coins. Thirdly, it will add some much needed new product into the market. If you collect branch mint gold, you know how few really nice coins have been available in recent years and coins of this quality are sure to be readily appreciated by collectors, dealers and investors alike.

The two things that interest me most about these coins is how nice are they and whether the NCS curation make them look more like modern mint products than 150+ year old southern gold coins. One of my major past complaints about shipwreck gold coins is that I just haven’t liked the unoriginal look they possess. For every lovely 1856-S or 1857-S S.S. Central America double eagle I’ve seen in MS64 or MS65, I’ve seen high grade double eagles (and eagles) from other shipwrecks that have been enthusiastically graded and just not appealing to my eyes. If the coins are as nice as John Albanese and other experts say they are, then the bidding for the coins will be an interesting head-to-head competition between purists like myself and shipwreck coin specialists.

A few collectors have asked me if the quantity of coins from this shipwreck worries me. The answer to this is most definitely “no.” If you look at a full census of the coins that NGC has graded (it can be read at www.ngccoin.com) you will note that very few coins have quantities of more than ten pieces. The most plentiful issues from the shipwreck tend to be those that are already common (like the 1843-O Small Date quarter eagle, the 1843 half eagle and the 1844-O half eagle) so another dozen or so coins will hardly affect the rarity of these issues.

I am curious to see what the impact of six Uncirculated 1845-O half eagles and six 1844-O eagles will have on the market. Given the fact that I think I could sell all twelve of these coins by myself, I’m willing to bet that they will be easily absorbed into the market and will actually serve to raise prices for these two issues rather than lower them.

I’ve mostly sat out the Shipwreck Coin Stampede that has had a major impact on the gold coin market in the last decade. I am excited to finally have a wreck o’ my own and I am really looking forward to viewing the coins in Baltimore next month.