A Dozen Undervalued United States Gold Coins Priced Below $7,500: The 2015 Edition

A Dozen Undervalued United States Gold Coins Priced Below $7,500: The 2015 Edition

It’s been quite a while since I wrote an article about the topic of affordable, undervalued 19th century U.S. gold coins, and I think it’s time to do a more current version of this article. I’m going to change things up ever so slightly this time and include some market overviews on each denomination, and make some suggestions which include multiple coins as opposed to “singles.”

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What Does a Virtually "Perfect" 19th Century Gold Coin Look Like?

The majority of the coins I deal with are imperfect. They were struck by crude machinery, in often difficult circumstances, by often-times inexperienced mint personnel. If I had to guess, I’d say the average grade of the coins I sell is in the Extremely Fine-45 to About Uncirculated-55 range. I sell coins which are “gently used.”

But every now and then, I handle a coin that is not only “unused,” but it is superb quality. I recently handled a PCGS MS68+ 1884 gold dollar approved by CAC, which was as close to perfect as any 19th century American gold coin I’ve handled in some time. I’d like to share some thoughts about the appearance of this specific coin, discuss it within the context of the Type Three gold dollar series, and share some random thoughts on originality and eye appeal.

1884 $1.00 PCGS MS68+ CAC

The late-date Type Three dollars—those issues struck from 1880 through the end of this series in 1889—share a number of characteristics. They all have fairly low mintages but fairly high survival rates. These issues were not well-circulated and for many of these dates, examples below AU55 to AU58 are all but unheard of.

Of the ten late-date Type Three gold dollars, the rarest in terms of overall rarity is the 1884. It sells for just a small premium over a really common date like an 1888 or 1889 but it is actually much scarcer. Of the 5,230 struck, there are around 500 known with nearly all in the MS62 to MS64 range. In MS65 and even MS66, this date is not a big deal and PCGS has graded enough in MS67 (20 coins as of September 2014) that most any collector who wants one can find one. MS68’s are another story, and PCGS has graded only seven in this grade plus this one example in MS68+. NGC has graded an 1884 dollar in MS69, and I’m sure that coin is amazing, but I’m feeling pretty confident in saying right now that this PCGS MS68+ is the single finest known 1884 gold dollar.

What makes this coin an MS68+? Is it really better than an MS67; enough to justify it being worth close to four times what a nice PCGS/CAC MS67? If so, how, what and why?

I generally avoid buying common coins in uncommon grades, and if I were offered an 1888 or 1889 gold dollar in MS68+ I would likely pass. But I quickly pulled the trigger on this 1884. My decision was made easy by the coin’s appearance. It has eye appeal to spare; a result of its great surfaces, lovely color and the “look” which is hard to put into words but which speaks volumes to me. This coin didn’t have the appearance of a “typical” dipped high grade dollar of this era. It was dark and filmy and I mean “filmy” in a good way; more on this below.

Let’s look at the components of grading which combine to give this coin its Mint State rating and its eye appeal factor. First is strike. Strike shouldn’t be much of a factor on late date Type Three gold dollars as these tend to be extremely well-struck. This coin is no exception, and it is fully detailed at the centers and borders. The second factor is surface preservation. A close examination of the surfaces reveals a single light scrape on the upper obverse below ES in STATES. Other than this, the coin is perfect. The next factor is luster. This coin has amazing rich, thick frosty luster which is unbroken and which clearly has never been tampered with. This issue tends to have very good luster, but even by the standards of 1884 gold dollars, this piece has better than average luster. The fourth factor is coloration. You can see from the attached photo that this coin has very pronounced coppery-russet color, which is deeper at the borders than the centers. The color is “right” for the issue and it has a pattern and hues that is clearly natural.

One thing about this coin which is interesting is its “filmy” appearance. Generally, a coin which is filmy has negative connotations, and this film might be putty or some unnatural, applied chemical. But a number of Type Three gold dollars have what is known as “cellophane” toning from storage in old cellophane holders. These coins were often given as Christmas presents and stored for many years in these clear holders which impart a very recognizable “film” over the surfaces. If I saw this same sort of film on, say, an 1854-D gold dollar, I’d be suspicious. But knowing that this look is not uncommon on high-grade business strike gold dollars from the 1880’s, I regard it as another “plus” factor in this coin’s overall appearance.

As a collector, one of the things you should do is educate yourself as much as possible about the series you collect. Focus less on trying to learn what is the difference between an MS67, an MS68, and an MS69, and more on the characteristics which make a coin special for its respective issue. Learn about things like cellophane-style toning on the surfaces of Type Three gold dollars, and why this is a good thing. Most of all, find a visual “look” which appeals to you and try to stick to this as much as possible when you search for coins.

And whatever became of this 1884 gold dollar? I sold it to a prominent collector who is currently working on the finest-known set of gold dollars, and he is thrilled with his new acquisition.

Do you have questions or comments about this PCGS MS68+ gold dollar? If so, please free to comment below or ask me directly via email at dwn@ont.com.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Compromising When Coin Buying: When You Should and When You Shouldn't

Collectors often ask me about my thought process(es) when I make coin purchases. Why do I buy certain coins and pass on others? Why do I stretch for some coins, and make others based solely on a favorable price? These are great questions and I think they are worthy of a blog.

Most coin purchases involve some sort of compromise. Very few coins are “perfect” from an appearance standpoint. A coin may have been cleaned at one time or it may have some weakness of strike or more marks in prominent locations than you would hope for. When should you compromise your standards, and when should you hold fast and true?

A lot of the answers that I would give to these questions depend on what sort of coins you are buying and whether you collect by type or by date. If you are a type collector, it is much easier to, as an example, wait for the perfect AU55 Capped Bust Right Heraldic Eagle ten dollar gold piece than it is to wait for an 1804 eagle in AU55 which is well struck and which has natural color.

Let’s look at some specifics for compromise vs. non-compromise, and use some real world examples.

1. Very Rare Coins Should Be Held to Lower Standards than Common Coins

Intuitively, you would think that the exact opposite should be true in numismatics, but it’s not.

The rarest Dahlonega half eagle is the 1842-D Large Date. It’s the only issue in the series which is genuinely hard to find in EF and higher grades with really good eye appeal. I haven’t handled a truly nice one in years, and I have numerous want lists for this date in nearly any grade. If someone offered me a marginal quality in a 45 holder tomorrow, I would invariably buy it unless it was grossly overpriced or it had some flaw that I just couldn’t get past.

1842-D Large Date $5.00 NGC AU55

The most common Dahlonega half eagle is the 1854-D. It’s kind of a blah issue, but I seldom buy this date unless it is outstanding for the date for one of the following reasons: it's 100% original, it has great color, or it is exceptional eye appeal. In other words, I’m not going to buy an 1854-D (or any other very common Dahlonega half eagle) unless there is something really exceptional about it.

If I hold the 1842-D Large Date to the same standards that I hold the 1854-D to, I’m never going to buy an example. And this is a trap that many collectors fall into.

There are a number of very rare coins that just don’t come nice. A classic example is the 1870-CC double eagle. I’ve seen or owned probably half of the surviving examples and I can’t recall more than two or three that I would regard as “choice.”  The typical example is not only well-worn but it lacks original color and has numerous abrasions. As a buyer who loves original color and tends not to like abrasions, the 1870-CC is problematical for me. Which is why I hold it to an entirely different set of standards than, say, an issue like the 1890-CC double eagle, which I can easily locate with good eye appeal.

2. If You Don't Lower Your Standards on Certain Coins, You'll Never Buy Any

Around a year ago, I began selling coins to a new collector who decided that he wanted to specialize in rare to very rare Liberty Head eagles. His collecting background was with more modern issues such as Walking Liberty half dollars and he was used to big, bright, shiny coins which were just about perfect. I warned him that he would have to use an entirely different set of standards with a coin like an 1860-S eagle; an issue which is not only extremely rare but is one with which rigorous buying standards have to be thrown out the window.

The first two transactions I had with this gentleman were disasters. He returned one very scarce coin (in a PCGS holder and with CAC approval) for having a tiny “scratch” hidden on the reverse, and another rarer one for not being as “dark and dirty” as he thought the photo and description on my website indicated. I don’t have many coins returned due to quality issues, and two have two returned by the same individual in the space of a few weeks…well, let’s just say this doesn’t happen much at DWN.

We spoke on the phone and this is what I learned: since these coins were expensive (high four figures in one case and low five figures in another) he expected them to be superb. I tried to explain to him that what constitutes “superb” in the realm of rare date eagles is entirely different than what constitutes “superb” when looking at MS66 and MS67 late date Walkers. He was using a set of standards that were totally inapplicable to rare date 19th century gold coins that were both conditionally rare and which had very low survival rates. I think we parted friends, but to this day I have never sold him another coin and don’t think he is likely to buy anything from me.

This blog is not meant to be an apology for compromising your standards. In the field of rare date gold collecting there are many coins that you can take a firm stand and not waver from it.

3. When You Want One of Something, You Can Be Fussy

More dated gold collectors are collecting by a type or by “best available neat coin” strategy and wandering from the previous standards of collecting series by date.

Let’s say you’ve decided that you like Charlotte quarter eagles but you want just two examples: a Classic Head and a Liberty Head. You are more limited with the former as there are just two Classic Head issues; the Liberty Head series offers much more flexibility with 18 different issues to choose from.

You’ve saved up and have $3,500 to spend on a really nice quarter eagle. You are someone who really values good strikes and you hate coins which are made on inferior planchets. This automatically eliminates around half to two-thirds of the possible Liberty Head issues from this mint (due to budget constraints, strike problems, or poor method of manufacture) and you can focus on the issues which make sense. The chances are good that the “right” $3,500 coin will show up in a few months; a coin with excellent striking detail, nice surfaces and the original color and surfaces that collectors now crave. It might be a “common” issue such as an 1847-Cl or it might be a scarcer issue such as an 1840-C.

Or you can just buy assorted neat coins in your price range. Let’s say you love dirty, original coins and your price point is $2,500-5,000. It doesn’t theoretically matter if you buy a PCGS AU58 1857-S gold dollar or an NGC AU50 1846-D/D half eaglel as long as the coin has character and its eye appeal “speaks” to you.

4. Be Picky on the Keys (if you collect by date)

I’ve discussed this more than once but most collectors overbuy the common dates in their chosen set(s) and underbuy the keys.

Let me give you an example of the right way to form a set. A very good client of mine has been working on a Dahlonega quarter eagle set for five or six years now. His motivation to begin this set was when I had just bought a great collection of D mint quarter eagles and was breaking them up. It just so happened that the key 1855-D and 1856-D in this collection were wonderful quality for the date: comparatively high grade, nice and original, and well-pedigreed. He realized that by purchasing both coins, he would be off to a great start and that he might not have a chance to purchase such nice examples again.

1854-D $2.50 PCGS AU58 CAC

After buying these two key issues, this collector decided that the other rarities in the set (1840-D, 1841-D, 1842-D, and 1854-D) had to be special coins. And over the course of the next five years, I was able to purchase beautiful AU55 to AU58 examples of each.

As picky as he was on the keys, he was discriminating on the common dates in the set. He bought nice AU examples but resisted the temptation to spend $15,000 on a common 1843-D when he could own a perfectly presentable example for $4,000 and funnel the savings towards another key date, or two to three more nice commons.

5. Be Picky When You Have Options

Let’s say you are a collector for whom strike is a key factor in determining whether or not you buy a coin. On some issues, you are out of luck as all known examples are found with weakness of strike (an example of this would be the 1859-C and 1860-C half eagles). Other issues are found with varieties which are well struck or poorly struck, depending on the die state (examples of this include the 1844-D and 1848-C quarter eagles).

To be a good collector in the area of rare date gold, you have to learn about each issue’s appearance. This is why the books I have written explain factors such as typical strike in great detail.

You are surfing the web and you happen on a nice, crusty 1844-D quarter eagle in a PCGS AU55 holder. It has your “look” and is priced in your wheelhouse, but the strike is very poor. If you know the intricacies of this issue, you know that around 50% of all 1844-D quarter eagles show central weakness. This means that you still have a good chance to find a well-struck example and that you should probably pass on the coin, even if you need it for your date set.

Knowing when to be picky and when to compromise is an important part of the strategies used by sophisticated collectors of all coins; not just dated gold. Do you have any stories to share about being picky or not being picky when you bought a coin? Please share them in the comments section below.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Douglas Winter Numismatics Sets World Record with $1.645 Million Dollar Purchase

Douglas Winter Numismatics Sets World Record with $1.645 Million Dollar Purchase

There are just two 1861 Paquet Reverse double eagles known and this issue is ranked as the fourth rarest regular issue United States coin, after the unique 1870-S half dime and three dollar gold pieces and the 1873-CC No Arrows dime.

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Trophy Coins for the Rest of Us

The last article I wrote was about Trophy Coins. It generated a lot of buzz among my readers, not all of it positive. The negative comments I heard, not all underserved, typically went something like this: “You are an elitist, writing about coins which are $50,000, $100,000 and more.” I can understand these comments, although I would counter with the argument that a true Trophy Coin is by its very nature meant to be exclusive.

Is it possible to own a true Trophy Coin at a more realistic price point? I would resoundingly say that yes it is, although I would still place the minimum amount required to attain Trophyness, at least in the arena of United States gold coinage, to be in the $5,000-10,000+ range.

Here is a list of ten Trophy Coins for the 99%, plus “pitches” which quickly explain what makes each coin so clearly identifiable as being “special.”  I’ve also listed some “runners-up” which can be considered Trophy Coins in their own right.

1875  $1.00 PCGS MS65 CAC

1. 1875 Gold Dollar

The Pitch: Only 400 business strikes were made, giving this the lowest reported mintage of any gold dollar.

The 1875 gold dollar is a coin which was famous soon after it was made but whose popularity has diminished over the years. Most non-specialists are aware that it has an absurdly low original mintage, but they have little knowledge of this coin’s special attributes above and beyond its mintage. Interestingly, for some collectors the 1863 has replaced the 1875 as the “go to” Philadelphia issue of this denomination as a result of its status as “rarest Civil War gold dollar.”

The appearance of this issue is unusual for a gold dollar of this era. Many of the 100-150 which exist show fully reflective mirror surfaces which carefully resemble those seen on Proofs of this year. The typical example grades AU50 to low end Uncirculated and a very presentable 1875 gold dollar can be obtained, with patience, for around $7,500. In the higher grade range, there are at least five or six gems known including a PCGS MS66+ owned by collector Bob Simpson and Steve Duckor’s PCGS MS66; these are the two finest I have seen and am aware of.

While not as rare as its low mintage would suggest (clearly, examples were saved at the time of issue by dealers and collectors), the 1875 gold dollar is a significant scarcity whose value would quickly increase were it better known.

Runners Up: 1855-D gold dollar (rarest collectible branch mint issue), 1863 (rarest Civil War issue).

1864 $2.50 PCGS EF45 CAC

2. 1864 Quarter Eagle

Pitch: The rarest collectible business strike Liberty Head quarter eagle and a key Civil War issue.

For many years, the 1864 quarter eagle was a “sleeper” within a series (Liberty Head quarter eagles) replete with undervalued issues. But with the increased interest in Civil War issues, the true rarity of the 1864 quarter eagle became better known and, quickly, values escalated.

It is likely that no more than two dozen examples exist from an original mintage of 2,824 with most in the EF45 to AU55 range. The finest known is a superb Gem, graded MS67 by NGC and ex Byron Reed. The last few examples which have appeared at auction have brought in the $40,000-60,000 range; a level which is out of keeping with the spirit of these Trophy Coins but which, in my opinion, still represents fair value for an elite rarity.

With the exception of the extremely rare 1854-S, this is the rarest Liberty Head quarter eagle produced in an unquestioned business strike format, and it is clearly the rarest of the ten Trophy Coins on this list.

Runners Up: 1838-C and 1839-D (popular first year of issues), 1856-D (rarest Dahlonega quarter eagle), 1875 (lowest business strike mintage of the series except for the 1854-S).

1854-O $3.00 NGC AU58+ CAC

3. 1854-O Three Dollar Gold

The Pitch: Popular first year of issue and one year type.

My natural inclination was to include the 1854-D as an obvious Trophy Coin, but at $50,000 this didn’t fit in with the spirit of this list; especially after I just listed a $50,000 item as coin #2. So, I chose the “poor man’s 1854-D,” namely the 1854-O.

As with its expensive cousin, the 1854-O is a one-year type and a first-year-of-issue. It is a surprisingly plentiful issue given its relatively low mintage of 24,000; over 1,000 exist, mostly in the EF40 to AU50 range. Accurately graded AU53 to AU55 examples with natural color and choice surfaces are still affordable and, in my opinion, they are very scarce due to the fact that 90+% of the surviving 1854-O threes have been cleaned and/or processed.

I handle dozens of 1854-O Three Dollar gold pieces every year, in grades ranging from EF40 to MS61, and this issue continues to fascinate me.

Runners Up: 1855-S (first SF issue), 1865 (rarest Civil War date).

1800 $5.00 NGC AU55+ CAC

4. Draped Bust Half Eagle

The Pitch: Old gold.

I’ve specialized in rare United States gold for close to three decades and I don’t think I’ve ever met a collector who didn’t like early gold. What’s not to like? These coins are historic, hefty, attractive and rare. Of the three denominations struck from 1795 to 1834, the half eagle is the most affordable and the most obtainable.

Narrowing down our choices for a Trophy Coin, I would select a Draped Bust half eagle, struck from 1798 through 1807. Nearly all collectors confronted with a choice of dates for this denomination would select an 18th century issue, but the 1798 and 1799 are not cheap; thus, I suggest focusing on an 1800-1807. Nice AU coins are available, with some patience, in the $10,000-12,000 range. These coins have been excellent performers over the years (they have essentially doubled in price over the last decade) and they remain at the top of the list for many collectors’ dream coin.

Runners Up: Capped Bust type (1807-1812; cool but not as cool as the earlier Draped Bust type), 1813 (the most affordable Fat Head half eagle).

1838-C $5.00 PCGS AU50

5. 1838-C or 1838-D Half Eagle

The Pitch: Very popular first year of issues and one year types. Mintmark on the obverse. Popular!

It was too hard for me to choose one or the other so I picked both…and for good reason. Both the 1838-C and 1838-D half eagles have become extremely popular in recent years and together they form a wonderful two coin collection.

The 1838-C is the more common of the two but it is much rarer in high grades than its counterpart. I have only seen one truly Uncirculated 1838-C half eagle (the Elrod/Bass coin graded MS63 by PCGS) and no more than five or six really nice high end AU examples.

The 1838-D is scarcer but it seems to have been saved in higher grades and as many as 10 are known in Uncirculated.

More than nearly any other southern gold coins (except for the 1861-D dollar and half eagle) these two issues have near-universal collector appeal.

Runners Up: 1840-O (first year of issue), 1842-D Large Date (rarest half eagle from Dahlonega), 1863-1865 (rare Civil War issues).

1909-O $5.00 PCGS MS61 CAC

6. 1909-O Half Eagle

The Pitch: Popular one-year type coin and the last gold piece ever struck at this mint.

After discontinuing the manufacture of half eagles in 1894, the New Orleans mint struck 34,000 half eagles—seemingly out of the blue—in 1909-O. This has been a popular issue for many years and it has a grade distribution not unlike the 1854-O Three Dollar. The 1909-O is common in EF and lower AU grades, scarce in properly graded AU55 to AU58 and rare in Uncirculated.

I have handled dozens of 1909-O half eagles in the last few years ranging from affordable EF45 examples to the finest known, the incomparable Eliasberg MS66 which I purchased for a client in the January 2014 FUN auction. This issue appeals to a wide range of collectors and for good reasons: it is a unique issue with a great back story.

For most collectors a nice AU50 to AU53 example will fit well in their collection. A Trophy Coin aficionado could easily spend $50,000 or far more for a nice Uncirculated 1909-O.

Runners Up: CAC approved common date Indian Head half eagle in MS64 or MS65.

1838 $10.00 PCGS EF40

7. 1838 Eagle

The Pitch: First year of issue with a neat short-lived design.

The eagle denomination was discontinued after 1804 and upon its resurrection in 1838 it became, again, the largest denomination of American coinage. Only 7,200 eagles were made in 1838 but this date is a little more available than one might think. But most 1838 eagles show considerable circulation, and properly graded AU50 and higher examples are quite scarce.

I have been a big fan of this date for many years and I don’t think I’ve ever had a nice quality 1838 eagle that hasn’t a) sold quickly and b) received multiple orders off my website when available. The 1838 is a coin with strong demand from non-specialists, and while prices have risen accordingly over the years, $7,500-10,000 will still buy you a decent example. If you are willing to spend $15,000-20,000+ you can buy a smoking 1838 eagle, although many of the coins offered in recent years (in both NGC and PCGS holders) have had originality “issues.”

RUNNERS UP: 1841-O (first New Orleans eagle), 1865-S Inverted Date (very cool blundered date), 1873/1876/1877 (very low mintage issues).

1854-S $10.00 NGC AU58 CAC

8. 1854-S Eagle

The Pitch: Affordable first-year-of-issue San Francisco gold coin and a great Gold Rush memento

There were many other Liberty Head eagles I thought about, including the first-year 1870-CC, the low mintage 1879-O, and 1883-O, not to mention some of the rare, interesting Indian Head eagles. But I chose the 1854-S for a variety of reasons.

1854 is a magical year for San Francisco gold coinage. The mint opened its doors this year and produced five denominations. Two, the quarter eagle and half eagle, are formidable rarities. The eagle is actually the most common denomination from this year with hundreds known in EF40 to AU55 grades.

I wouldn’t call a marginally decent AU55 example of the 1854-S eagle a Trophy Coin. But a properly graded AU58, especially with a CAC sticker, is a great value at current levels ($5,000-7,000) and it is the best available quality for this date as the 1854-S is exceedingly rare in full Mint State.

Runners Up: See above.

1857-S $20.00 PCGS MS64, SSCA

9. 1857-S SS Central America $20.00 in MS64

The Pitch: A borderline Gem 150+ year old big gold coin for around 10 grand.

Before the discovery of the SS Central America, I could have counted the number of Gem Type One double eagles that I had seen on one hand. This discovery brought thousands of superb pieces into the market. It not only made owning a superb quality Type One double eagle a reality for most collectors; it also jump-started the still-hot Liberty Head double eagle market.

Some readers of this article will bristle at my inclusion of this as a Trophy Coin. But consider this: there are hundreds of new collectors who began buying rare gold coins as a result of dipping their toes in the water with an SSCA. And an MS64 still seems like the sweet spot of this issue: the coins tend to be lovely and the price is reasonable when compared to an MS65 or an MS66.

My ideal SSCA coin has been carefully selected by a knowledgeable dealer to not have discoloration or signs of chemical reaction to the conservation performed after the coins were salvaged. I like the coins with all the “bells and whistles” you can add on: they should be approved by CAC, in the original packaging and accompanied by the presentation box and COA as issued.

Runners Up: 1850 (first year of issue), 1862 and 1863 (rare Civil War issues), 1865-S Bro Jo.

1914 $20.00 PCGS MS66

10. Common Date Saint in MS66 with CAC Approval

The Pitch:  A beautiful coin in a beautiful grade at a beautiful price point.

Remember: this is a group of Trophy Coins for collectors who can’t afford, say a High Relief in Gem Uncirculated. Everyone loves Saints and the Next Best Thing for the more casual gold collector is a Gem MS66 common date.

But we are talking Trophy Coins here so this common date Saint must somehow be uncommon. And for this I suggest buying a pretty, CAC approved MS66. To buy one you have to pay a strong premium over an average quality coin. You can find quantities of MS66 saints without CAC stickers for less than $3,000. CAC approved coins bring a 50+% premium but they are worth it. The quality of many of the MS66/CAC Saints I have seen has been superb with great color and luster and just a few small marks in the fields.

If you could add or delete coins from this list, what would they be? Feel free to leave comments or contact me directly at dwn@ont.com.

 

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard: Some Thoughts

Unless you spent the last two weeks in deep space you have no doubt read about/discussed/dreamt about the fabulous Saddle Ridge hoard. Enough has already been written about the background of this hoard that I won’t repeat it here. (NBC News, BBC, CNN, Yahoo, etc.) The scope of this find has truly captured the fancy of the collecting and non-collecting public alike, and I have been asked about the coins dozens of times; from people ranging from good clients to my doctor to my barista who chatted  me up about the “stolen coins” while making me a pour over macchiato today at my local coffee joint. This is a story with legs.

What I find fascinating about this story is that it is the first great “treasure “ to be found in the day of Web 2.0. When the lost 1913 Nickel was rediscovered a few years ago, it certainly made the rounds on the web, but stayed mainly in numismatic circles. And when the greatest find of them all, the S.S. Central America, was discovered oh so many years ago, there wasn’t even an internet around for the story to go viral; it had to build its momentum over the course of months; not moments.

As I mentioned above, I have been asked a lot of questions about these coins; enough so that I thought it made sense to blog about them so I could just say “read my blog” the next time someone asks me the following.

Here are some thoughts about the Saddle Ridge hoard that I’d like to share.

1. As I mentioned above this is the first truly viral story involving numismatics and the all new (and not necessarily improved) interwebs.

Much of the information I read online about the source and origin of the coins was seemingly invented by reporters who never bothered to check their source(s), and some blatantly wrong numismatic information was written by “news” sources who should have known better. Stolen coins…uh, I don’t think so. Special presentation piece made to commemorate the death of President Lincoln…? Nope.

Wrong information aside, the coins provided the gold coin market was the type of exposure you’d have to spend millions of dollars to generate. It was a true viral buzz and any coin story that doesn’t involve a Long Island telemarketer swindling a little old lady for her life savings is a good story in my book.

2. I’ve known Don Kagin for a long time (he tried to hire me a billion years ago when I was a high school student) and I was glad to see this deal being handled by a firm that is both reputable and knowledgeable.

Often times, deals like this wind up with the wrong people. This time it didn’t.

David McCarthy, the senior numismatist at Kagin’s, is a close friend of mine and he deserves kudos for a host of reasons: treating the owners fairly, properly conserving the coins, making savvy marketing decisions, and just generally doing the right thing. David is one of the good guys in the business and I am really happy for him and his 15+++ minutes of fame. And damn if he didn’t clean up nicely for TV. (Sadly the Good Morning America clip is not currently available online, but CoinWeek has a nice short piece on YouTube.)

3. When I first read that much of the deal was going to be sold online at Amazon.com my first reaction was “wow, that’s ballsy.” My next reaction was “wow, that’s incredibly smart.”

Amazon.com has flirted with entering the coin market before, but for a number of reasons they couldn’t find the best way to enter the market. So why not enter the market with a deal worth millions of dollars and with scads of good publicity?

But this deal could really be win-win for the owners and for Amazon. With all the publicity these coins have garnered, they are clearly worth a premium. Who better to possibly reach the ultimate audience of non-collectors who might be willing to pay the sort of premium which might (or might not) seem too high to dyed-in-the-wool collectors than a company who gets more traffic every minute than I probably do in a month? Well, you might say, the traffic you get is more established and (most) everyone on the raregoldcoins.com site is a likely buyer. But as the owners of the coins - wouldn't you rather have them exposed to millions and millions of people worldwide than an audience of a few thousand established collectors? And if doesn’t work on Amazon? The coins are still great and still can be sold through more established numismatic channels. If Amazon does well and becomes a player in the coin market, it’s great for everyone. If it doesn’t work? No harm, no foul…

4. As the World’s Most Jaded Coin Dealer (OK, maybe not the most jaded but certainly in medal contention) it takes a lot to get me excited.

When I heard that the coins were going to be on display at the Atlanta show I was skeptical. Would they be bright, shiny, and obviously conserved? Would PCGS get carried away with the grading ? Would the coins themselves mostly be common date double eagles in slightly uncommon grades?

The 50 or so coins that were on display at the show were impressive to say the least. Many were the best examples of their specific issue that I have ever seen, and they look fresh and original; not overly conserved. I think PCGS did a nice job grading them and I really liked the special gold labels which PCGS prepared for the coins. I arrived expecting to be unimpressed and left impressed. And my guess is that most collectors are going to feel the same; at least with the top 10-20% of the coins in the hoard; I can’t speak for the remaining examples.

5. How will the Saddle Ridge coins affect the market?

Ah…the $10 million dollar question. Since the majority of the coins were Type Two and Type Three double eagles from San Francisco, the scope of the hoard is narrow and series specific.  I haven’t seen a list of all the coins, but I assume that the majority of them are dated in the mid to late 1870’s and the 1880’s. One area that will be greatly impacted are slightly better date SF Type Threes, like an 1887-S or an 1888-S. If there are 100 MS63 1887-S double eagles, this date could drop in value by 20-50% . And the biggest loser is likely to be the guy who owns the current finest known 1877-S or 1879-S (to pick two random dates) who might see his $50,000+ population one/none better coin become a population two/one better coin.

The Condition Census and Finest Known coins could easily be absorbed by the market as long as they are fairly priced. From some of the preliminary numbers I’ve seen thrown around (such as “a million dollars” for the new finest known 1866-S No Motto) it feels that the asking prices might be extremely aggressive. If the coins are priced “right,” they will sell easily. My guess is that these are not the coins that will be sold on Amazon and will, instead, be offered via private treaty by Kagin’s and/or other specialist dealers or via auction.

The market for San Francisco gold coins has heated up in recent years after near-permanent dormancy. The Saddle Ridge hoard can only do good things to this area of the market. Will it make an 1859-S half eagle in AU50 more valuable? Not directly, but it will focus more attention on SF gold and it is likely that a few deep-pocketed new collectors who buy a Saddle Ridge knick-knack will be compelled to focus on other gold coins from this mint. The Type One double eagle market back in the 1990’s was jumpstarted by the availability of the SS Central America 1857-S double eagles and this market has been in hyper-demand ever since.

6. What sort of premium are these coins worth?

My gut feeling is that a less expensive (sub-$5,000) SF Type Three double eagle in average Uncirculated grades is going to have an ultimate premium of 10-30% for its saddle Ridge provenance. I would assume the original premium will be much higher and, as with the SSCA double eagles, it will evaporate over the first few years only to come back as the coins are absorbed. The numismatically significant five figure coins probably won’t be accorded a big premium.  The finest known 1877-S double eagle is a valuable, desirable coin but it won’t be worth an extra $5,000 or $10,000 because it is from this hoard.

One thing that will be interesting to see is how the collectors who focus on shipwreck coins view this hoard. As an example, “unique” coins from the S.S. Central America (i.e., coins which were one of a kind from the shipwreck) now bring a huge premium due to their collectability; something which was not the case even six or eight years ago. What sort of premium will the only Dahlonega half eagle from this hoard be accorded?  My guess is that the premium will be quite significant, and that these coins will be collected alongside the S.S.Central America, Brother Jonathan and S.S. Republic shipwreck coins.

The Saddle Ridge Hoard is certainly a topic which could be discussed endlessly, and I have the feeling that this is not the last time you will read a DWN Blog on the subject. I look forward to your comments and, hopefully, to selling a few of the neater coins from this group later in the year.

 

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

The Ten Most Marketable New Orleans Gold Coins

I’m basically an old school coin dealer. I market coins all the time but am not really a “marketer” in the numismatic sense of the word—although I deal with firms which are marketers. These companies are always looking for angles and if there is one thing I am pretty cognizant of its coin angles.

So as a coin dealer who handles a lot of New Orleans gold coins, I thought it would be fun to put together a list of the ten most marketable gold issues from this mint.

Notice, I didn’t say the ten rarest New Orleans gold coins. Nor did I say the ten most expensive. This list is about coins which are easy to sell and fun to collect. These are coins with multiple levels of demand, and the sort of coins which are easily understood by beginning and advanced collectors alike. These are coins which the purist might call “overvalued” but the marketing-savvy dealer knows are great sellers in nearly any grade.

Without further ado, the list.

1849-O $1.00 PCGS MS63

1. 1849-O Gold Dollar

This is a first-year of issue and it is interesting for a variety of reasons. The Type One gold dollars from New Orleans were made for just five years, and only one date (the 1850-O) is remotely scarce. It is a great set to collect and it is one which the collector of average means can complete in comparatively high grades (MS62 and above).

The 1849-O dollar is very easy to locate in circulated grades, and a presentable AU example can be had for less than $1,000. In the lower MS grades, the 1849-O can be found with some degree of frequency, and even MS63 examples are not terribly rare or expensive with average quality specimens currently selling in the $3,250-4,250 range. In MS64, this date becomes scarce and the collector can expect to pay at least $5,000 for a decent example. In MS65, this is a very rare coin with just three or four known. The last to appear at auction was a PCGS example that brought a very strong $29,900 in Heritage’s 10/11 sale.

It would be hard to accumulate a substantial number of 1849-O dollars in grades above MS62 but it is likely that a decent position of AU58 to MS62 coins could be assembled.

1855-O $1.00 PCGS MS61 CAC

2. 1855-O Gold Dollar

The 1855-O gold dollar has been a favorite of mine for many years. It has two great things going for it: it is a distinct one-year type, and it is the only New Orleans gold dollar struck which uses the short-lived, popular Type Two design (made only from 1854 to 1856). A total of 55,000 were made, and it is not really a rare coin but it is extremely popular and become g harder to find every year.

The 1855-O dollar is most readily available in EF and AU grades. It becomes scarce in the AU55 to AU58 range, although it is available at most major shows or auctions. In Uncirculated, it has become a very hard coin to find with most in the MS60 to MS62 range. It is very rare in properly graded MS63, and it is essentially unknown above this. The popularity of this issue is apparent in its surge in price over the five+ years. In 2008, I can remember selling average quality AU58’s for around $3,000 and choice examples for closer to $4,000. Today, an average quality AU58 will cost more like $4,250-4,500 and a choice coin with CAC approval might bring as much as $5,500-6,000.

It would be challenging to accumulate a quantity of 1855-O gold dollars although a group ranging in grade from EF45 to AU55 could likely be assembled. The number of 1855-O gold dollars in Mint State that have been graded appears plentiful according to PCGS and NGC - statistics but this is misleading due to resubmissions and coins placed in long-term collections. I have only handled four Uncirculated 1855-O gold dollars in the last two years (two in MS61 and one each in MS62 and MS63), and even if I wasn’t the picky buyer I am, I doubt whether more than three to five could be found in a year’s time.

1839-O $2.50 NGC MS61

3. 1839-O Quarter Eagle

This is another of my favorite New Orleans gold coins. It is extremely popular and there are a number of great factors which make it so: it is a one-year type, it is a first year of issue, and it is the only New Orleans gold coin with the mintmark placed on the obverse. And one more thing…can you say “first gold coin of any denomination struck at the New Orleans mint?”

The comments that I made above for the 1855-O gold dollar apply (mostly) to the 1839-O quarter eagle. The mintage for this issue is much lower (17,781) but the survival rate is reasonably high with VF and EF coins available from time to time. In AU, the 1839-O is moderately scarce and it is rare in Uncirculated with most in the MS60 to MS61 range. In MS62 and above, this issue is quite rare.

The price performance for this issue rivals or exceeds that for the 1855-O gold dollar. In 2008, I would routinely sell an AU55 in the $4,000-4,500 range. Today, a nice CAC quality AU55 will bring close to $6,000.

This is another issue which might be hard to stockpile for a promotion unless a wide range of grades was acceptable. I’ve seen the availability of this issue really dry up in the last two or three years, and I’ve gone from almost always having a nice 1839-O in stock to now having one every three or four months.

1845-O $2.50 NGC AU58 CAC

4. 1845-O Quarter Eagle

This is hands-down the rarest coin on this list and it is an unlikely candidate for promotion, but I’m going to include it anyway. What makes this coin so interesting is its low mintage (only 4,000 were struck) and its relative affordability. (More on this in a second…)

There may be as few as 100-125 known in all grades which, obviously, makes this a hard issue to corner the market on. That said, it is a date that I handle on a reasonably regular basis. As a marketer, I’d think about this as a White Whale issue which is the key to the Liberty Head quarter eagle set; a short-lived and very completable run of 13-14 coins which should be more actively collected by date.

The 1845-O has increased in value over the past few years at the same pace as many of the other popular issues mentioned in this article. A presentable EF example can still be had in the $2,500-3,000 which I feel is one of the great values in all of New Orleans gold. AU examples, which are available more often due to gradeflation, can cost as much as $12,500-15,000 for a choice 58 coin and are hardly what I would call promotable.

If I were marketing New Orleans gold, I would put away every single 1845-O quarter eagle I could find, promote the hell out of the more common quarter eagles, and then sell these coins as “set finishers.” As I mentioned above, this is a set with potential and one with a number of great values at current levels.

1854-O $3.00 NGC AU58+ CAC

5. 1854-O Three Dollar Gold

This is an issue which is absolutely ideal for marketing purposes. It has a great story (it is a one year type and it is the only three dollar gold piece ever made at the New Orleans mint), it is reasonably plentiful (especially in comparison to other issues mentioned in this article), and it is actually fairly affordable with decent quality examples still available in the $3,000-6,000 range.

The 1854-O three dollar has a reasonably low mintage of 24,000. As with its counterpart the 1854-D, this issue is more available than one might assume, and there are hundreds known in the EF and lower AU grades. The 1854-O becomes scarce in properly graded AU55 to AU58, and it is very rare in Uncirculated with fewer than ten known.

Three dollar gold pieces have been out of favor for close to a decade, and this has tended to drag down prices on the 1854-O. Another factor is grading: many examples are conspicuously overgraded and few are choice and original. But I think at current price levels, nice 1854-O three dollar gold piece are a bargain and they could increase nicely if properly marketed.

Could a savvy marketer stash away a decent amount of these? Probably so and certainly with less effort than, say, an 1845-O quarter eagle. Put me down as someone who would love to jump-start the market for this interesting issue!

1840-O $5.00 NGC MS61

6. 1840-O Half Eagle

In the last few years this issue’s counterparts, the 1839-C and 1839-D half eagles, have seen huge price increases. The 1840-O is also a first-year-of-issue coin but, unlike the 1839-C and 1839-D, it isn’t a one year type. And, most importantly, unlike the other two southern half eagles, it is still highly undervalued and much overlooked.

The obvious problem with marketing 1840-O half eagles is availability, especially in high grades. The 1840-O is a truly rare coin but it is not offered for sale with a great degree of frequency. A quick perusal of auction records over the last decade shows an average of four or five 1840-O half eagles per year available for sale. I have handled seven in the last two to three years. So unless a marketer got lucky, it would be very frustrating to try and include this date as a key item.

And yet…this is such a perfect coin to promote. It’s the first half eagle from this mint, it is reasonably affordable (a decent AU can be had for $2,000-4,000) and it is scarcer than the higher priced 1840-C and 1840-D half eagles.

Like I said, for the promoter, the 1840-O half eagle is probably a pipe dream. But that doesn’t keep me from putting it on my list of the ten most promotable gold issues from this mint.

1893-O $5.00 PCGS MS62

7. With Motto Half Eagles (1893-O and 1894-O)

The No Motto half eagles design was made at the New Orleans mint through 1857 and it was then discontinued. It was not resumed until 1892 and then for just three years. The 1892-O is a very scarce issue and way too hard to promote, but the 1893-O and 1894-O are more available.

The 1893-O is the more common of these two dates with an original mintage of 110,000. It is fairly easy to find in circulated grades and available from time to time in MS60 to MS62. Nice circulated 1893-O half eagles can still be found for around $1,000 while a very presentable Uncirculated coin is available for around $2,000.

The 1894-O is more of a challenge. Only 16,600 were made and this issue is hard to find in Uncirculated although it is available in decent quantities in AU grades.

These issues are instantly promotable as short-lived representatives of the With Motto type. Pairing the 1893-O and 1894-O in AU and lower Uncirculated grades is certainly feasible. An ambitious project would be to add an 1892-O (generally priced in the $4,000-6,000+ range) and form a complete three-coin With Motto set.

1909-O $5.00 PCGS MS61 CAC

8. 1909-O Half Eagle

This is probably the most obvious coin to put on this list, and it is an issue which has been subject to a number of promotions in the past. The 1909-O is a distinct one-year type coin which is immediately recognizable as the only Indian Head half eagle from New Orleans. In addition to being a one-year type, it is also a last year issue (how cool would a set of first year/last year half eagles be with an example of an 1840-O and a 1909-O?).

The 1909-O half eagle is one of the ultimate condition rarities. A total of 34,200 were made and from the pattern of grade distribution which exists for this date, it is plain to see that it did see a good deal of local circulation. Most 1909-O half eagles are seen in EF45 to AU55 grades and properly graded AU58’s are scarce. In Uncirculated, the 1909-O is very scarce with most seen in the MS60 to MS61 range. In MS62 and above, this issue is very rare. The finest known is a PCGS MS66 which I recently purchased in the 2014 Heritage FUN auction for $646,250 and immediately sold to a collector who is assembling the finest all-time set of New Orleans gold.

The great story and comparable availability of this coin make it perfect to promote. It is not an inexpensive coin with average quality examples typically selling in the $8,000-15,000 range. But it is possible to accumulate a decent position (although it is likely that any new promotion would run up against existing promotions creating a battle for the supply).

1879-O $10.00 PCGS AU55 CAC

9. With Motto Liberty Head Eagles in Mint State

The With Motto design eagle was first struck in New Orleans in 1879. This issue is very rare and the next issues (1880-0, 1881-O, 1882-O and 1883-O) range from scarce to very rare. After a brief hiatus, production resumed in 1888 and during the next two decades, a total of 11 different New Orleans eagles were struck. The mintage figures for these dates weren’t that high but many issues were shipped overseas and now exist in reasonable quantities.

For a marketer, there are some interesting options with these later date New Orleans eagles. On a single coin basis, they are affordable (lower quality Mint State coins can be had for less than $1,500 each) and they have a relatively small premium when compared to more common “generics” of this era. I have personally assembled a number of 11 coin sets of New Orleans Liberty Head eagles from 1888 through 1906 in MS61 and MS62 grade and I can think of few other affordable collections of gold coins which can be completed this easily yet offer as much satisfaction for the owner.

Three issues (1901-O, 1903-O and 1904-O) can even be found in MS63 with comparable frequency and they are not only reasonably affordable (typically in the $2,500-3,000) range, they have dropped in price over the last five years and have become more available due to lack of demand. At one point in time, a coin such as a 1901-O eagle in MS63 sold for around four times the price of a common date 1901-S in this grade. Today, this ratio is more like three to one and I think the 1901-O in MS63 is great value as a high grade, affordable With Motto eagle from this mint.

1850-O $20.00 NGC AU58

10. Type One Double Eagles (1850-O, 1851-O, and 1852-O)

Few gold coins from New Orleans have shown as much price appreciation as Type One double eagles. This means that most of the issues from this dozen coin group are priced well into five figures; some, like the 1854-O and 1856-O are six figure coins. This leaves the first three issues, the 1850-O, 1851-O and 1852-O, as the most affordable and the only ones with some potential to be marketed.

To me, the neatest of the three issues is the 1850-O and for obvious reasons: it is the very first double eagle made at this mint. Of the three, it is the scarcest and it is quite rare in AU55 and above. I would think that it would be possible to accumulate a small position of these in EF grades but it is not likely to find more than a few in the lower AU range. The 1851-O and 1852-O are seen from time to time in EF and a nice example is now priced in the $4,000-6,000+ range.

In my experience, Type One double eagles from New Orleans are extremely popular and very easy to sell. They are the largest coins from this mint and among the most “valuable.” This makes them in demand with both new collectors and savvy, long-term specialists. As recently as five years ago, you could find these coins in enough quantity to justify a promotion; today, this is probably not as likely but it is certainly an interesting proposition.

For coin marketers, there are few coins with as many “slam dunks” as the gold issues from New Orleans. These are coins with great stories: one year types, low mintage pieces, coins with Civil War connections, etc. Some of these coins are no doubt being accumulated even as you read this for possible future promotions. Others are being avidly collected by an ever-growing cadre of specialists.

If you have any questions about New Orleans gold coins, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.

 

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.

Which Rare Gold Coins Will Be Demand in 2014?

A few years ago, when my blog was more of a newsletter, I used to write an annual piece entitled “What’s Hot, What’s Not.” I’ve never had the heart to go back and look at these; analyzing my analysis has never had appeal. But these were popular features and I thought I would bring them back - but with a twist. Instead of pondering about what will be “hot” in 2014 and what won’t, I thought it would be more interesting to speculate on what are some potentially in-demand areas.

1. Coins Priced Below $2,500

As I write this, the market for interesting gold coins priced at $2,500 and below is extremely strong. Case(s) in point: I used to run a weekly e-mail based sale of coins I called E-Specials which were two or three interesting gold coins priced in the $750-1,250 range. I used to be able to go to a major show and buy a dozen coins like this so the E-Specials would be pre-set for a month or more. Now, I can’t find many coins like this anymore, and I’ve punted the E-Specials.

So, what qualifies as an “interesting” gold coin in this price range? From my selling experience with E-Specials, I found that the parameters that always met with selling success were: PCGS graded, CAC approved, and dated prior to 1880. The interest factor for coins in this price range was greatly improved when I offered large sized issues; i.e., eagles and double eagles.

If I had to list a few specific coins in the $1,000-2,500 price range that I feel will be in demand in 2014 and may show some appreciation as a result, I’d include the following:

1852-D $5.00 PCGS EF45

  • Dahlonega half eagles in EF40 and EF45. The level of demand for nice D mint half eagles is very strong now, especially if they are choice, original coins. In the last few years values have crept up from around $1,600-1,800 to around $2,200-2,500+, and I see no price resistance to even higher numbers for the right coins.
  • With Motto New Orleans eagles in MS61 and MS62. I’ve written this before but if some clever marketer would quietly assemble a position in common and slightly better date With Motto (1888-1906) eagles from New Orleans, prices could go up 20-40% without anyone batting an eyelash. The possibility exists that set collecting could drive this series as no dates are rare and many are available even in MS63 and MS64.
  • Low grade scarce/rare date issues.  One of the major changes in the rare date gold market in the last three to five years has been the sudden surge in demand for affordable examples of tough dates. As an example, a coin like an 1861-S eagle is too expensive in higher grades for most collectors. But a nice Fine or Very Fine can be bought for a few thousand dollars and if the coin is worn but cosmetically appealing, it has a strong level of demand that didn’t necessarily exist a few years back.

2. Coins Priced in the $5,000-10,000 Range

Coins in the price range are my “bread and butter” but I would say this middle range (“middle” at least in the sense of rare gold coins) is the weakest part of the coin market going into 2014. Collectors who buy coins in this range are far more selective now than they were a few years ago, and a coin has to have an “it” factor to sell for $5,000, $7,500, or $10,000. I’ve invented a term called Multiple Levels of Demand to define what I regard as coins that have “it.”

As with coins priced below $2,500, coins priced at around $10,000 have to be interesting, and they have to have good visual appeal. Here are a few areas that I think will be in strong demand in 2014.

1841-D $5.00 NGC AU58 CAC

  • Properly grade AU58 branch mint quarter eagles and half eagles. Nice slider examples if southern branch mint gold coins remain one of the best values in all of 19th century numismatics. As I’ve explained before, a properly graded AU58 (not a coin that “looks like an MS64;” these don’t exist) is a coin that is being rewarded for positive eye appeal while a typical MS60, MS61 and even an MS62 is a coin with faults which are being punished. Most collectors would rather have a nice, natural AU58 Dahlonega half eagle at $5,000-6,000 than a “rubby” MS61 at $9,000-$11,000 and it is hard to blame them.
  • Better date Three Dollar gold pieces. This is a series that has been out of demand for too long and with a little bit of promoting, I could see some improved level of collector demand in 2014 and beyond. There are some great values in this series right now and, interestingly, there are more nice coins available in the $5,000-7,500 range than in many other comparably priced types.

1915 $10.00 PCGS MS65 CAC

  • MS64+CAC Indian Head gold.  From what I’ve seen, the quality of MS64+ Indian Head quarter eagles, half eagles and eagles is pretty nice and the typical example is visually better than MS64. As long as premium aren’t excessive over an average quality MS64, I can see the market expanding even further for these coins in 2014; especially when the price jump to MS65 is at least double or triple.

3. Coins Priced at $20,000 and Over

At this level, the air gets a lot thinner, but the market for nice quality expensive (notice I said “expensive” and not “trophy”) coins is as strong now as I can recall at any time since 2006-2007. Buyers of expensive coins are very discriminating (as they should be), but in my experience, the “right” coins in the $20,000-50,000 range are selling very well and will continue to do so in 2014.

There are a number of areas which fit into this category which I think have good upside in 2014. Here are a few of them.

  • Really exceptional branch mint gold coins in MS63 and MS64. If you look at auction prices from 1999-2001 and compare the values of a coin like an 1847-C quarter eagle in PCGS MS64 then versus now, you will typically see a slight overall decline. There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is that many coins have been graded MS63 or MS64 which are not nice. But in my opinion, a choice, original CAC-quality Dahlonega half eagle in MS63 or a beautiful, naturally toned Charlotte quarter eagle in MS64 is truly rare. These coins may not have date collector demand in these high grades but there are numerous type collectors looking for one or two great coins in all of these series. Watch for demand to increase in 2014 and beyond.
  • Rare date Proof gold in PR64 and PR65. Many of the Proof gold coins from the 1860’s, 1870’s and early 1880’s have tiny original mintages and fewer than half are known. Despite the rarity of a coin like an 1874 quarter eagle in Proof, the focus has been more on large denomination coins (eagles and double eagles) or super-grade pieces in the PR66 to PR68 range. While they are not often available, comparably “affordable” Proof gold dollars, quarter eagles, three dollar gold pieces and even half eagles seem to be increasing in demand and I see no reason that this will not continue through 2014 and beyond.

1863 $5.00 NGC MS60 CAC

  • Truly rare business strikes in Condition Census grades. The level of demand for formerly obscure business strike rarities will increase in 2014 as well. One thing I noticed in 2013 was that when I listed a choice, higher grade example of a truly rare coin on my website, I got multiple inquiries and not just from the “usual suspects.” As an example, I listed two very nice 1863 half eagles on my site in 2013 and I heard from numerous collectors for each of them, including two silver dollar collectors who wanted to buy an 1863 “just because it was cool” and a few dealers who I’ve literally never sold a coin to before.

4. Trophy Coins

In virtually all collectibles areas, the truly great “trophy” items are in huge demand and this will continue in 2014. The NGC MS63 Brasher Doubloon that will be sold by Heritage in a few weeks at the 2014 FUN auction could very well set a record for any coin - and there will be a number of million dollar+ coins in this sale and other auctions immediately afterwards.

A decade ago, the sale of a million dollar United States coin was front-page news; today it is relatively commonplace. As more “big money” discovers the coin market, I look for many exceptional prices realized in 2014, both at auction and via private treaty.

Do you buy rare gold coins?

Do you have coins to sell?

Would you like to have the world's leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?

Contact Doug Winter at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.