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There are just two 1861 Paquet Reverse double eagles known and this issue is ranked as the fourth rarest regular issue United States coin, after the unique 1870-S half dime and three dollar gold pieces and the 1873-CC No Arrows dime.
Read MoreThe sale of this quantity of 1870-CC eagles and double eagles has made me reconsider the rarity and price structure of both issues. It has not only allowed me to get an excellent idea of exact valuations for both issues in a variety of grades, it has led me to ask an important question: is the 1870-CC eagle undervalued in comparison to its double eagle counterpart?
Before I attempt to answer this question, let’s take a quick look at both issues.
A total of 5,908 1870-CC eagles were struck. This is the rarest Carson City eagle (although the 1879-CC makes a strong claim to the rarest coin in the series) and there are an estimated 50-60 pieces known with most in the VG-VF range.
There were 3,789 1870-CC double eagles struck. It is the rarest CC gold coin of any denomination and I feel that there are 35-45 known in all grades; mostly in the VF-EF range.
$10.00 G-VF : 23; EF: 18; AU: 10; UNC: 0; Total: 51
$20.00 G-VF : 6; EF: 22; AU: 5; UNC: 0; Total: 33
These numbers tell us a few things. First, as expected, the 1870-CC double eagle is around twice as rare as its counterpart the 1870-CC. Interestingly, the eagle is seen more often in lower grades (the average example grades VF) while the average grade for the double eagle is EF. Both issues are extremely rare in properly grade AU and are unknown in anything close to Mint State.
We might make the quick conclusion that based on rarity alone, the 1870-CC double eagle should be worth around 2x what an 1870-CC eagle is worth in VF, EF and AU grades.
Based on the sales of so many 1870-CC eagles and double eagles in 2014, I’d suggest the following valuations for each denomination:
VF: $25,000-40,000 (depends on grade/grading service)
EF40: NGC $40,000-45,000; PCGS $45,000-50,000
EF45: NGC $45,000-50,000; PCGS $50,000-55,000
AU50: NGC $60,000-65,000; PCGS $70,000-75,000
AU55: NGC $125,000-135,000; PCGS $150,000-175,000
VF: $175,000-225,000 (depends on grade/grading service)
EF40: NGC $235,000-250,000; PCGS $250,000-265,000
EF45: NGC $260,000-280,000; PCGS $275,000-290,000
AU50: NGC $285,000-295,000; PCGS $310,000-330,000
AU55: NGC $325,000-350,000; PCGS $400,000-425,000
Assuming that the price structure for the 1870-CC double eagle is “correct” (and I think it is, based on the number of coins which have sold over the last few years), why is the 1870-CC eagle not priced at around half the level of its counterpart?
I think there are a few answers to this. The 1870-CC double eagle is a more famous coin with a lower mintage. It is larger in size and it is part of a set (Carson City double eagles) which ranks as among the most avidly collected in all of upper-echelon American numismatics.
Double eagle rarities have multiple levels of demand, and the 1870-CC is a coin that often sells to a collector or investor who might not be a tried and true specialist.
I think we are beginning to see a strong shift in the eagle market and this denomination is now gaining in popularity and price. CC eagles aren’t as popular (yet) as double eagles, but the metrics for these series is clearly changing.
My conclusion is that the 1870-CC eagle is undervalued. If a nice quality EF45 1870-CC double eagle is worth in the $275,000-295,000 range, an 1870-CC eagle at $50,000-55,000 seems substantially undervalued. Given that the 1870-CC eagle in EF is pretty similar in rarity to the 1870-CC double eagle (see the chart above), it is hard to believe that it is worth only 1/5th as much. I can easily see the 1870-CC eagle in EF and AU grades doubling in price in the next five years; I’m not sure I can say the same for the 1870-CC double eagle.
What are your thoughts about the price and rarity of the 1870-CC eagle and double eagle? I would love for you to comment below.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
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I am generally not a participant in the generic gold market as I tend to favor scarce and rare dates over more common ones. But I like Indian Head half eagles a lot and a recent experience made me ask the question: “is it time to buy Indian Head half eagles?” I bought a nice, fresh deal of Indian Head half eagles about six weeks ago. All were in very old holders and I broke them out and sent them off to grading. My results were excellent and nearly every coin graded MS64 or MS65. As I got ready to cash in on my windfall, I did some price research and was shocked. Unless they stickered at CAC (more on this in a few moments) the levels I was going to have to sell them left me breathless…and not in a good way.
If you are like me and you don’t really follow the generic market on a day-by-day basis, it can be mystifying to see how cheap most issues have become in the last few years. My non-CAC MS64 Indian head half eagles were worth around $1700 per coin if they were in NGC holders and a bit more in PCGS holders. I was more shocked at how cheap MS65’s have become: around $9,000 for NGC coins and a smidge over $10,000 for PCGS coins. And that’s not to mention the fact that you basically have to twist buyer’s arms to get them to buy any quantity of these even at these cheap, cheap, cheap levels.
Why are Indian Head half eagles so inexpensive in MS64 and MS65? There are a number of answers.
Firms like Blanchard, Swiss America, and Goldline used to sell lots of better quality generic gold coins; items such as MS64 or MS65 Indian Head half eagles. Today, they either sell few generics or if they do, they are focused on those coins with CAC approval. The supply of MS64 and MS65 Indian Head half eagles has stayed consistent as coins are continually found in Europe or upgraded from current holders. The demand has not kept up with the supply, however, and this has resulted in plummeting prices.
Let’s say you bought a few nice MS65 Indian Head half eagles for $15,000 each back around 2006-2007. You are clearly not a happy with today’s prices so much lower than when you purchased your coins. But why not by a few more and use cost-averaging to lower your overall price point(s)? This logic makes sense to me, but for most coin investors it is exactly what they do not want to do. They feel “burned” by Indian Head half eagles and probably want nothing more to do with them. This lack of continuity in the generic market, due to poor price performance, has clearly not helped this market.
One of the primary reasons why CAC was created was to identify those generic gold coins, particularly in series such as Indian Head half eagles, where the perception was that many coins in MS64 and MS65 holders were over-graded or not, at the very least, “solid” for the grade. CAC has proven to be very tough on Indian Head half eagles, and only a small percentage of the MS64 and MS65 coins sent in for approval have received a green sticker. As a result, stickered MS64 and MS65 Indian Head half eagles sell for very strong premiums; in most cases 25-50% over non-stickered coins. The market perception of non-stickered MS64 and MS65 Indian Head half eagles is they are not “good” coins and, as a result, the price gap between non-CAC and CAC stickered generic gold coins is widening. My gut feeling is that non-stickered MS65 Indian Head half eagles could ultimately be worth half as much as their CAC’d counterparts.
It is a matter of opinion whether coins graded MS64+ are actually “better” than coins graded MS64, but the market perception is such that plus-graded coins have begun to sell for significant premiums, even in the generic market. If you are a new collector and you are offered a “regular” MS64 Indian Head half eagle for $1,750, or an MS64+ example for $2,250, the chances are good that you will spend the extra $500 and get the “better” coin. This has clearly hurt the market for MS64 Indian Head half eagles, and it is likely that we will see further price separation between MS64 and MS64+ coins.
More than anything else, the generic gold coin market has been hampered by a lack of demand. Past generations of new collectors and investors were introduced to numismatics by the assembling of the basic 11 or 13 coin U.S. gold coin type set. Today, new collectors are more inclined to collect something which is rare. For $10,000, an AU 1864 half eagle (slightly over 4,000 struck and under 75 known in all grades) is a more sensible purchase than an MS65 1909-D half eagle (nearly 3.5 million struck and over 100 graded in MS65 at PCGS alone) in the minds of these new collectors. It will take a large marketing promotion and lots of re-education to get new collectors to re-think this.
So what is my conclusion? Is it time to buy Indian Head half eagles in MS64 and MS65? I’d like to say yes, but I think that prices could easily drop another 20-30% on these coins in the next year or two. In my opinion, if levels get down to $1,500 for nice MS64’s and $7,500 for MS65’s, I would jump in the market, likely in a big way. For now, I’d avoid this coin unless you need one for a gold type set or if you are a contrarian with some tolerance for risk.
What’s your take on the Indian Head half eagle series and generic gold in general? I’d love to hear from you and encourage you to add your comment(s) in the section below.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?
Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.
Around a week ago I read a press release stating that the Pogue collection would be sold by Stacks Bowers in a series of auctions “over the next several years.” My reaction? Unprintable in this blog (hint, starts with: Holy) but understandable, given that it is well-known within the dealer community that this is quite probably the greatest collection of American coins ever formed, and that there were no rumors floating around that it might be sold.
After pondering the Pogue Situation for a few hours, I’ve reached a few initial reactions which I’d like to share with you.
Other than a handful of people, there are not many numismatists that are aware of the complete inventory of this collection, and I am not one of the lucky few. Over the years, I’ve been shown little date runs from the collection (I can remember looking at a phenomenal group of early quarters at Dave Akers’ table at an ANA convention 10-15 years ago that belonged to the Pogues and, at another ANA show maybe 15 years ago a group of Fat Head half eagles which were mind-blowing) and have received tidbits of information from Brent about what he has. But this is truly a once-in-a-generation collection and it is certainly the only collection that I would actually pay to see in person.
It is nearly impossible to know the value of a collection which you haven’t seen in person and don’t even know for sure what it includes. If I had to give a good guesstimate, I’d say the collection is easily worth $150 million, and it could ultimately be worth $200 million or even more. It contains a coin which is likely to set a record for most valuable United States issue ever sold at auction (the Childs/Pogue PCGS PR68 Original 1804 Dollar) and it contains at least two other coins (the 1822 half eagle and the 1854-S half eagle) that could break the $5 million dollar barrier. There are scads of mid to high six-figure coins in the Pogue collection, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a number of other coins which will break the $1 million dollar mark when they are sold at auction.
If you collect finest known or Condition Census early American gold or silver coinage, the news of this sale impacts you critically. There are going to be countless once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for collectors and you will need to start planning your strategy sooner than later. If you are planning to sell high quality coins in the near future, you have to ask yourself: will the prices I realize for my coins be impacted by Pogue? If you are planning to buy an expensive early American coin, how will prices be impacted by Pogue?
One fallout I see happening is a rush to trade-in certain coins which are nice but which are exceeded in quality by Pogue. Some collectors will trade in coins wisely, others will make poor decisions. Working with a smart, informed dealer is the best way to make your decisions the right ones.
For the most part, the impact of foreign buyers in American coin sales has been insignificant. Sure, a few foreign buyers bid in American sales but not enough to have a serious impact. This could change with the Pogue sales.
Stacks Bowers has made strong inroads selling foreign coins via auction in Hong Kong and, if I were them, I’d take the Pogue coins to exhibit in Hong Kong and at least one other location in the Far East before the dates of the sales. There is a better-than-average chance that they will interest at least one or two wealthy Chinese buyers in these great American coins, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a not insignificant amount of the dollar value for some of the sales went to foreign bidders.
Now that I think of it, I’d probably take the coins to London as well and expose them to European and dual national buyers in this important market.
As we witnessed with the Saddle Ridge Hoard discovery and subsequent sale, the newest incarnation of the internet has forever changed the rare coin market.
When the Eliasberg and Bass sales were sold in the 1980’s and late 1990’s, there was essentially no internet. The Pogue collection is the first truly great American coin auction which will be picked up by world-wide press outlets and which will receive untold amounts of publicity on internet news outlets.
Stacks Bowers has the potential of reaching nearly every wealthy person in nearly every country with relative ease. All it takes is a few Indian men of extreme wealth, Russian oligarchs, Chinese and other far Eastern billionaires, and American hedge fund managers to bring the Pogue collection to a new pool of ultra-wealthy buyers who might not have known about rare American coins. What seemed far-fetched a few years ago seems possible today.
A smart dealer friend made this comment when looking at the current embarrassment of riches when it comes to auctions. He was referring to the point in time when we had scads of sales of great coins in the mid to late-1990’s: James Stack, Pittman, Childs, Eliasberg (silver), and Bass were all sold within a span of less than a decade. If you were in the market then, you remember how great coins were suddenly everywhere and you’d see coins like Proof 1868 three dollar gold pieces or Proof 1877 half eagles sitting, unsold, in dealers cases; coins which would sell quickly today if available.
The impact of these 1990’s sales was profound. After some temporary weakness in the market, a run of boom years began around 2001/2002 which lasted all the way up to the economic issues of 2008/2009. In part, this boom was fueled by the availability of great coins from these great old collections. After all, you can’t have a bull market in coins if there are no great coins to sell.
And this is what could happen after the Pogue coins sell. The coins which don’t get bought by collectors and which don’t get “black holed” are likely to sit in dealer’s inventories and impact dealer’s cash flow. If, say, the Pogue sales begin in 2015 and conclude by 2017, we might see an oversupply of coins in 2018, 2019 and 2020. This could, in turn, weaken the market.
But, to take another perspective, perhaps the market will be deep enough this time around (due to the amazing amount of global wealth) to absorb the Pogue’s $200+ million without skipping a beat. We shall see…
At this point you are thinking, “OK enough of the babbling, Winter, how is this sale going to impact me?"
Fair enough.
Not every coin owned by the Pogues is a finest known six figure rarity, so it is likely that if you are a regular DWN client, there are going to be some coins in the sales that interest you, anywhere from casually to obsessively. So let’s operate under the assumption that you might want to consider expanding your coin budget in the next few years.
If you are the typical DWN client who feels comfortable spending $5,000 or $10,000 on a neat American gold coin, the Pogue sales aren’t going to have a huge impact on you. The sale of the finest known 1838-C half eagle (the Pogue collection contains a gorgeous PCGS MS63) isn’t going to impact the value of a nice AU50 example that I sold you in 2010.
I see the sale of this collection as a positive. Coins will become better known across the world thanks to the internet-driven publicity of the Pogue collection and, if it is done as well as I think Stacks Bowers will do it, the number of serious collectors of serious American coins could increase. A lot.
The greatest impact will be on the very top of the market; the 1% if you will. There will be a lot of juggling and jostling to see who has the best 1794 half dollar or the finest 1795 half eagle after the grades of the Pogue coins become better known.
Given the fact that the Pogue collection really came of age after the family bought heavily in the 1982 Eliasberg gold sale, I think the Eliasberg pedigree will become even more important than it is today. When today’s new collectors see how many great Pogue coins are from the Eliasberg sale, the legacy of the Eliasberg pedigree will grow and grow.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?
Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.
In January 2012, the San Francisco stamp auction firm of Schyler Rumsey sold the Broadus Littlejohn collection of US gold coins. This little-known collection hinted that something was afoot in the rare date gold market. Instead of focusing on traditional bellwether rare date gold items like Charlotte and Dahlonega quarter eagles and half eagles (of which there were extensive date runs in the sale), the strength was in the eagle date run, especially the rare San Francisco coins from the 1860’s and the rare low mintage Philly coins from the 1870’s.
The Littlejohn sale was off the radar for many collectors and dealers, and even though I wrote a detailed analysis about the prices realized, I don’t think its impact was felt at the time.
What most dealers didn’t know (confession: myself included) was that there had been an all-consuming rare date gold buyer way off the grid. The Bently Collection, which focused on Western rarities from San Francisco and Carson City, was being quietly amassed, and it contained quantities which seem borderline unimaginable.
The Bently collection was a strange amalgam of coins ranging from no-grades to Condition Census pieces. Mr. Bently was a voracious consumer of certain issues (as an example, he appears to have had a “thing” for 1870-CC double eagles, and he owned more of them at one time than any other collector in history) and if he liked an issue, he’d buy it in “VG details” or MS65.
Which brings me to the gist of this story: the Bently Effect. How ironic is it that a little-known uber-accumulation of coins is probably more responsible for impacting the rare date gold market than once-in-a-lifetime master collector like Harry Bass? How much of it is the coins themselves, and how much is it the timing of the sale(s)? How much of it is the impact and reach of the internet? How much of it is just pure blind luck and changing trends within the market?
While I have been dazzled by the scope and breadth of the collection, I have been mostly underwhelmed by the coins themselves. For every nice, original coin in the Bently holdings, there are numerous coins that are either damaged or heavily processed. Bently was, I doubt, a bottom feeder and I doubt he was buying solely with price in mind. From what I know about Mr. Bentley, he was an older gentleman who sold his company and decided to enjoy his final years enjoying nice things. His primary supplier was faced with the age-old dilemma with this sort of numismatic supernova: do I sell my super-secret mega customer a few nice coins every week or do I sell him everything I can get my hands on? I would have chosen the former, but some dealers would choose the latter… (And who’s to say that this isn’t the better strategy from a business standpoint?)
A very curious set of circumstances happened while the Bently coins were being accumulated. Carson City double eagles became extremely popular and rose significantly in price; not as a result of Mr. Bently’s purchases but rather as a consequence of new collectors in the market and two large wholesale promotions. That Mr. Bentley had hundreds and hundreds of CC double eagles ranging from common dates in VF to rarities in Uncirculated was understandable given his interest in double eagles and western coins. That his estate came on the market at exactly the perfect time is one of those delightful coincidences that seemed to follow Mr. Bently around; a smaller version, perhaps of his life story.
A sophisticated collector recently asked me an interesting question about this collection; would Bently have been better off buying two or three nice 1875-CC double eagles (say MS62 to MS63) than twenty marginal (EF40 to AU50) examples? Possibly. But for many rare issues in the first three Bently auctions, the appearance of the coins themselves has had little consequence to their prices realized.
If you accept my statement that market areas such as rare San Francisco eagles are currently very hot, and you accept my premise that many buyers of such coins don’t really know the difference between a nice original coin and a processed but commercially acceptable one, you’ll suddenly understand why I have been pretty awed at the prices that a lot of the Bently coins have brought. As a dealer who has lived through decades of malaise for coins like 1860-S half eagles, to suddenly not be able to buy an AU58 after bidding close to $20,000 seems mystifying.
But we live in an era of Instant Numismatic Expertise and any collector can suddenly be armed with the same rarity and price information that an expert collector or dealer has taken years to accumulate. (Of course, accumulating this information and actually being able to make sense of it are two entirely different things…)
Looking back at the remarkable Bass sales of 1999-2001, one thing that instantly hits me is that could just as easily have been conducted by the Chapman Brothers in 1899-1901. I remember that the insanely great Bass II sale in 1999 was essentially carved up by ten or so bidders with no internet and almost no mail bidding. Imagine something like this happening today.
The Bently Effect is a set of circumstances that have come together to create the Perfect Wave in the history of the dated gold market. A market hungry for rare coins like 1864-S half eagles and eagles. A lack of availability of these coins (partly due to the fact that Mr. Bently had bought nearly every available example in the last 5+ years). A shift in taste in the dated gold market with Big and Western suddenly being the new “in” coins. The ability of Heritage to properly catalog, market and sell these coins (Kudos to whoever is managing the Bently collection and resisting the temptation to sell too many duplicate coins at once, as have other ultra-comprehensive sales in the past). And, last but not least, the power of the new Internet-driven market which has forever changed the coin business, in ways in which we still do not (in 2014) totally understand.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert help you assemble a set of coins?
Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.
So here’s the skinny.
Every week I’m going to choose a coin which, after my nearly three decades as a professional dealer, still gives me goosebumps to buy. You’ll be surprised by some of my choices. Some won’t be gold coins but will be nostalgia-based due to my early days in the coin market (hint: I’m still intimidated by those gaping holes for the 1856 and 1877 in my circa 1968-70 Flying Eagle and Indian Head Penny set). Others won’t be rare in the true sense of the word, but will have a design or an historical element which still appeals to me. And yet others won’t be specific dates but rather types (Fat Heads!) which get me hot and bothered to this day.
While this is probably a social media pipe dream, I’d love for this series to be interactive and for you to share with me (and the readers of this series) your thoughts on the coins I select and your own "10 in 10."
Look for this series to begin next week.
Confession time:
I participated in the recent offering of 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame commemorative issues, and did so in the most mercenary way: I bought them, paid extra for NGC and PCGS gimmick labels (early release or something of this ilk) and flopped them as fast as I could get my greedy little hands on them.
When I arrived at the recent Baltimore coin show, I had just barely heard that the new Hall of Fame coins were going to be released in limited quantities. Being a lifetime baseball fan, these coins appealed to me from a historic perspective. Being an art aficionado, the revolutionary new designs of these coins appealed to me as well.
I didn’t really have time to formulate a game plan, but I knew these coins were going to be winners. I also knew that there would be a decent opportunity to buy them and flip them for a decent profit. I quickly realized that given the limits of how many coins I could buy, and the fact that this would take away from my main reason for being at the show (buying and selling rare 18th and 19th US gold coins), my participation in the Great Baltimore Baseball Coin Flip was going to be modest at best. Still, for Mr. Rare Coin Snob, any sort of participation in the modern market seemed like a blog topic at the very least.
To make a long story short, my wife (who was with me at the show) got on line around 10am, somehow was third in line, and waited until 10:58am when she texted me that the line was starting to move, and to get over to the Mint booth ASAP.
We each bought our full allotment, and quickly ran the coins over to be graded. On the way there, a friend suggested that I split the coins in half to “hedge” my grading. This seemed like a pretty clever idea so while I submitted them to NGC, my wife walked them over to PCGS. A day and a half later we had them back, all in MS/PR69 and 70 holders, and looking pretty spiffy if I may say so.
Since I promised my wife the full profits from this deal as she was the one who patiently waited in line (her impatient husband doesn’t “do” lines very well…) I then asked her how she wanted to sell the coins. I gave her a few options: we could flip them immediately and make a pretty decent profit, we could hold them for a few weeks or months and see how the market for these coins played out, or we could sell them on E-Bay. She chose her own option: she decided to consign them to Great Collections where, even as we speak, they are being offered for sale.
A few quick observations about my foray into moderns:
I don’t often deal with the mint so I didn’t realize I was dealing with such a low-tech operation. When it was time for our orders to be filled, they were both done incorrectly and done without barcodes and scanners. I heard that the fulfillment issues grew worse as the line grew longer.
Some other news that might make me embrace Ron Paul: the Mint ran out of gold coins a few hours into the sale and had no contingency plans to bring more coins in; even though they could have sold hundreds if not thousands. The Mint had no idea that they were going to be so successful, and didn’t even bring stanchions for the long lines which even a Modern Coin Newbie like me knew would inevitably form. The Mint personnel at the show seemed nice and they seemed overwhelmed. Perhaps a little marketing meeting before the sale might have helped…
I had vaguely followed the story about the Baseball HOF coins in the numismatic press and from the printed/online images they looked OK. In person, they were far better. The concave/convex design is unique in American numismatics and it is an impressive feat from a technological standpoint. The design was “different” without being hokey and as a collector, this is a modern coin I might actually want to own. I liked the gold coins the best and I liked them as Proofs better than I did as business strikes.
One of the reasons I don’t deal in modern coins is that they are extremely labor intensive. As an example, when I got them graded, I had to remove all the coins from the original packaging; taking care not to destroy the packaging or discarding the COA’s. Yes, I know this sounds very wimpy, but it was time consuming and really kind of a pain. The whole key to buying and selling modern coins is a mastery of logistics. I’m a pretty good coin dealer, but I am crappy at logistics, hence my decision to stick with what I know best.
I couldn’t write a blog about baseball with using this cliché. Just couldn’t. Sorry.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?
Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.
It is an established fact in the market that coins from the major shipwrecks are worth a premium over non-shipwreck coins. This is especially true for S.S. Central America coins with low shipwreck populations. But this information can be misinterpreted and can cause a collector to overpay. Let me give you an example.
Recently, I was offered a decent quality AU58 1855-S double eagle by another dealer. As part of his sales pitch, he mentioned that an example had recently sold for $7,931; thus his coin, priced at $7,500, seemed like a good deal. What he conveniently failed to mention to me was that this auction price was for a coin pedigreed to the S.S. Central America and that the last non-SSCA coin had brought $5,288. Once I mentioned this, his reaction was a simple “oh…I forgot to mention that, huh?”
When you are figuring prices for S mint coins, especially Type One double eagles, the sales records for shipwreck coins have little bearing on non-shipwreck coins and vice versa.
The premiums that shipwreck coins sell for are packaging-dependent. In other words, an AU58 1855-S double eagle from the S.S. Central America is worth more (quite a bit more in fact) if it is in an original PCGS gold-foil holder than in an NGC holder. Why? Because in this instance, the coins from the SSCA were originally graded by PCGS, and collectors want them in their original packaging.
Another example: in 2013, three PCGS/CAC MS66 1857-S double eagles in their original gold-foil holders were sold at auction, and they brought $32,900, $32,900, and $33,030. Two NGC MS66 examples sold this year and they realized $17,625. Why? Because the market clearly realizes that these coins were formerly PCGS MS65’s and because they are no longer in their original holders.
As I have previously discussed, many San Francisco issues do not come nice, and it is likely that their CAC populations will be very low. Let me give you two quick examples.
The 1862-S half eagle is a very scarce date in all grades and it is seldom found choice and original. PCGS has graded 39, and CAC shows a current population of just two coins; an EF40 and an EF45. Now granted that many 1862-S half eagles in PCGS holders have not been sent to CAC, but the fact two only two have been approved (and none above EF45) indicates that this is an issue that is not seen with a nice, natural appearance.
As another example, let’s look at the 1862-S eagle; a date which is nearly as rare as its half eagle counterpart. PCGS has graded 45 examples and CAC shows a current population of just two: an EF45 and an AU55. Again, not all the PCGS coins have been sent to CAC, but my feeling is that the percentage of 1862-S eagles (and half eagles) with CAC approval will remain very small; probably less than 10% of the coins graded.
It seems to me that CAC approved examples of the 1862-S half eagle and eagle should be worth a fairly significant premium above their non-CAC counterparts.
When it comes to rare/very rare San Francisco gold coinage, most published price guides are of little to no use. Auction prices are far more relevant, and this is how I price such coins. So how do you price a coin in, say, EF45 when the last auction record was in 2008?
Here are some of the factors that I take into consideration when pricing San Francisco gold. First, is the coin fundamentally rare? In the case of the aforementioned 1862-S half eagle and eagle, these are issues which are rare in all grades. Secondly, how nice is the coin which is being offered to me? Is it abraded, not terribly original and softly struck, or is it relatively free of marks, original and well impressed for the issue? If it is the former, an older auction record might have some weight with my pricing. If it is the latter, I know I will have to stretch; maybe considerably.
As San Francisco gold becomes more popular, we are seeing a distinct bifurcation of the market: the coins made prior to 1879 which tend to be rare in all grades, and the coins made after 1879 which tend to be rare only in high (or very high grades).
I think we will continue to see quite a bit strength in the rarity-driven market as collectors tend to be more interested in coins like 1862-S half eagles in VF than in 1892-S half eagles grading MS64. The market for condition rarities will be more hit or miss. Certain coins, including many of the “top pops” from the Saddle Ridge Hoard, will be eagerly absorbed into collections. Others may prove far harder to sell.
There were six different denominations of gold coinage produced at the San Francisco mint. There were just four years in which all six denominations were made, and one of these includes a unique issue (the 1870-S three dollar). This leaves collectors with three possible choices for six-coin year sets: 1856, 1857, and 1860.
None of these three years contains an impossible rarity, and the first two years could even be completed in Uncirculated grades. The 1860-S is the most difficult set as the half eagle and the eagle are both rare in all grades, and virtually impossible to find above AU55.
I don’t think these sets are The Next Big Thing in coin collecting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few savvy collectors attempted to complete at least one year.
There are numerous high-value San Francisco gold coins in both PCGS and NGC holders which have questionable color. I suggest you learn what original color looks like for the San Francisco issues which are of interest to you. Notice I didn’t suggest you learn how to grade; I think most of you taking the time to read this have other things to do with your few free minutes per day. But I do think it’s important to learn that, as an example, all 1862-S quarter eagles are supposed to have a certain shade of color, and if you see one which isn’t close to this shade, it’s likely been enhanced.
How do you learn what original coins look like? Look at catalogs with old time collections (Bass, Norweb, James Stack, and Eliasberg) and study the hues/patterns of color that these coins had. Go to the ANA Museum in Colorado Springs and study the Bass coins. Carefully study the raregoldcoins.com Coinapedia to see hundreds of pictures of unmolested, original coins.
Many new collectors of San Francisco gold are thrown off by the difference between strike and wear on Type One and Type double eagles; two of the most popular series from this mint.
As you begin to learn about these coins, you will begin to determine that certain issues are always found with weakness on the hair or on the stars or even at the centers. Learn which issues are struck which way. This is reasonably easy to do as photo archives for higher grade San Francisco double eagles can be found on ha.com or on PCGS Coinfacts.
I have written before on Best Value Grades. As San Francisco gold coins become more popular and increase in value, I think this is an important point for collectors to consider.
So far, the San Francisco gold coin renaissance has been led by large-size coins: eagles and double eagles. Will this increase in popularity carry over to smaller coins?
I can see gold dollars and three dollars from this mint becoming popular due to the possibility of these being collected by series, and the possibility of these sets being completed.
The quarter eagles from this mint I’m not as sure about. The fundamentals of these coins make sense to me. Other than the 1854-S, all the issues are obtainable and many can be purchased in Uncirculated grades for under $5,000. But with the exception of the Civil War issues, these coins have just not yet caught on with collectors.
The “wild card” series is the half eagles. These are already reasonably expensive coins and in the case of the Civil War rarities, and they are more expensive than most any southern branch mint half eagle while (currently) being far less popular. It is hard to call a moderately popular (but indisputably rare) issue like an 1862-S half eagle “undervalued” when it is already a pricey coin. But “value” is relative, especially in the rare date gold market and I think San Francisco half eagles—at least those struck prior to 1878—are destined to become very avidly collected in the next few years.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?
Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.
Unless you spent the last two weeks in deep space you have no doubt read about/discussed/dreamt about the fabulous Saddle Ridge hoard. Enough has already been written about the background of this hoard that I won’t repeat it here. (NBC News, BBC, CNN, Yahoo, etc.) The scope of this find has truly captured the fancy of the collecting and non-collecting public alike, and I have been asked about the coins dozens of times; from people ranging from good clients to my doctor to my barista who chatted me up about the “stolen coins” while making me a pour over macchiato today at my local coffee joint. This is a story with legs.
What I find fascinating about this story is that it is the first great “treasure “ to be found in the day of Web 2.0. When the lost 1913 Nickel was rediscovered a few years ago, it certainly made the rounds on the web, but stayed mainly in numismatic circles. And when the greatest find of them all, the S.S. Central America, was discovered oh so many years ago, there wasn’t even an internet around for the story to go viral; it had to build its momentum over the course of months; not moments.
As I mentioned above, I have been asked a lot of questions about these coins; enough so that I thought it made sense to blog about them so I could just say “read my blog” the next time someone asks me the following.
Here are some thoughts about the Saddle Ridge hoard that I’d like to share.
Much of the information I read online about the source and origin of the coins was seemingly invented by reporters who never bothered to check their source(s), and some blatantly wrong numismatic information was written by “news” sources who should have known better. Stolen coins…uh, I don’t think so. Special presentation piece made to commemorate the death of President Lincoln…? Nope.
Wrong information aside, the coins provided the gold coin market was the type of exposure you’d have to spend millions of dollars to generate. It was a true viral buzz and any coin story that doesn’t involve a Long Island telemarketer swindling a little old lady for her life savings is a good story in my book.
Often times, deals like this wind up with the wrong people. This time it didn’t.
David McCarthy, the senior numismatist at Kagin’s, is a close friend of mine and he deserves kudos for a host of reasons: treating the owners fairly, properly conserving the coins, making savvy marketing decisions, and just generally doing the right thing. David is one of the good guys in the business and I am really happy for him and his 15+++ minutes of fame. And damn if he didn’t clean up nicely for TV. (Sadly the Good Morning America clip is not currently available online, but CoinWeek has a nice short piece on YouTube.)
Amazon.com has flirted with entering the coin market before, but for a number of reasons they couldn’t find the best way to enter the market. So why not enter the market with a deal worth millions of dollars and with scads of good publicity?
But this deal could really be win-win for the owners and for Amazon. With all the publicity these coins have garnered, they are clearly worth a premium. Who better to possibly reach the ultimate audience of non-collectors who might be willing to pay the sort of premium which might (or might not) seem too high to dyed-in-the-wool collectors than a company who gets more traffic every minute than I probably do in a month? Well, you might say, the traffic you get is more established and (most) everyone on the raregoldcoins.com site is a likely buyer. But as the owners of the coins - wouldn't you rather have them exposed to millions and millions of people worldwide than an audience of a few thousand established collectors? And if doesn’t work on Amazon? The coins are still great and still can be sold through more established numismatic channels. If Amazon does well and becomes a player in the coin market, it’s great for everyone. If it doesn’t work? No harm, no foul…
When I heard that the coins were going to be on display at the Atlanta show I was skeptical. Would they be bright, shiny, and obviously conserved? Would PCGS get carried away with the grading ? Would the coins themselves mostly be common date double eagles in slightly uncommon grades?
The 50 or so coins that were on display at the show were impressive to say the least. Many were the best examples of their specific issue that I have ever seen, and they look fresh and original; not overly conserved. I think PCGS did a nice job grading them and I really liked the special gold labels which PCGS prepared for the coins. I arrived expecting to be unimpressed and left impressed. And my guess is that most collectors are going to feel the same; at least with the top 10-20% of the coins in the hoard; I can’t speak for the remaining examples.
Ah…the $10 million dollar question. Since the majority of the coins were Type Two and Type Three double eagles from San Francisco, the scope of the hoard is narrow and series specific. I haven’t seen a list of all the coins, but I assume that the majority of them are dated in the mid to late 1870’s and the 1880’s. One area that will be greatly impacted are slightly better date SF Type Threes, like an 1887-S or an 1888-S. If there are 100 MS63 1887-S double eagles, this date could drop in value by 20-50% . And the biggest loser is likely to be the guy who owns the current finest known 1877-S or 1879-S (to pick two random dates) who might see his $50,000+ population one/none better coin become a population two/one better coin.
The Condition Census and Finest Known coins could easily be absorbed by the market as long as they are fairly priced. From some of the preliminary numbers I’ve seen thrown around (such as “a million dollars” for the new finest known 1866-S No Motto) it feels that the asking prices might be extremely aggressive. If the coins are priced “right,” they will sell easily. My guess is that these are not the coins that will be sold on Amazon and will, instead, be offered via private treaty by Kagin’s and/or other specialist dealers or via auction.
The market for San Francisco gold coins has heated up in recent years after near-permanent dormancy. The Saddle Ridge hoard can only do good things to this area of the market. Will it make an 1859-S half eagle in AU50 more valuable? Not directly, but it will focus more attention on SF gold and it is likely that a few deep-pocketed new collectors who buy a Saddle Ridge knick-knack will be compelled to focus on other gold coins from this mint. The Type One double eagle market back in the 1990’s was jumpstarted by the availability of the SS Central America 1857-S double eagles and this market has been in hyper-demand ever since.
My gut feeling is that a less expensive (sub-$5,000) SF Type Three double eagle in average Uncirculated grades is going to have an ultimate premium of 10-30% for its saddle Ridge provenance. I would assume the original premium will be much higher and, as with the SSCA double eagles, it will evaporate over the first few years only to come back as the coins are absorbed. The numismatically significant five figure coins probably won’t be accorded a big premium. The finest known 1877-S double eagle is a valuable, desirable coin but it won’t be worth an extra $5,000 or $10,000 because it is from this hoard.
One thing that will be interesting to see is how the collectors who focus on shipwreck coins view this hoard. As an example, “unique” coins from the S.S. Central America (i.e., coins which were one of a kind from the shipwreck) now bring a huge premium due to their collectability; something which was not the case even six or eight years ago. What sort of premium will the only Dahlonega half eagle from this hoard be accorded? My guess is that the premium will be quite significant, and that these coins will be collected alongside the S.S.Central America, Brother Jonathan and S.S. Republic shipwreck coins.
The Saddle Ridge Hoard is certainly a topic which could be discussed endlessly, and I have the feeling that this is not the last time you will read a DWN Blog on the subject. I look forward to your comments and, hopefully, to selling a few of the neater coins from this group later in the year.
Do you buy rare gold coins?
Do you have coins to sell?
Would you like to have the world’s leading expert with you assembling a set of coins?
Contact me, Doug Winter, directly at (214) 675-9897 or by email at dwn@ont.com.
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