Why Are Nice Coins So Hard to Find?

When I'm at shows or talking to collectors and dealers over the phone, I hear a common refrain: nice coins are very hard to find. This appears to be the case in nearly all strongly collected series, be it Indian Cents, Civil War era gold or Morgan Dollars. I have a few theories about this which I'd like to share. The first is simple: not everyone has the same concept of what is a "nice" coin. I like dirty, original 18th and 19th century gold and a coin with the aesthetics that I find appealing is clearly not going to be the same for someone who likes coins that are bright and shiny.

I don't think the moaning about a lack of nice coins is new and I'm guessing that collectors in 1912 were complaining in some of the same ways that collectors in 2012 are.

Let me share a theory with you that is basically speculative but which I think has some real merit. As I have stated many times, grading is a continuum. A "grade" is actually a range which can be expansive. As an example, let's look at the MS63 grade.

Assuming that you agree that grading is a continuum, you'll agree with me that MS63 is actually a series of grades that begins with MS63.0 and ends with MS63.9. I would further describe these ranges as follows:

63.0-63.3: coins that are low end or which barely qualify as this grade. I estimate that for the typical series, around 40-45% of the MS63's fall into this range.

63.4-63.5: coins that are decent and which would easily re-grade as a 63 if resubmitted to PCGS or NGC. I estimate that for the typical series around 30-35% of the MS63's fall into this range.

63.6-63.8:  coins that are high end for the grade and which are now (sometimes) designated as "+" or "*" coins by the services. I estimate that for the typical series maybe 10-15% of the MS63's fall into this range.

63.9:  coins that are exceptional for the grade and which are almost assuredly going to upgrade to MS64 at some point. I estimate that for the typical series maybe 5% (and probably less) of the MS63's fall into this range.

If my theory is correct, this mean that at least 70-80% of all MS63 coins are below-average to average in quality. The best of these "average" coins (a coin that I regard as being a solid, commercial example) is likely to get strong consideration for approval at CAC but the majority of them will not be stickered. These not-so-great or just-OK coins are the ones that are generally seen on E-Bay or in Heritage sales, and these are what many collectors are exposed to on a regular basis.

So what about the 20-30% of the MS63's that range from being really nice to exceptional? Where are they and why are they so hard to find? I think the answer(s) are simple.

In many series, there is huge financial motivation to upgrade an MS63 to an MS64. As an example, an 1812 half eagle in MS63 is worth around $22,500-25,000; the same coin in an MS64 holder is worth $35,000-45,000. If I own an 1812 half eagle that I regard as a 63.7 or a 63.8, doesn't it seem obvious that I'm going to go to great lengths to get the coin in a 64 holder and possibly have a $10,000 to $20,000 pay day?

Which brings me to this point: virtually all the high end MS63 coins are in MS64 holders or trying to get there. The MS63+ coins (which translate to the 63.6 to 63.8 pieces described above) are therefore the best available coins and they are typically sold by good retail dealers to their best clients. The typical collector either never gets to see these PQ coins or if he does, often in an auction environment, he has to compete with sophisticated buyers of high end coins.

Another point: I think there are more high end coins around than most collectors (and dealers) realize. It's just that we don't see them as often and much of what we do see on a day-by-day or show-by-show basis is uninspiring.

Now that you've mulled over that theory, I have another one to share with you. Next time you wonder "where are all the nice coins" consider the following fuzzy math.

If a coin is 150 or so years old, it has been collectible for 100 or so years. If the typical coin is owned around five years (and yes I am aware that there are many coins that are in "strong hands" and don't trade until they are held for fifteen or twenty years) that means that the coin you just bought may have had as many as twenty previous owners.

Think about this: that means some or maybe even all of these twenty owners have shipped the coins through the mail in flimsy holders/cleaned the coins/mishandled the coins/stored the coins in PVC flips/stored them loose in cabinets/dipped them and forgot to rinse them/etc. For a coin in nearly any grade to have survived generations of overzealous collectors without having had something bad done to them...well, that just about boggles my mind. And that, in a nutshell, is another very good reason why nice coins are so hard to find.

Are you in the market for nice coins? Send me an email at dwn@ont.com and I will try to hook you up with some very nice coins for your collection!

Dallas Texas and the History of American Coin Collecting

I am headed to Dallas later this week to attend the upcoming ANA National Money show. Going to Dallas is always a little bittersweet for me. I lived in The Big D for a significant portion on my adult life (a little over twenty years, in fact, with a few diversions), and it's where I met my late wife and essentially learned to be a coin dealer. Dallas doesn't have the long numismatic history that New York, Boston and Philadelphia have but despite the fact that it is a comparatively new city, I'd venture to say that it is the epicenter of the modern coin market. The two most important coin dealers of all-time were located in Dallas and at least three to five of the greatest collections of American coins ever formed were created in Dallas as well. A little history follows...

B. Max Mehl, located in Dallas' sister town of Ft. Worth was unquestionably the most important coin dealer in America during the first half of the 20th century. What is so remarkable about Mehl was that he was an immigrant from Lithuania who despite no formal numismatic training (and, in all probability, a lack of all but the most basic English skills for the first part of his career) managed to build a dynamic coin business thousands of miles away from the traditional Eastern hub of the business.

Mehl built his business around clever promotions, self-promotion and using direct mail and advertising at a time when no other coin dealers were doing this, let alone doing this successfully. It is said that his advertising budget in the 1930's and 1940's approached $1 million per year and that at one time a significant portion of the daily mail that arrived in the city of Ft. Worth was addressed to Mehl.

Mehl was not a sophisticated numismatist but he was a wonderful popularizer of the coin hobby and I doubt if anyone who began collecting coins in the era between WW1 and WW2 didn't own at least a few of his catalogs and/or do business with him from time to time. If I'm not mistaken, his old building is still located in downtown Ft. Worth.

Heritage Rare Coins, located in Dallas, is to the 21st century coin market as Mehl was to the market in the first half of the 20th century. The internet has surely been one of the major factors in the changing of numismatics in the last decade and no one has capitalized on the new web-based technologies more than Heritage.

At this point, the rare coin market is as close to a monopoly as it has ever been and I attribute this to Heritage making many very smart decisions in the last fifteen years and their competition conveniently making many dumb decisions. Heritage now completely dominates the American numismatic auction business and they have essentially eliminated their competition save for Stack's Bowers. It is hard to remember that as recently as a decade ago there were at least five thriving competitors in the coin auction business.

The brilliance of Heritage's marketing strategy was to realize before anyone else the impact that the internet would have on the coin market and how being transparent would create a more comfortable bidding and buying environment for collectors. So many of the things that we as a hobby take for granted now (safe online bidding, a database of coin prices and populations, high quality digital images, etc) were either pioneered or perfected by Heritage.

As I mentioned above, many of the greatest coin collections ever assembled have been formed in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area.

The first great local coin collection in the Metroplex was formed by Amon Carter Sr and his son Amon Carter Jr.  The bulk of this collection was sold at public auction by Stack's in January 1984. I didn't attend this sale but the story behind it, as I recall, was that the weather in New York was awful and that it was not as well-attended with out-of-town buyers as it should have been due to this. The Carter sale was one of the really great auctions of the era even though it is not as well-remembered as Norweb, Garrett, etc.

The best-remembered coin from this sale was the finest known 1794 silver dollar which is now believed to be the first example struck. But there were many great gold coins in the sale including very high quality Liberty Head double eagles (Proofs and business strikes) that would generate considerable interest today if offered for sale.

The next great Dallas collection is a name better-known to gold coin collectors: Harry W. Bass. The Bass collection, which was mostly sold in a series of four auctions conducted by Bowers and Merena between 1999 and 2001, contained the most comprehensive date and variety set of Liberty Head gold coins ever assembled.

Bass became a serious collector of U.S. gold in the early-to-mid 1960's. This was an era in which gold coins were plentiful, inexpensive and under-researched and through hard work and good connections with dealers (primarily Mike Brownlee, Stanley Kessleman, John Rowe and Julian Leidman) Bass put together a really remarkable collection.

I attended the Bass II, Bass III and Bass IV sales in New York in 1999 and 2000 and, even then, I think I was sufficiently aware of their significance. In some ways, these sales were the defining moment of the end of the old-school coin market; the point in time just before the internet took , when dealers still attended sales in person and when a gigantic event like Bass II (over 2,000 lots and with thousands and thousands of interesting individual and grouped coins) could be "carved up" by groups of dealers and dominated by six to eight buyers.

There are two currently active collections in Dallas/Ft. Worth that deserve mention and they are clearly among the five greatest American sets ever formed. The first is the Pogue family. This set is not all that well-known outside of the "inner circle" of dealers and collectors but it is incredible. The scope of the collection is Gem quality U.S. coins struck from the 1790's until around 1900 with an emphasis on Gem early silver and gold.

I have never had the good fortune to view this collection in its entirety but I have had the chance to view it in dribs and drabs. The Pogues got really serious about coins during the Eliasberg sale in October 1982 and they bought heavily out of what was arguably the greatest collection of U.S. gold ever formed. They continued to buy aggressively in the 1980's and 1990's with the guidance of David Akers, Larry Hanks and others. I have had to compete against the Pogues at a number of auctions and when they want a really great coin, needless to say that are formidable competitors. From what I know about this collection, it is the single greatest set of its type ever assembled and it is certainly the one set that I would pay to be able to view it.

The other great collection in located in Ft. Worth and it belongs to Bob Simpson, the current owner of the Texas Rangers baseball team and the former CEO of XTO Energy. Simpson is much newer to the market than the Pogues but he has assembled an amazing, comprehensive collection in less than a decade. To his credit, he has done this in a highly competitive environment in which information is more accessible than ever, few coins sell under the radar and the average "Simpson-esque" coin is far more expensive than in past decades.

Before I end this blog, it wouldn't be right not to mention a few more of the great dealers and collectors from the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Some of the dealers who I regard as major players in the market (past or present) include John Rowe, Mike Brownlee, Mike Follett and R.E. Wallace. You couldn't list four more different guys but each, in his own way, had an impact on the coin market that extended far beyond Dallas or Ft. Worth.

And no blog about Dallas/Ft. Worth numismatics could be complete without mentioning William Phillpot (a great paper money collector), R.E. Schermerhorn (one-time owner of an 1849-C Open Wreath gold dollar), John Murrell (owner of the greatest unknown collection of U.S. gold coins ever assembled) and others.

Se you at the show at Tables 217-219!

Guess Who's Back?

Between being sick for a week (and don't think I don't know who you are Mr. Boston Red Sox hoodie in seat 14C) and having web hiccups as the new site was introduced (how do you like it?) the raregoldcoins.com was not its usually chipper self for close to two weeks. But here we are in October and, as I write this, I feel better and I feel that we are going to have a great month. And I'm not even going to brag about the amazing Indian Summer we are having in Portland... So what's upcoming and why should you be as excited as I am? Well, for starters, the Clyde Collection of Charlotte half eagles is coming up for sale and it should be posted and ready to go on Wednesday October 3. There are a number of terrific coins in this set and some of the highlights include:

• 1838-C $5.00 graded VF35 by PCGS. A pleasing example of the most popular half eagle from this mint.
• 1843-C $5.00 graded AU55 by PCGS and approved by CAC.  Choice and original!
• 1844-C $5.00 graded AU58 by PCGS and approved by CAC. A superb example of this rarity.
• 1852-C $5.00 graded MS62 by PCGS. Lustrous and choice with great color.
• 1854-C $5.00 graded MS61 by PCGS. Very rare in this grade.
• 1860-C $5.00 graded AU58 by PCGS and approved by CAC. As nice an example as you are likely to find.
• 1861-C $5.00 graded AU53 by PCGS. Popular Civil War issue.

In addition to Clydestock, you can look forward to over a dozen interesting new coins that will be added to the site over the next few days.  Whether you collect early gold, branch mint gold, Proof gold or big, rare gold there will be something for you.

The only show I'm going to this month is the Fall ANA in Dallas. Having lived in Big D for many years, I'm looking forward to going back to the Ol' Stompin' Grounds and I hope to see many of the collectors in the Metroplex who I have done business with over the years. I will be sending you emails in the coming days about my table location, when I will be there and how you and I can get together toether to do a little business in Big D.

The spike in gold prices is starting to have an impact in the rare gold market. I have noticed increased demand for interesting coins in the last few weeks, especially in the ten dollar and twenty dollar denominations. Other areas that seem to be strong now include nearly all Civil War issues, traditionally scarce/rare coins and early gold with CAC approval.

If you collect Dahlonega gold, you'll be happy to know that I have finally finished my manuscript for the third edition of Gold Coins of the Dahlonega Mint, 1838-1861 and it is at the printers even as we speak. Its going to be a 225+ page epic chock full of great color photos and a huge improvement over the last edition (which was also way out-of-date, having been published back in 2003. I have some great projects I'm working on right now that involve my books, the website, apps and more and I urge you to check the site on a regular basis for updates.

Thanks for your patience the last few weeks and please feel free to contact me to let me know what we can do the website to make it even better.

Grade Distribution

There are essentially two types of rarity: absolute (a coin that is rare in all grades; an example of this would be an 1842-O half eagle) and conditional (a coin that is rare based mainly on grade; an example of this would be an MS63 1892-O eagle). What can we learn about rarity based on distribution--i.e., if the number of coins known for an issue is 300, in what grade range are these coins found? The answers are interesting. It is fairly obvious why a coin is an absolute rarity. Generally, the best reason for this is low mintage. Obviously, a Proof gold coin from the 1870's with a mintage of 25-35 is going to be rare; even if the survival rate is 50% or so, you are still not talking about many coins. But many issues have an uncommonly low survival rate to to heavy use in commerce and a high degree of meltings. Examples of this include No Motto half eagles and eagles from the Philadelphia mint. It is not uncommon for issues of these types to have fewer than a dozen known in Uncirculated even with original mintages of 200,000 to 500,000 or more coins. Let's use current PCGS population statistics to look at a specific example: the 1849 eagle; an issue with an original mintage that tops out at 653,618.

To date, a total of 361 1849 eagles have been graded by PCGS. The breakdown is as follows:

Mint State= 30 coins About Uncirculated= 128 coins Extremely Fine= 149 coins Very Fine and below= 54 coins

Breaking this down further, we see that around 8% of all 1849 eagles graded by PCGS are Uncirculated while close to 80% grade Extremely Fine and About Uncirculated. Given the fact that the Uncirculated numbers are inflated by resubmissions, the percentage of 1849 eagles that grade MS60 and above is probably less than 5%.

There are, of course, coins with high mintage figures that are actually quite rare due to excessive meltings. A good example of this is the 1819 half eagle. There were 51,723 of these made but nearly all were melted by 1834 due to a change in the weight of gold coins which made these old tenor issues worth more than face value. Today there are, at most, thirty known 1819 half eagles. And the grade distribution of this issue is bizarre with virtually every known example grading MS60 or better.

Why is this the case? In addition to the heavy meltings above, a little history will show that this type barely circulated at all. Five dollars was a lot of money in 1819 and since the half eagle was the largest denomination made in the United States, these coins were basically storehouses of value. For the entire Capped Head Left half eagle type of 1813-1829, only two or three dates are seen with any degree of frequency in circulated grades and only one (the 1813) is more readily available in circulated grades than in higher grades.

Remember the 1849 eagle that I just mentioned above? There are some coins that are almost exactly the opposite when it comes to grade distribution. There are, for example, many gold dollars from the 1880's that are virtually unknown in circulated grades but common in Uncirculated. Let's look at the 1886 as an example.

A total of 5,000 business strikes were made. The most current PCGS numbers show a total of 354 examples having been graded. Of these, 331 (or 93.5%) have been graded MS60 or better. In theory, an 1886 gold dollar in AU55 is rarer than one in MS65 (although, of course, the MS65 is still worth considerably more).

Why is this the case? A little basic research shows that, by the late 1870's, the gold dollar denomination had been made redundant by the new Morgan dollars. Mintages were small and the demand was even smaller. The gold dollars didn't circulate and there were enough dealers and hoarders saving them that Gems (MS65 and finer) are plentiful.

What this means is that the 1886 gold dollar is a coin that is much less rare than its low mintage would suggest and hundreds are known in high grades (PCGS alone has graded 61 in MS65 or higher). If you were to graph the grade distribution of this issue, it would skew well towards higher grades. If you were to graph the distribution of the 1849 eagle, it would skew towards lower grades with most survivors grading EF-AU and very few in the Uncirculated grades.

How To Become A Coin Kingpin

Deciding what to collect can often be a case of deciding what not to collect. This zen-like statement actually makes a lot of sense once you get over the initial "huh?" Let me explain. Anyone with a more-than-casual interest in coins wants to be a force within the series he collects. By this, I mean he wants to be known as "the CC half eagle guy," or "the face of the Ten Indian market." So how do you get to be "the man" or, better yet, "the kingpin" of the area that you have chosen to specialize in? I think the answers aren't necessarily as intuitive as you might think they are.

1. Suss Out the Competition: Let's say that you've decided to collect Carson City eagles in very high grade. You research the market and determine that these coins are very rare and even though they are expensive they seem within your budget. You still need to find out who your competition is and how far along they are.

Let's say that your major competition in this series is a Texas billionaire with a virtually insatiable demand for the finest known. And he still needs many coins in the set. In this case, you have a problem unless you, yourself, are a billionaire and you are content with knowing that every coin you purchase is probably going to break a record for the date/series. This is discouraging.

But let's say that your major competition--said Texas billionaire--is virtually complete with this particular series and he has shown that he isn't likely to upgrade his Carson City eagles unless they are very, very special coins. In this case, you might not be as discouraged.

Or, you can be creative and look at it this way...

2. Be Adaptable: Just because the series you want to collect has a roadblock like a super-wealthy collector at the top end of the market, this doesn't have to stop you. Instead of buying the finest known Dahlonega half eagles or Charlotte gold dollars, what about a "gem slider" set of choice, original AU58 coins? Or what about putting together a set that features pedigreed coins? Or a set with nicely matched colors? Or a "sharp strike set" in which every coin represents as sharp a strike as possible for a specific issue? The options can be nearly limitless.

3. Timing is Everything: I'm not a huge fan of Gem Saint Gaudens double eagles as I don't think that they necessarily offer the same degree of value as much rarer 19th century gold issues do. But they are currently a comparably good value because of a unique set of circumstances. As recently as five years ago, there were a number of wealthy collectors in this arena and many of them needed the same six or seven rare coins in order to finish their set. When any of these coins came up for sale, it was going to be a Clash of the Titans and a bidding war was certain to erupt.

But just like magic, nearly all of these collectors went poof at the same time. Some lost interest, some completed their set, and some were hurt by the Financial Meltdown of 2008 and had to sell their coins. What this means, a few years later, is that there is now an excellent opportunity for a new collector to become a Kingpin of Saints.

Let me give you two examples. In the Saint series, the 1921 is recognized as one of the ultimate condition rarities. In November 2005, a beautiful PCGS MS66 example sold at auction for $1,092,500. The same coin sold for $747,500 in January 2012. In September 2007, a PCGS MS65 example of this same date sold at auction for $1,012,000. In August 2012, another PCGS MS65 sold for $587,500. Why did these coins--both were very rare and all were very nice--sell for such discounts? Because the top of the Saint Gaudens double eagle market lacked the multiple buyers that it had in 2005 and in 2007. But if you add two or three big players into the mix, I can just about guarantee you that the next nice quality PCGS MS65 or MS66 1921 double eagle that is offered will sell at levels close to--if not at--previous market highs. It has happened before and it is inevitable that it will happen again.

4. It's All About the Relationships. Unless you are willing to devote almost all of your free time to studying about coins and pursuing what you need, you are going to have to establish a relationship with a dealer (or two) who is a well-connected specialist within your intended field of Kingpin-dom.

Let me give you a pertinent example. I recently handled an extremely rare No Motto New Orleans half eagle. This is a coin that I could have sold to a number of collectors. But I chose to sell it to a collector who has nurtured a close relationship with me over the years. He's a terrific guy; sophisticated, well-read on the subject of New Orleans gold, and always ready to buy an important coin that will improve his collection. Because he has been such a pleasure to deal with over the years he was able to purchase a coin which gave him a complete set of New Orleans half eagles in Uncirculated; quite possibly the first such set ever completed.

There's something else about our relationship, though, that transcends coins. A few years ago, someone very close to me was sick and needed immediate care. I called this collector for a reference and within a few minutes I was able to make an appointment with a specialist who was very difficult to see due to his busy schedule. Like I said, it's all about relationships...

5. What's Old is New Again. If you want to be the Kingpin of your series or collecting area(s) you can focus on coins that are traditionally obscure and lack collector interest as a result. Or you can focus on coins that have traditionally been popular but for some reason are currently out of favor. (And, yes, this point is fairly closely related to point #3, above).

For many years, Charlotte gold was as popular as Dahlonega gold and it was certainly far more popular than New Orleans. But Charlotte gold has become the least popular of the three southern branch mints. Lower prices and availability of some great coins in the past five to ten years have meant that at least one or two collectors could have put together fantastic, world-class set; and at comparably reasonable prices as well.

My point here is this: just like with the Gem rare date Saints that I discussed above, Charlotte gold is a proven area of the market with a good reference book and a long collecting history. Values peaked for these coins around 1999-2000 and, in some cases, Condition Census coins are selling for less than they were nearly a decade and a half ago. These seem to be a surer bet than something like high grade With Motto San Francisco eagles from the 1880's and 1890's that have never really been popular and possibly never will be.

What are some areas of the numismatic market in which it is still possible to be a kingpin? A few of my suggestions are as follows:

1. Gold Dollars: There are two or three collectors competing for finest known coins at the very top end of the market but this series offers a lot of opportunity for the kingpin-in-training.

2. Better Date San Francisco Gold Coins, 1854-1878: There are pockets of strength in this market but there is no one collector who I'd consider The Man when it comes to very high end SF gold.

3. Type Two Liberty Head Double Eagles: This is an area of the market that remains pretty calm after being in the spotlight for much of the 1990's and early 2000's. When really special coins become available (which is not all that often) they seem to bring considerably less than I think the are ultimately worth.

4. Indian Head Half Eagles: This is a series that tends to have periodic flares in popularity but then it grows dim for years. There is currently some rumbling in the higher end but The King of Five Indians seems to still be waiting to claim his crown.

Do you need help to become a Coin Kingpin? If so, please contact Doug Winter by email at dwn@ont.com.

Ten Things I Did at ANA: A Follow Up to "Ten Things I Want to Do at the 2012 ANA Show"

The last blog I wrote was about ten things I wanted to do at the then-upcoming 2012 Philadelphia ANA show. So did I fulfill my numiswishes? Yes and no. I didn't do everything I wanted but I got a lot done, including buying oodles and oodles of good coins. Let's compare what I did to what I wanted.

1. Meet a Mystery Guest. I didn't see anyone who made my jaw drop (at least at the show) but I did have a few cool table visits. I'd say the most interesting was a collector of branch mint gold who I had sold some great coins to about twenty years but who fell out of touch. Yes, the first question out of my mouth (after "How's the wife and kids?") was, "Do you still have your coins and would you like to sell?"

2. Attend the Battle Born Sale. For collectors of Carson City gold, the sale of the Battle Born collection was a highlight of this or any show. I did attend and it was an event. Prices ranged from kind of reasonable to nuts. I'm going to write a detailed coin-by-coin analysis in a week or so, after I am caught up with listing new coins, sending coins in for grading, making deposits, and the dozens of paperworky things that I have to do after any ANA.

3. Have Something Great Walk Up to the Table. At the last Philadelphia ANA, I met a collector who sold me some great coins and I have since spent over a million dollars with him, purchasing some amazing items. I had hoped that I would have something comparable walk up to the table this year but no luck. I asked other dealers if they had the little-old-lady-with a-box-of 1880's Proof Sets scenario that I hoped against hope for. No one said they did. But one dealer made a point that I thought bears repeating: the hotel buyers that have invaded nearly every city in the U.S. have made these sort of deals even more unlikely to find.

4. Wear Nice Clothes in Very, Very Humid Conditions. Every time I ask myself "why did I move to the Pacific Northwest," all I have to do is spend a summer week anywhere other than Portland. Virtually every day of the show saw 90+ degree weather with brutal humidity. I would have been sweaty even in my typical shorts and t-shirt summer garb; in a tie and jacket it was just brutal. My dry cleaner would likely give Big Ups to Philadelphia's weather but I was dying...

5. View Exhibits:. I'm embarrassed to admit that not only did I not view the exhibits, I don't think I even made it across the room. That's what happens when you work your fanny off for ten hours a day in a room that's about the size of a football stadium.

6. See the Barnes Collection. I went to the Barnes Museum on Monday and it was without a doubt the highlight of the trip. Utterly fantastic and a collection that has amazing lessons to collectors of everything, even coins. In fact, I am going to write an article soon about "what I learned from the Barnes collection." If you are ever close to Philadelphia I urge, urge, urge you to see this amazing museum!

7. Eat at Reading Market I did. Every day. Sometimes for breakfast and lunch. I ate Amish doughnuts. I ate Italian sammies. I had clams. I had pizza. I gained weight. But it kept me sane and kept me away from the convention for a few minutes every day. It was great.

8. Restocking Inventory. I wound up buying over 100 new coins and spent more than a million dollars. The first group of new purchases are up and listed on my website (www.raregoldcoins.com) and the next wave will hit in about a week. How was buying at the show? Brutally hard. It was a ton of work to find these coins but I am proud to offer some great fresh pieces in price ranges that go from cheap (around $1,000-1,500) to expensive ($25,000 and up).

9. Experience the ANA Buzz. Was it a great show? Yes and no. It was well-located, well-run, and massive. I'd go back to Philadelphia for another show although I much prefer New York or Boston for an eastern location. My biggest complaint was that it was too long. With the pre-show (and I could make a great argument for nuking it) and the regular show it was a very long week. I got so tired one night at the auction I actually had to go outside and get fresh air, fearing that I was about to have an out-of-body experience. ANA Week is clearly a marathon and, I'm afraid, I've become more of a middle distance kinda guy in my middle age.

10. Leaving the Show. I was supposed to leave the show on Friday but my flight was cancelled and I had to stay until mid-day on Saturday. It worked out just fine in the end but, yes, it was great to get home except for the fact that I have been working ten+ hour days since then catching up.

How was your ANA experience? Did you find what you were looking for? Contact me by email at dwn@ont.com and let me know.

Ten Things I'm Looking Forward to Doing/Seeing at the Philly ANA

The annual Summer ANA show is a highlight on any collector's or dealer's calendar. This is my 30th in a row to attend and I am very much looking forward to the show, especially as it appears to be the last ANA that will be held on the east coast for many years. Here's a list of at least ten things that I'm excited about doing and seeing next week in Philadelphia: 1. Having a Mystery Guest Sighting: Without fail, every year at ANA always brings out at least one "mystery guest." Typically, it's a dealer who left the market and have been unseen for years or it's a collector who I haven't seen since the late 1980's who has decided to wander in because he heard that the ANA show was close to his house. I wonder who it will be this year?

2. Attending the Battle Born Sale. I'm very interested in this sale for a number of reasons. I sold many of the coins to the owner and am curious to see how they do at auction. I am excited to go "head to head" with the sharpest rare date gold buyers in the business as we compete to buy coins for clients and for stock. In the not so distant past, it wasn't uncommon to have big specialized sales like this that all the big players attended in person. I'm hoping that during this sale I'm able to see who I am bidding against, and it will go a long way to answering my questions about the State of the Market for Carson City coinage.

3. Having Something Great Walk Up to My Table: Every dealer hopes this will happen at an ANA show: a well-dressed man walks up to the table with a run of 19th century proof sets that he wants to sell for his elderly parents or a little old lady walks up with an original roll of Saints. These things DO happen from time to time and the fact that we are in Philadelphia, the cradle of American numismatics, bodes well for something exciting walking into the show. So if you are reading this blog, great-grandson of James Longacre, please come to tables 805-807 first and ask for me by name!

4. Wearing Nice Clothes in the 95 Degree/100 % Humidity Philly Summer As excited as I am to spend a week in Philadelphia, I'm going to miss the nearly perfect summer we've had so far in the Northwest. It's been under 80 degrees nearly every day here and I haven't had the air conditioner on once. While I'd like to attend the ANA show in my typical Portland Summer Uniform of polo shirt, shorts and sneakers, I feel this wouldn't be appropriate and will, instead, be suited-up every day. Sigh...

5. Viewing the ANA Exhibits. One of my favorite things to do at the show every year is to take thirty minutes off and go view the competitive and non-competitive exhibits. I still am eager to learn about areas of numismatics I know little about, and to see great U.S. coins that I haven't viewed before. It is always fun for me to do this and I always learn which dealers are true coin weenies when I get a text(s) during the show telling me "you have to see (such and such) coin at the Smithsonian or ANS exhibit."

6. Going to The Barnes Museum. Is it wrong for me to admit that I'm actually more excited to see this art museum than I am to attend the coin show? If you have a teeny iota of interest in great 19th and 20th century art, you need to go.

7. Eating Breakfast and Lunch Every Day at Reading Market. Two words: Amish Breakfast. And I can already taste the Italian sammies I'll be chowing down on every day. Sure beats typical coin show food! (Let's not even begin to talk about Philly cheese steaks, South Philly noodles and gravy, the Belgian mussels and frites place I went to the last time I was in Philly, cheap and good Chinese food, etc. etc.)

8. Restocking My Depleted Inventory. Back in the day, I would save coins for the ANA show because June and July were typically dead months. Now, with the internet 24/7/365 having taken over all retail businesses, I typically go to ANA with very few fresh coins due to the fact that there is essentially no summer break for the coin market any more. I had an atypically busy July and am now in dire need to buy coins. As are, I would assume, most other dealers. That fact, combined with strong metals prices and a great east coast location, lead me to think that this year's show will be a very good to excellent one.

9. Experiencing the ANA Buzz. To use a sports metaphor, the ANA is the Super Bowl of coin shows. It's a whole lot more exciting for a dealer to be at the ANA for a week than its is to spend three days trapped in the purgatory of a slow regional show where you've realized within thirty minutes that there is nothing to buy but your airline wants $1,000+ to change to an earlier flight. (Note to self: continue to pay the change fees and chalk it up to mental health benefits...). Even though I've been doing this show for 30 years and it has becoming a bit of grind, it is still exciting for me every day to walk in, see the hundreds and hundreds of tables and wondering what will happen, good or bad, on this particular day.

10. Leaving the Show. As I hinted above, the ANA is a lot of work, especially when you are doing the majority of the buying/selling/bidding/schmoozing/running around/answering calls/scheduling...let's just say I stay busy pretty much every minute of the day from 8am until 10pm (or later on some of the big auction nights). I like the action and I love the up-side, but it is very tiring and I have to tell you that when my plane lands in Portland, I might be doing the Pope-kissing-the tarmac routine. Except for the fact that the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday after the show are all 12+ hour days...

See you in Philadelphia!

ANA (Mis) Adventures: 1982

As I get ready to head to Philadelphia for this year's ANA, I'm in a reflective mood. This is my 30th consecutive year of attending this show and my thoughts go back to my first ANA as a professional: Boston 1982. Let me set the scene for you. Although I had attended two ANA shows before (the hometown New York edition of 1976 and the New Orleans version in 1981), the 1982 ANA was my first show as a full-time professional numismatist. Bright-eyed and eager, I had recently moved to Dallas, TX to start work for Steve Ivy Rare Coins. My first task in Dallas was to help write the catalogs for the ANA auction; Steve Ivy Rare Coin Auctions had been awarded the official sale and put together a sale that, while not well-remembered today, was replete with amazing quality coins and numerous rarities.

What a lot of people forget about the coin market in 1982 is that it was dismal. After the amazing precious metals price run-ups in 1979 and 1980, the market crashed in 1981 and by 1982, you literally couldn't give coins away. More on that in a second...

Steve Ivy Rare Coins (which was to soon merge with Jim Halperin to form Heritage Rare Coins) was a great example of just how badly the coin market had been devastated. In 1979-1980, I believe that there were close to 200 people working at the firm. After the market tanked in 1981, most of the staff was let go. When I was hired, I think there were something like a dozen people on the staff. Amazing as it seems today, this small group of employees was tasked with the responsibility of putting together an ANA sale, selling the coins and collecting the money; not to mention the normal buying and selling associated with the show.

I vaguely remembered thinking that Steve would be relying very heavily on me at the show. I was certainly going to help with the auction and I assumed that he'd have me run around and buy coins for him.

Just before the convention began, I met with Steve and he gave me an idea of what my main goal for the show was. To say that my balloon was quickly deflated is an understatement. But let me set this Ego Affront up better so the punch line will make more sense...

As I mentioned above, the coin market in 1982 was appallingly bad. There were tons and tons of great coins around and, compared to the heady days of 1979 and 1980, prices were cheap; sometimes as low as thirty or forty cents on the dollar. The problem was that no one had any money or any confidence in the market.

But, there was, it turned out, one person who was buying coins. His name was Hugh Sconyers.

Hugh wasn't a real numismatist; he was involved in the investment world and he was known as being one of the smartest people to ever walk a bourse floor. He represented a group of investors who thought coins, in 1982, were cheap and he set out to buy millions of dollars of choice and rare United States pieces. His buying would peak at the Eliasberg sale in October 1982 where he spent millions of dollars on amazing coins.

I never really knew Hugh that well; just mostly by sight and by reputation. I was told his checks were good (no simple feat in 1982...), he was at the show solely to buy coins and this made him The Most Wanted Man at Boston ANA. There was a bit of a problem though. Hugh was a "personality buyer." What I mean by this is that Hugh bought coins mostly from people he knew and trusted. This meant that a number of dealers who would have given their first born child to have an hour with Hugh at the table buying their coins would never have the opportunity.

As soon as Steve Ivy found out about Hurricane Hugh, he called me over and gave me a new job at the show. The conversation, which lasted about thirty seconds, went like this:

Steve: I want you to stop whatever you are doing and follow Hugh Sconyers around the show and take notes about what he's buying. I want to know who he buys from, what he's buying, and how much he's paying. What are you waiting for? Go!

Me: Uh, OK.

So my first day at my first ANA show as a professional coin dealer went like this: I had a note pad and a pen and I followed Hugh from a distance. Let's say he stopped at Joe Flynn's table. I figured my job was to get just close enough that I could spy on Hugh and give a detailed report to Steve. So as Hugh was flipping through Flynn's double row boxes, I was at the next table pretending to look at coins out in the nearby case(s). Or something like that...

I think I did this for about thirty minutes until Hugh turned around and stared at me while he was at another dealer's table. He had to be thinking at this point: "who is this kid following me and what does he want?"

I don't remember how much longer I bird-dogged Sconyers or how my report to Steve Ivy went later that day. I do remember that something else came up within an hour or two that was even more potentially life-changing for the company and I was sent on my way to put out the fire.

Did Hugh ever come over to buy coins from Steve Ivy at the 1982 Boston ANA? I don't know the answer to that but I'd like to think he did. And I've got to think he was happy that the strange kid in the ill-fitting suit who was following him earlier in the show had disappeared.

David Akers: An Appreciation

My interest in United States gold coins began early and, as a result, Dave Akers was one of my first numismatic heroes. I somehow managed to scam my way onto the Paramount mailing list back in the early-to-mid 1970's and I can remember being enthralled with Akers' style of cataloging. He clearly knew his coins inside and out and the information that he was willing to share was inspiring for an aspiring gold coin specialist like myself. In later years, as I began to catalog and write myself, I freely "borrowed" from Dave. The first time I saw Dave in action was at the Stack's 1976 ANA sale. I had a few thousand dollars to spend and this was my first big-time auction to attend in person. I remember Dave buying some of the high end, esoteric 18th and 19th century gold pieces and thinking, "Someday, I want to be a big shot dealer who walks into an ANA auction, buys the four or five ultra-cool coins he really wants, and then gets up and leaves."

I opened my own coin business in 1985 after working for another firm for my first three years in the business. Around a month before the beginning of Auction '85 (the four-firm sale he did every year with RARCOA, Stack's and Superior) I called all four firms trying to get credit established so I could bid in the sale. Two of the firms never bothered to call me back and one offered me something like $5,000 credit if I left a kidney on deposit. But Dave called me back personally, talked to me for about ten minutes (telling me about some of the more interesting lots in the sale) and gave me a credit line at the sale that was around triple what I had hoped for.

Then, in 1986, I started working on my first coin book: The Gold Coins of the Charlotte Mint, 1838-1861. I asked Dave if he would look at the manuscript, which he did, and he gave me a tremendous amount of input. This made the book better and it inspired me to write other books. As always, I "borrowed" freely from Dave, especially in the format that I adapted.

Dave's books on United States gold coins were a tremendous inspiration to me and they actually served as a template for the way I built my company. Dave understood "branding" before this term even existed in the sense that we know it today and his books helped him create one of the best rare coin businesses ever established. To many collectors and dealers, Dave Akers WAS rare date U.S. gold.

As I became more successful, I got to know Dave better. We never really did that much business but he would come to make table at nearly every show and either hand me an incredibly cool coin or pull a piece or two from my case and proceed to tell me its pedigree and give me some insight into the significance of the issue.

Dave Akers knew more about United States gold coins than anyone I have ever met. I would have loved for him to have written more books or to have recorded what he knew onto video or audio. Dave was one of the last of the great scholar-dealers from the 1960's and 1970's, and with his passing we lose a lot of very valuable information about coins and the history of the market.

Dave's greatest success in the coin business and what he is likely to be remembered for was the cataloging and sale of the Pittman collection in the 1990's. This was a staggering amount of work and the catalogs that he produced rank as some of the greatest work in the history of numismatics; if not in any collectibles field. I was able to actively participate in both of the Pittman sales of U.S. coins and these are some of the most memorable moments for me in my entire numismatic career.

During the last few years, I became friendlier with Dave through our mutual friendship with Steve Duckor. I think Dave gave Steve--and all the collectors he worked with--the sort of training that no amount of time or money could replicate today. He shared his knowledge and his passion and helped Steve--and other collectors--build some of the finest sets of U.S. coins ever assembled.

I will miss Dave. I will miss seeing his displays of outrageous coins, I will miss his stories of the "old days" in the coin business and I will miss the kindness he had shown me for close to three decades. Dave, you were one of the all-time greats.