The NFL GM's Theory of Coin Buying

Is it possible that a strategy used by the General Manager of your favorite National Football League team can be applied to building your collection? This might not be as much of a stretch as you are, no doubt, thinking - and I invite you to read this blog and give my theory some thought. Have you ever wondered why some NFL teams select a linebacker in the first round of the draft even though they already have three excellent starters in their line-up and some good backups as well? What were they thinking? They were probably using the "draft the best available athlete" strategy and this can, in my opinion, be applied to your coin collection.

First, a little background is in order here. Some coin collectors have a very clearly defined focus to their set(s). They might collect something like Charlotte quarter eagles by date and they know exactly what they need to complete the set. But many other collectors are not this focused and I frequently get emails from collectors or calls from existing clients asking me "Doug, what set should I be focused on?"

The key word here is "focus" and I feel that focus is something that's very important for a new or advanced collector. Having a focus gives you a sense of purpose as a collector and allows you to see a beginning and an end of your endeavors.

But "focus" means one thing to one collector and another thing to another. Some collectors are exceptionally focused and are excited by the thought of collecting every known die variety and die state of 1798 half eagles; for others this would be torture. So how exactly can the "NFL theory" work for the collector who knows he needs some sort of direction to follow but who doesn't want to follow an overly-narrow course?

Remember what I said earlier about drafting the best available athlete? Well what if a collector's focus was the "best available coin?" This might mean that he wasn't buying a certain Charlotte quarter eagle because it fit into a date set but rather because it was scarce or had a great "crusty" look or it was low population (or a combination of all these factors).

Most collectors have laid some basic ground work for their collections. They might buy just gold coins, as opposed to coins in all metals. Taking this further, what if the collector then decides to specialize in gold coins struck between 1800 and 1900? There are a number of things this collector can now decide to become more focused without becoming too much of a specialist. Some examples might include the following:

-Buying coins priced between $2,500 and $5,000 -Buying coins with a certain sort of "look" -Buying coins with original mintages of less than 10,000 -Buying coins that are in the top 10% of all those graded for the date -Buying coins from branch mints -Buying coins not from branch mints

Its my belief that too many collectors worry about being over-specialized and that, in order to deal with DWN they have to be specialists. This isn't the case.

Coin collecting should be about buying what interests you and what makes sense for your budget. I know of many collectors who are, in a loose sense of the word "specialists" but not in the traditional sense.

Two Cool Proof Civil War Gold Dollars Sold by DWN

Douglas Winter Numismatics recently sold two very rare and very beautiful Proof gold dollars from the Civil War era. These were an 1862 graded Proof-64 Deep Cameo by PCGS, and an 1864 graded Proof-66 Deep Cameo by PCGS. Both coins had also been approved by CAC. I'd like to share some information about these pieces with you and discuss very rare but comparatively affordable Proof gold from this era as well.

The rarity of Proof 1862 gold dollars is not widely recognized, probably due to the fact that business strikes are very common and were minted to the tune of 1.36 million pieces. Proofs are another story with just 35 coins struck for collectors. On the PCGS website, it states that "between 18 and 25 are known," but this number seems high to me given the typical survival rate for small-size gold proofs of this era. I believe that the number known is more likely in the area of 15 to 18, with the average piece grading PR64 to PR65.

As of the end of October 2011, PCGS has graded a total of 17 Proof 1862 gold dollars. This includes seven in PR65 and two in PR66 with no adjectival modifier(s), as well as two in PR64 Deep Cameo and two in PR65 Deep Cameo. NGC has also graded 17 Proofs for this date. Included in this number are four in PR65 and two in PR66 with no modifiers, as well as two in PR66 Ultra Cameo and a single coin in PR67* Ultra Cameo. I believe that these numbers are significantly inflated by resubmissions, especially in PR65.

The finest known Proof 1862 gold dollar is clearly the NGC PR67* Ultra Cameo that was last sold as Scotsman 10/08: 790 ($51,750). It was earlier ex Eliasberg: 50 and it is one of the nicer Proof gold dollars of this era that I have ever seen.

A number of Proof issues of this denomination are challenging to distinguish between Proof and business strike manufacture. This is not the case with the earlier Type Three Proofs. Business strikes from the 1856-1872 era tend to seldom come with the deep, reflective surfaces that are seen on the 1872-1889 issues and these early Type Three Proofs have an overall "look" that is totally different from business strikes of this era.

The 1862 dollar that is illustrated above is a choice enough coin for the grade that I think it merits a paragraph or two to discuss why it is "only" a PR64.

While not necessarily clear on the image, there are a few very light hairlines on the obverse that very narrowly preclude a PR65 grade. How hairlined can a Proof gold coin be to still garner a PR65 grade?

Back in the early days of PCGS and NGC, the grading services were extremely strict when grading Proof gold. A coin with any signs of friction or hairlines (even hairlines that were not from past cleanings) was automatically knocked out of the Gem level and this meant that larger denomination Proofs (specifically eagles and double eagles) were almost never seen in PR65 and were essentially unknown above this.

In today's market, a Proof gold coin can have a few very light hairlines and still grade PR65. But in order to garner a PR66 or higher grade, a coin has to be exceptional. And what about lintmarks or other mint-made features on the surfaces? Lintmarks (which are cause by polishing the blank planchets before striking in order to attain a highly reflective surface) are generally overlooked in the grading process unless they are extensive or they are situated in extremely obvious focal points such as the cheek of Liberty or exposed in the left obverse field.

In 1864, mintages of Proof gold coins actually increased to 50 pieces. Given the severe economic climate of the war-ravaged country, this seems like wishful thinking on the part of the U.S. Mint, and it is likely that at least some of these coins went unsold and were melted.

PCGS estimates that "17 to 22 examples survive." As with many of their estimates, I find them a bit on the high side. My guess for total number known is around 14 to 18, and this is based on the fact that there are only 12 auction appearances for Proof 1864 gold dollars dating back to the early 1990's.

The 1864 gold dollar is rarer than than the 1862 in high grades with at least a few pieces known in the PR62 to PR63 range. It is extremely rare in Gem, and there appear to be around four or five known that grade PR65 and higher grades.

As of the end of October 2011, PCGS had graded seven in all. The best non-cameo was a single PR66, while the best Deep Cameo was the PR66 DC shown above. NGC shows a very inflated population of 16 in all grades. The single highest graded was a PR67 Cameo. They have also graded two in PR66 Ultra Cameo.

The aforementioned NGC PR67 Cameo has never appeared at auction and I have not seen it. The record price at auction is $32,200, set by Heritage 10/11: 4625, which sold for $32,200. This is the exact coin shown above. I bought it for a client in an NGC PR66 Ultra Cameo holder, crossed it to a PCGS PR66 Deep Cameo holder, and received approval at CAC.

This coin has terrific overall eye appeal with deep, reflective fields that are strongly contrasted by the devices. There are a few very small lintmarks (as made), but no hairlines.

It is interesting to note that the collector I purchased this coin for has been working on an 1864 gold proof set for a number of years. The gold dollar was the last coin he needed and the set is now complete. I find this to be a real endorsement of the rarity of the 1864 gold dollar in Proof; given that this collector was able to find the rare (and expensive) eagle and double eagle of this year before he could locate the humble (and more affordable) gold dollar.

Which brings us to the final topic of this blog: it has been said again and again that Proof gold is the "caviar" of American numismatics. There is no question about the fact that Proof gold is an expensive area to collect and that specializing in this area of the market is ambitious, to say the least.

But within the area of Proof Gold, there are pockets of value. I have always liked the smaller-size (dollar and quarter eagle) issues with mintages of 50 or fewer in PR63 to PR65 grades. As an example, the 1862 dollar that I discussed above was a beautiful PCGS PR64 Deep Cameo example with CAC approval. Without knowing the market, would you care to venture a guess of this coin's value? $20,000? $30,000? More?

Surprisingly, I listed and sold this coin in the mid-teens.

Say a collector had a budget of $30,000-40,000 to spend each year on Proof gold. Would he be better off buying a few relatively common coins in exceptional grades (an example of such a piece would be a 1902 quarter eagle in PR67 cameo) or a few very rare coins in choice but not as spectacular grades?

Being someone whose numismatic decisions are typically based around rarity, I'd go with two very rare low mintage coins in the $20,000 range as opposed to one more common but spectacular coin in the $40,000 range. The exception would be if I were putting together a type set of Proof gold and I needed just a single example of each type. Then, I would tend to go with a coin like an 1886 gold dollar in PR66 as opposed to, say, an 1866 gold dollar in PR64.

Do you have questions about Proof gold? Feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com and I would be happy to answer them for you.

Rare Liberty Head Quarter Eagles in the Heritage October 2011 Sale: An Analysis

In their recent October 2011 Pittsburgh auction, Heritage Auctions sold a comprehensive collection of Liberty Head quarter eagles. This collection contained many of the rarities in this series and I'd like to take this time to analyze the coins themselves and the results that they garnered. One of the rarest collectible Liberty Head quarter eagles is the 1841. It has now been decided with near-certainty that this issue, formerly believed to have been Proof-only, was struck in both Proof and business strike formats.

I am of the opinion that the 1841 quarter eagle is still an undervalued coin. There are fewer than 20 known, and it is clearly among the rarest individual dates in this series. If the Liberty Head quarter eagle series were to become more collected by date, I could see a nice example in the PR50 to PR60 range range having a base value of $250,000+, given what other less rare U.S. gold coins are currently selling for.

It was hard to determine if the 1841 in the Heritage sale (graded PR55 by NGC) was a business strike or a Proof, as it had been fairly harshly cleaned at one time and most of the original surface had been stripped away. I actually thought the coin might have been a Proof but would need to see the coin out of its holder to be more certain.

This coin sold for $132,250 including the buyer's premium. I thought that this was a reasonably strong price, considering that the coin was really not attractive. The last example to sell was Heritage 7/09: 1230, graded NGC PR58, which was considerably nicer.

There were some interesting Dahlonega quarter eagles in the sale. The most interesting was a really nice 1854-D graded MS63 by PCGS. It is the second finest known of around five or so in Uncirculated, and this is a date that is scarce in all grades with an original mintage of just 1,760.

This exact coin had appeared in Heritage's June 2004 Long Beach sale (as Lot 6200, in a PCGS MS62 holder) where it brought $34,500. It then appeared as Bowers and Merena 3/10: 3623, in a PCGS MS63 holder, where it sold for $63,250.

I was bidding on this coin in the Heritage sale for a client and before the sale began, I estimated that it would bring around $50,000-55,000. Shortly before the sale began, I realized that this range was too low and I raised my bid accordingly.

I wound-up being the underbidder on the coin, and it sold for a record-setting $86,250. The previous high for this date was $80,500, set by the Duke's Creek: 1511 coin (which I purchased), graded MS64 by NGC and the finest known.

The Heritage sale showed me that the market for very high quality Dahlonega quarter eagles is quite strong. But the market is also very discerning and more sophisticated than in the past. An 1844-D quarter eagle in NGC MS63 was impressive if you look at the numeric grade assigned the coin, but it was softly struck and over-graded in my opinion. It sold for just $18,400; a far cry from the $30,800 it had brought back in May 1998 when it sold raw in the Pittman auction.

I also thought that the nicer New Orleans quarter eagles in the sale did well. A sharply struck 1840-O graded MS62 by PCGS realized $17,250, a softly struck but fresh-looking 1846-O in an NGC MS64 holder was bid to $23,500 and a decent quality but not especially choice 1847-O in PCGS MS63 brought $14,950.

Another major rarity in the collection was a PCGS VF35 1854-S. This coin has the distinction of being the rarest regular issue Liberty Head quarter eagle with an estimated 12-15 survivors. Unlike other very rare issues, the 1854-S is nearly always seen in low grades with only one known in AU (an NGC AU53 that is ex Bass II; 472) and two or three in EF.

I spoke with a number of knowledgeable dealers about the 1854-S in the sale and the reaction was mixed. Nearly everyone agreed that the coin wasn't attractive, and that if it weren't a rarity like an 1854-S quarter eagle it might not have been graded by PCGS. But I think they are missing an important point: very rare coins have always been given certainly allowances by collectors and dealers alike, and in the world of 1854-S quarter eagles, this coin was better than most.

The coin in the October 2011 Heritage sale brought $253,000. This is almost exactly what I expected it to bring.

A damaged "no grade" 1854-S in the Stack's Bowers 2011 ANA sale had just brought $201,250, which meant that the coin in the Heritage sale was a shoo-in to sell for more than this. The best comparable result for an 1854-S was the Heritage 2009 ANA: 224 coin, graded VF35* by NGC, which was sold for $253,000.

If the Heritage 10/11: 4692 coin had been a nicer piece for the grade and still in a PCGS holder holder, I think it would have sold for over $300,000. Its scratched surfaces and lack of overall eye appeal held back the final price realized but, as I said, above this is such a rare coin that eye appeal is not as big a factor as on more common issues.

That said, the NGC EF45 Lee coin (ANR 9/05: 1128) that I purchased six years ago for $253,000 is now looking like a very, very good value.

One final rarity in the sale that I though was interesting was Lot 4716: an 1864 graded AU58 by NGC. For years, the 1864 was perhaps the single major "sleeper" issue in the Liberty Head quarter eagle series. Only 2,824 were made, and business strikes are extremely rare with fewer than three dozen known.

I didn't like the coin in the Heritage sale. In fact, I thought it was an Impaired Proof that had been misidentified as a rarer business strike. The coin brought $40,250 which I thought was a pretty lackluster result, given that Heritage had sold another NGC AU58 for $46,000 as Lot 5333 in their April 2011 auction.

Their were a few other things I noticed about the sale. The first was that the CAC coins typically brought significant premiums over the non-CAC coins. The coins that had CAC stickers were generally nicer than their non-CAC counterparts, and assuming that Heritage sent all the coins to CAC, it wasn't hard to figure which coins were the "best." There were exceptions to this. The aforementioned 1854-D, which should have been stickered as it was really a nice coin, did fantastically and some of the rarities mentioned above (1841 and 1854-S) did just fine without them.

But there some examples of coins in this collection whose value was greatly improved by the presence of a CAC sticker. I'll give you a few examples. Lot 4714 was an 1862-S graded AU58 by PCGS and approved by PCGS. This coin sold for $8,625. In their October 2010 sale, Heritage sold the same date in the same grade but without a CAC sticker for $6,900.

Another strong CAC-generated price was realized by Lot 4715, an 1863-S graded AU58 by NGC. It sold for $9,775. Compare this to the $6,900 that Heritage 12/10: 4325 brought (it was non-CAC stickered) and you'll see the value of the "green bean" to certain buyers.

My overall take on the sale was it did well but was not a "run-away." There were some coins that flew under the radar but very few bargains were to be had. The coins that appeared to sell for low prices weren't very nice. What I found surprising what that some of the coins that were nice but which were "hard sells" seemed to do just fine, even though there are not all that many end-users for them.

Where the %$#@ Are All the High Grade Dahlonega Half Eagles?

As I was reviewing my notes on Dahlonega half eagles this morning, I was struck by something very interesting as I updated Condition Census information: many dates haven't had a significant example sold in three, five or even eight years. This, in turn, made me ask out loud where the (naughty word) are all the high grade Dahlonega half eagles? Hence, the topic of this blog. Of the three primary denominations struck at the Dahlonega mint, half eagles are the most popular with collectors. It is easy to see why. The coins are comparatively large, the series is reasonably short and there are no impossible rarities to stop the collector of average means from attempting to complete a set.

As you might expect, even the common date Liberty Head half eagles from Dahlonega are rare in legitimate Uncirculated grades. If you discount the marginally Mint State coins that pop-up and the few higher grade common dates that have been available, the pool of available coins sold during the last few years has been shallow, at best.

Let's look at a few dates.

The 1841-D half eagle is a rare coin in high grades. There are around a dozen known in Uncirculated. Given that number of coins--and given the fact that this isn't an incredibly popular or numismatically significant issue--this would make you think that higher grade 1841-D half eagles should be available from time. Is this true?

Looking back at auction records from the past few years, the last high grade 1841-D to sell was Heritage 6/11: 4626. Graded MS63 by NGC (and approved by CAC) it brought $27,600. To find another high grade 1841-D (not including a few marginal MS61's and an S.S. New York example graded MS61) you have to go back to the Heritage 2008 ANA: 1965, also graded MS63 by NGC, that sold for a reasonable $18,400. And before this, you need to go back another three years to the Bowers and Merena 12/05: 2685, ex Bowers and Merena 1/05: 1554 coin, graded MS63 by NGC, that sold each time for $25,300.

And what if you only bought PCGS coins? How long has it been since a nice PCGS 1841-D half eagle was sold at auction? You'd have to go all the way back to the Green Pond: 1041 coin sold by Heritage in the 2004 FUN auction for $32,200. That's closing in on eight years (!)

Let's look at another date: the 1849-D. There are fewer than a dozen examples in Uncirculated and if you discount the marginal MS60 and MS61 pieces, the number of possible coins a high grade collector could pursue is around five or six.

The last significant 1849-D half eagle to sell at auction was the Bowers and Merena 2/08: 2544 coin, graded MS62 by PCGS, that sold for $24,150. Before this, there were two PCGS MS62 sales in 2004. Three coins in five years seems like a decent amount of availability UNTIL you do a little research and figure out that the 2004 appearances were the same coin and this piece was reoffered in 2008.

Here is one last example: the 1855-D half eagle. This is a tougher date than the 1841-D and 1849-D in higher grades, but it still isn't recognized as a rarity. There are around six or seven in Uncirculated.

There was a flurry of activity for this issue in high grades around 2004-2005. In fact, there were four auction trades for high grade pieces (three in PCGS MS63 and one in MS64) between the 2004 FUN show and the 2005 Summer ANA. That should have been a great opportunity for collectors, right?

Well, not really. You see, all four records are for the same coin and in the final appearance (Heritage 2005 ANA: 10356, at $38,813) the coin had now upgraded to MS64 (and lost its lovely original color in the process, but that's another story...)

But I digress. This blog isn't about coins re-appearing at auction. Its about coins not appearing for sale with much frequency.

So why don't nice Dahlonega half eagles show up for sale more regularly? I have a few suggestions as to why this is the case.

1. With few exceptions, really "new" Dahlonega half eagles are rarer than you think. You can throw-out the numbers in the population reports (especially NGC) as there are many resubmissions of these coins in Mint State. There isn't a single Dahlonega half eagle that isn't truly rare in MS63 and above and most are very rare even in properly graded MS61 and MS62.

2. The few nice coins that exist are in strong hands. The downward trend in the economy since 2008 hasn't brought more than a handful of significant Dahlonega half eagles onto the market. Clearly, these coins are owned by serious collectors who don't plan on owning their coins for a few years and then "flopping" them. And, surprisingly, this appears to be the case for both date and type collectors.

3. No great collections of Dahlonega half eagles have hit the market in at least five years. In fact, unless I'm forgetting something, the last really great collection to hit the market was Green Pond in January 2004. Contrast this with the prior seven to eight years, when you had James Stack, Milas, Pittman, Bass, North Georgia, Chestatee, Miller and others. Looking back at 1995-2003, this was probably the single most fertile time in the history of numismatics for advanced collectors of Dahlonega. Since 2004, we've seen almost nothing in terms of specialized collections.

(Oops. I am forgetting something: the Duke's Creek collection sale in 2006. But this was only dollars and quarters eagles, not half eagles. So my point #3 is still valid, at least as far as half eagles is concerned.)

4. As the supply of great coins has dried up, the number of avid collectors has increased. I can't think of any time that there was more serious collectors of Dahlonega half eagles than there is now. Clearly, the supply is not nearly enough to meet the current demand.

5. Dahlonega gold is one area where the auction companies haven't completely dominated the market since the mid-2000's. I've sold via private treaty considerably more high quality Dahlonega gold coins than what has appeared at auction. But in the case of half eagles graded MS62 and above, this is still isn't a ton of coins.

6. As I've stated countless times, the price reporting mechanism for rare date gold coins is broken and needs to be fixed. In most cases, published prices for higher grade Dahlonega half eagles are down since 2004 despite what most experts believe to be a strong(er) market. This is partly due to certain schlocky, overgraded coins dragging down levels on specific issues and partly due to published references being unable to keep up with the market.

I don't think we're likely to see many changes in the Dahlonega half eagle market, at least not if prices stay unrealistically low. There aren't a lot of good coins around to begin with and I see no hugely compelling reason(s) right now for owners of such coins to sell them.

So what do you do if you are a collector who is specializing in high grade Dahlonega half eagles? Be patient; the right coins will turn up sooner or later. And when they do, be prepared to pay up for them.

Do you have more questions about Dahlonega half eagles? If so, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com.

Grade Distribution of 19th Century Branch Mint Gold Coins

For many 19th century gold issues, it is as important to know the grade distribution as it is the overall rate of survival. In this blog, let's look at grade distribution; namely how the surviving examples of a specific issue are distributed along the lines of grade. It is natural to believe that for the typical mid-19th century issue grade distribution, if plotted on a graph, would resemble a bell curve. If, say, 100 examples of a specific issue are known, it is likely that few survivors would be in very low grades (i.e. VF and below) and few would be in high grades (i.e., Mint State), with most clustered in the middle grades (i.e., EF and AU). To some extent this is true but there are a number of scenarios that can make the grade distribution skew more towards the low end or the high end.

Grade distribution can cluster towards the low end for a number of reasons. One has to do with the need for coins in a particular geographic region. The gold coins from Carson City were eagerly received by citizens of the western states from 1870 through 1874 due to a pressing need. As an example, nearly every known 1873-CC half eagle and eagle grade Extremely Fine or below, indicating that these were issues that saw considerable use in circulation.

There are other issues that tend to be found in lower grades due to heavy use in circulation. These include the Charlotte and Dahlonega quarter eagles and half eagles from the first few years that these mints were open (1838 to around 1843), San Francisco half eagles and eagles from the late 1850's through the mid-1860's and New Orleans half eagles and eagles from the mid to late 1850's.

You will note that all of the issues that I have mentioned so far tend to be medium to larger sized; they don't include gold dollars, quarter eagles and double eagles. For various reasons, these denominations do not necessarily show the same grade distribution pattern as do their larger-sized counterparts from the same era.

Grade distribution tends to be a size-related phenomenon. Because of their size, Double Eagles did not to circulate as much as half eagles or eagles and because of their intrinsic value they were melted to a greater extent in later years. With the exception of certain rare dates like the 1854-O and 1856-O, most double eagles of the Type One design are seldom found in grades below EF.

The same is true with gold dollars. Because of their small size, the likelihood of a gold dollar circulating all the way down to the VF grade range is improbable.

Let's go back to two issues I mentioned above and look at their grade distribution.

The 1873-CC half eagle is an issue that saw heavy circulation in the local economy and, as a result, is typically seen in low grades. PCGS has graded a total of 65 examples of which only 7 (or a shade over 10%) grade above AU50.

Now compare this to the 1893-CC half eagle, a more common issue but one that saw very little circulation in the local economy. PCGS has graded a total of 364 in all grades of which a whopping 283 (or over 80%) grade AU50 or better.

This situation also exists for the 1873-CC eagle. PCGS has graded a total of 52 of which just 14 are considered high grade coins (i.e., AU50 and above). Compare this to the 1881-CC eagle, an issue that saw little local circulaton and is now often repatriated in groups from Europe. This date has a a total population at PCGS of 264 with 137 of them, or more than 50%, in high grades.

Certain rare date 19th century gold coins have a grade distribution that makes sense because of very low original mintage figures. As an example, well-known rarities such as the 1864 quarter eagle, 1875 half eagle and eagle and 1883-O eagle are very rare in higher grade because they have tiny original mintage figures. The likelihood of a coin surviving in higher grades with an original mintage of 100 or 200 (the 1875 eagle and half eagle, respectively) is, obviously, very slim.

But mintage figures alone do not act as a predictor of a coin's rarity. There are certain later 19th century issues, such as the Three Dollar gold pieces from the 1880's, that have very low mintage figures but high survival rates. These issues were saved by collectors, dealers and speculators when they were struck and not only do they exist in far greater percentages than their counterparts from the 1860's and early 1870's, but in higher average grades as well.

What about low mintage issues that are more available in high grades than expected due to hoards? A good example of this is the 1857-D quarter eagle. With a mintage of just 2,364 you would expect this to be a rare coin in all grades. Most Dahlonega quarter eagles have a survival rate of around 3% of the original mintage. This is not the case with the 1857-D.

According to the most recent PCGS population figures, a total of 67 have been graded. Of these, no less than 57 have been graded AU or higher. How can we explain this anomaly?

If you are a student of Dahlonega quarter eagles, you are aware of the fact that most 1857-D quarter eagles (at least the ones that are original) have a similar look: softly struck, very frosty and toned in a rich yellow-gold hue. This similarity in appearance suggests that a hoard of 1857-D quarter eagles existed at one time and has been dispersed.

The grade distribution of an issue can change quickly due to hoards. A great example is the 1857-S double eagle. At one time, this issue was typically seen in EF and AU grades and was actually quite scarce in Uncirculated. But after thousands of high grade examples were located in the S.S. Central America treasure, the grade distribution of this date changed radically. Now, the 1857-S double eagle is seen more often in higher grades than it is in lower grades. The result of this was a radical compression of value. In MS62 or MS63, this date is only worth around three times more than it is in AU55 to AU58. Prior to the discovery of thousands of Uncirculated examples, this ratio was more like ten to one.

I believe that it is important for the student of United States gold coinage to study the grade distribution. By learning how rare a specific coin is in higher grades, the collector can identify the best values in the area(s) in which he collects. Because of third-party grading certification data, this is better possible than ever before.

Some Interesting New Coins That DWN Has Recently Sold

Unless you check my site regularly, there are probably some interesting pieces that fall though the cracks. They might be very rare and very desirable, but they often sell so quickly that if you don't check the website every day, chances are good that you will miss them. The common theme here is the half eagle denomination, and the coins that I have sold in the last 30 days that I think are worthy of closer examination are: a 1799 Small Stars in PCGS MS62 (with CAC approval); an 1827 graded MS62 by PCGS (and approved by CAC); an 1871 graded MS61 by PCGS and approved by CAC; and an 1874 graded MS62 by PCGS which wasn't sent to CAC, but which would almost certainly being approved if it was.

Let's take a look at each coin, learn a bit about each, and discuss what makes each of these coins so special.

This coin was one of my favorite purchases at the Chicago ANA and it was obtained in a private treaty sale with a leading wholesaler who, to be honest, I don't generally do that much business with. But I saw this coin in his case, immediately fell in love with it, and bought it for what I thought was a fair price.

The 1799 is among my favorite 18th century half eagles. It has a reported mintage of 7,451 but I think this figure is a bit on the low side and some coins dated 1799 were struck in 1800 and later. The probable mintage figure is more likely in the 10,000-12,500 range but this is still a scarce issue in all grades.

For variety collectors, the 1799 is a very interesting year with no less than nine varieties known. Most show small stars on the reverse. The variety illustrated here is BD-2, which has an estimated surviving population of fewer than 50 in all grades.

As a date, the 1799 is scarce but it becomes quite rare in Uncirculated. This coin was the first 1799 in PCGS MS62 to be made available to collectors since ANR 11/09: 3667 (which sold for $43,700 and was slabbed by PCGS). The only finer example to sell in the last five years is Heritage 5/07: 2278, graded MS63 by PCGS, that brought $63,250.

As you can see from the photo, this 1799 half eagle is a really attractive coin with semi-prooflike fields covered with splashes of reddish-gold and orange color. It is well struck, well-made, and high-end with just a few marks in the obverse fields keeping it from a higher grade.

I purchased this 1827 half eagle via private treaty at the Chicago ANA convention. It came from a good supplier of mine and, as far as I can tell, it is fresh to the market.

While 24,913 half eagles were produced in 1827, virtually all were melted by 1834 when the intrinsic value of the Capped Head Left type exceeded the actual face value. As a rule, the half eagle from the 1820's and early 1830's are very rare, and the 1827 is no exception with an estimated three dozen or so pieces known to exist.

Nearly every 1827 half eagle that exists is in Uncirculated due to the fact that this issue saw virtually no commercial use. The few that weren't melted were saved and eventually came into the possession of collectors. There are a few really superb examples known including an NGC MS66 that sold for $322,000 in the Stack's 2008 January auction.

For the grade, this 1827 half eagle is extremely pleasing. As always, the luster is a blend of prooflike reflectiveness and satiny texture. The detail is very sharp and the only noticeable mark on the coin is a small, curving line on Liberty's face that is as made.

After all these years of specializing in rare US gold coins, I still get a thrill from Fat Head half eagles like this and I was pleased to sell this 1827 in MS62 to an advanced collector who appreciated its beauty and rarity.

This next coin is an 1871 half eagle graded MS61 by PCGS and given CAC approval.

The 1871 is a scarce and under-appreciated date. There were only 3,200 examples struck and well under 100 are known with most in the EF40 to AU50 range. This date is characterized by heavily abraded surfaces and the marks on most of the known examples are amplified by semi-prooflike reflectiveness.

There are two examples of this date graded MS61 by PCGS and none finer; NGC has graded three in MS61 with none better. The present example is the only Uncirculated 1871 half eagle that has been approved by CAC and it shows wonderful natural orange-gold color atop frosty, lightly abraded surfaces. The other PCGS MS61 last sold as Heritage 7/06: 11559 where it brought $10,063; there have been four NGC auction records for MS61 coins since August of 1996 with prices ranging from a low of $8,625 to a high of $9,488.

I purchased this coin from another dealer at the recent Long Beach show and was pleased to place it with a collector who is working on a set of high quality Liberty Head half eagles. It is quite possible that this piece is the single finest known 1871 half eagle.

The last of the four interesting half eagles that I have sold recently is an 1874 graded MS62 by PCGS. This coin was never sent to CAC for approval, but I imagine it would garner a sticker as it is extremely choice for the grade with lovely color and choice, frosty surfaces.

As with the 1871, this date is overlooked by most non-specialists. Only 3,488 were struck and well under 100 exist in all grades. The 1874 is probably just a hair more available in Uncirculated than the 1871. I believe that there are as many as three or four Uncirculated 1874 half eagles known as compared to two or three (at most) of the 1871.

As I stated above, this coin was graded MS62 by PCGS and it had a wonderful appearance. The only example I know of that is finer is a PCGS MS63 that is ex Heritage 11/06: 2229 (at $20,700) and was earlier Bass II: 1194 (at $20,125).

I was fortunate to handle these four great half eagles in August and early September 2011. If these are the sort of coins that you collect and you were either not aware of them or we are not currently doing business, please feel free to email me at dwn@ont.com and we can discuss your collecting goals.

Back From The Dead: Formerly Unpopular Gold Coins That Have Become Popular

As recently as five years ago, most of the rare date gold coins that I sold were from the Southern branch mints; pieces from Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans. But today, these coins make up a smaller percentage of my inventory and my sales. I now find myself making a market in coins that I formerly considered very difficult--if not impossible--to sell. What are these "back from the dead" coins and why are they suddenly popular? The Poster Children for impossible-to-sell rare date gold coins used to be expensive Philadelphia and San Francisco issues from the late 1850's, 1860's and early 1870's. These coins have now garnered a small but growing following. After years of being unsalable they can now find homes BUT only if they a) are choice for the grade and have good eye appeal (CAC verification helps) b) are larger denomination coins (a half eagle or larger) and c) are either low mintage issues or are from the Civil War era.

I was going to add one more point: relating to price. But the more that I think about it, the more I realize that the "right" coin of this type doesn't necessarily have to be affordable (i.e., below $10,000). In fact, I can now sell $25,000 or $50,000 coins that I regarded as formerly illiquid if they have one thing going for them.

And that's rarity.

Let me give you an example of what I'm talking about. A few weeks ago, I bought an 1874 half eagle in PCGS MS62. It was a great coin: fundamentally rare, beautiful, and very low population. A few years ago, this is a coin that I would have passed on by rationalizing that "it was cool but how could I possibly sell it?" But I took a chance on it because it was a coin that I thought "if I was a collector, I'd want this coin in my collection."

Within three hours of posting the coin on my website, I had four serious inquiries about it. Two of the inquiries were from collectors who are working on sets of Liberty Head half eagles. But the other two were from collectors who liked the concept of this coin. It wasn't cheap (around $15,000). But it was the second or third finest known of probably no more than five or six that exist in Uncirculated and it was a coin that is actually pretty rare in all grades. In comparison to Southern branch mint, a coin like this nice Uncirculated 1874 half eagle suddenly seems like a heckuva deal.

So why are coins like this becoming more popular?

I have a few theories. Here are a few of them.

1. Trends Has Come Down. In the past, Trends was too high on some of these coins. Certain Trends values have come down, in some cases substantially, making these coins look like better values at the new, lower numbers.

2. Rarity Is In Vogue. For a number of reasons, new collectors are more attracted to really rare coins than common coins in uncommon grades. A coin like, say, an 1862 half eagle or an 1863 eagle is really rare in any grade and this appeals to this new, sophisticated breed of collector/investor.

3. Half Eagles and Eagles Are Being Collected by Date. Both the Liberty Head half eagle and eagle series are now being seriously collected by date. This makes certain formerly unpopular semi-key issues (I'll throw out one as an example: the 1876-S half eagle) more popular if the coin is right.

4. Auction Prices Are Nutty. When you see auction prices like an 1875 eagle in PCGS AU53+ for $345,000 this drives the market. It suddenly becomes a lot easier to sell an 1862 eagle in nice AU55.

5. Collectors Crave Value. "Value" is the new mantra of the coin market. Collectors seek coins that have price levels that make sense. The factors that I listed above combine to make coins like 1864 half eagles or 1867-S half eagles seem like good deals.

6. Not All These Coins Have Been Ruined. Something that has hurt the Southern gold market is the relative unavailability of choice, original coins. Certain P+S mint issues have been spared the processing/doctoring that has beseiged C+D gold due to their relative obscurity.

So does this mean that I am done with Southern branch mint coins and, from now on, want to be known as Mr. P Mint half eagle? Certainly not; I love Southern coins and will continue to specialize in them. But I do note a renewed interest in non-Southern coins and I think that this is excellent for the overall health of the rare date gold coin market.

Coinapedia Update

One of the truly great features on the DWN website (www.raregoldcoins.com) is the Coinapedia. Many collectors now use this site as a reference--some even daily--but others aren't familiar with it. The reason that I started the Coinapedia project last year was simple: I don't think there is enough high quality non-commercial information available for the collector of United States gold coins. So I decided to create an online coin encyclopedia that would, eventually, feature pictures and descriptions of nearly every issue of United States gold coin produced between 1795 and 1933.

Here's the catch: the coins that are pictured are ones that I have sold within the last two or three years. Instead of just cutting and pasting images from various websites and online resources, I wanted to use the talents of my assistant Jenna Van Valen, whose work is the best in the coin industry. I wanted the images to not only be good but to be consistent.

The descriptions of the coins are taken from the descriptions on my site when they were listed for sale. But I've tried to take out all commercial references and focus on the "meat." This makes Coinapedia a real on-line reference, not just fluff for my firm.

So where do we stand with Coinapedia as of the end of the Summer of 2011?

Gold Dollars are a strong area on the site with no less than 52 different images and descriptions. I anticipate that most of the branch mint gold dollars will be present within the next year or so. The common dates from the 1880's might actually be the last coins added as I rarely handle these.

There are now 95 images and descriptions of quarter eagles on Coinapedia, and I would expect that by the end of the year we will have well over a hundred different issues included.

Three Dollar gold pieces, despite being a favorite series of mine, are probably the weakest part of the Coinapedia site right now. There are just 30 issues represented. I hope to be up over 50 by the Spring of 2012.

By far the strongest part of the site are the half eagles with no less than 145 (!) images and descriptions included to date. While this denomination will, obviously, never be complete (I doubt that I will be handling an 1854-S any time soon...) it is, nonetheless, the best on-line reference for this denomination that currently exists.

The eagle denomination is shaping up nicely with 84 different issues currently included in Coinapedia. I expect this to become a very strong area of the site as eagles are a series that I actively buy and sell. There will be one area of weakness: the common With Motto issues from 1880 to 1907 aren't likely to be included as I seldom--if ever--handle these.

Given the fact that I am one of the leading market makers in double eagles, I expected there to be more than 76 issues represented by this time. The problem with this denomination is that many of the better double eagles that I buy get shipped out to buyers so quickly they never make it onto Jenna's camera stand for imaging. I promise to slow the process down a little bit and to make certain more of the prized Liberty Head double eagles that come through DWN are imaged for future reference!

I hope you will give the Coinapedia a try and see if you don't think its an invaluable reference. I would love your input about it and welcome emails to me at dwn@ont.com.

Was This 1875 $10.00 Worth $345,000?

With more than $75 million dollars in rare coins having sold at the pre-ANA and ANA auctions, it is inevitable that some amazing individual pieces might have been lost in the shuffle. One coin that hasn't received much publicity is the 1875 eagle in the Stack's-Bowers sale (lot 7732 and graded AU-53+ by PCGS) that brought $345,000.

As far as I know, this is by far a record price for the 1875 eagle at auction, and I believe it is also an all-time record price for any business strike Liberty Head eagle.

Was this coin a good value?

When I first saw that this coin was reserved at $300,000 (meaning that you had to bid at least this amount, plus the 15% buyers premium) I was pretty aghast. This exact coin, then graded AU53 by NGC, had last sold for $41,400 in the Heritage 2001 ANA and the last auction trade of relevance was $74,750 for an NGC AU55 in the DLRC Richmond I sale of July 2004. My initial reaction was, "this coin will never sell and the consignor is being unrealistic."

But A LOT has changed in the coin market since 2001 and 2004. For one, the formerly-unpopular Liberty Head eagle series has become a collector favorite. I have written in the past that it only takes a small number of wealthy, passionate collectors to turn a formerly-overlooked series into one that is "hot." And this is exactly what has happened with Ten Libs. In a few minutes I made a quick 180 degree turn from "it will never sell" to "hmmm...it might actually sell."

Before we discuss the market for the 1875 eagle, I think its a good idea to talk a little about the issue itself.

With a mintage of just 100 business strikes, the 1875 is the undisputed key to the series. I believe that fewer than ten business strikes are known. Most of the 1875 eagles, like the one is the Stack's-Bowers sale, aren't especially attractive. This date tends to come with heavily abraded surfaces and since all the known examples are prooflike, these marks tend to be magnified. And this is further compounded by the fact that most 1875 eagles have been cleaned or dipped and do not have nice, warm color.

Here's another way of thinking about this issue. Let's say there are actually nine business strikes known. Of these nine, at least six or seven are off the market in tightly-held collections. This suddenly leaves us with maybe two or three examples that might be for sale. Of these two or three, at least one is going to be a coin that even by the standards of this date is going to be ugly enough that a wealthy collector will not want to use it to fill a hole in his set. That leaves serious collectors of Liberty Head eagles with very few chances to purchase the "right" coin.

Which is why this 1875 was being sold at a perfect time.

There were a few others factors working in this coin's favor. For one, it was in a PCGS holder and any of the Registry Set collectors thinking about this coin would have preferred it to its previous NGC holder. Secondly, it was a "+" coin, meaning that the graders thought it was above-average quality for the grade. I'd have to agree with them. For an 1875 eagle in AU53 it was actually a decent coin (though certainly not a "pretty" one in the true sense of the word) and I don't think the grade was pushed because of the Great Rarity factor.

The major factor was timing. Selling it at the ANA was a good decision and there was the X factor of wealthy collectors looking for places to put their money in these uncertain times.

But I think the numismatic significance of this sale is not fully appreciated by many dealers and collectors.

Only recently, circulated rare date 19th century gold coins were popular issues but they were never really the "big buck" coins that 18th and 20th century issues--typically in high grades--were. Until recently, the rap on coins like the 1875 eagle were that although they were really rare, collectors weren't sophisticated enough to pay huge premiums for rarity over condition. There were exceptions to this maxim (the 1854-O, 1856-O and 1870-CC double eagles, for starters) but these exceptions were almost always big, popular coins like double eagles.

I think the argument for rarity over condition grew louder a few years ago when coins like the 1854-S quarter eagle began to sell for $250,000+ in EF grades.

You can make the case that the 1875 eagle is a "better" coin than the 1854-S quarter eagle for a number of reasons. Firstly, its rarer. There are as many as 15 examples of the latter known and many are in wretched condition. Secondly, the 1854-S is a smaller coin, size-wise, and, as we all know, size does matter when it comes to value. Thirdly, the Liberty Head eagle series is probably more popular with collectors at this point in time than the quarter eagles of this design.

Coincidentally, in the same Stack's-Bowers sale there was a no-grade example of the 1854-S. It wasn't a "sort-of" no-grade; it was a total, absolute no-grade, and it still brought $201,250.

Using this sale as a measuring stick, I think the 1875 eagle was good value.

If that's not a compelling enough argument for the 1875 eagle, then how about this? In the Stack's-Bowers sale there was a Proof 1975-S "No S" Dime that sold for $345,000. It is (currently) a major modern rarity with just two known and its the first one ever to come up for sale.

But its a frickin' Roosevelt Dime...and a coin that half the dealers at the ANA (myself included) probably wouldn't have been "smart" enough to have paid $25,000 for if it had walked up to our table(s).

Using that sale as a measuring stick, the 1875 eagle might have been more than a good deal; it might have been a great one.

I remember talking to David hall a few years ago about the 1875 eagle. He was still collecting this series and he hadn't yet purchased this date. I remember him asking me what I thought he'd have to pay for one (I think I said around $100,000 at the time) and I remember him, presciently, asking me, "Why isn't this a half a million dollar coin?"

His question seemed sort of goofy then. It seems really smart now.