Some Recent Observations From A Coin Show Perspective

Having just come from the Philadelphia Whitman Coin Expo show and, the week before this, the Long Beach show, I feel pretty qualified to make some market observations. Without further ado, I'd like to share them with you. 1. There Are Too Many Coin Shows Right Now. I'm sure I'm not going to make any friends with coin show promoters for saying this but with Long Beach occurring last week, Philly this week and the St. Louis show next week, this is too many coin shows in a short period of time. I saw few fresh coins in Philadelphia because I looked at many dealer's coins in Long Beach and the thought of turning around next week and going to St. Louis...uh, no thanks. The market just can't support this many shows and this is why you are seeing many formerly good regional three and four day events beginning to die rapid deaths.

2. Buying Nice Coins Is Tough, Tough, Tough. If you thought it was hard two or three years ago to buy nice coins at shows, it is as tough now as its ever been; maybe tougher. I've heard dealers all of all sizes and shapes complain how hard it is to find interesting fresh material at recent shows. I was lucky and I had an amazing ANA show with lots and lots of great new coins to offer DWN clients. But it is a real grind to find coins now and, clearly, the good stuff is going off the market and staying there.

3. Everyone Wants to Buy Type One Double Eagles. There are many firms and individual dealers (myself included) who are very active buyers right now of Type One double eagles. At the Philadelphia show I saw almost nothing for sale other than the usual motley assortment of Uncirculated S.S. Central America 1857-S , a few lower grade common dates and the odd overpriced rarity here and there. This is clearly an extremely popular area of the market and coins in the $2,000-15,000+ price range are exceptionally popular right now.

4. And CC Double Eagles Too. You can add $2,000-10,000+ Carson City double eagles to this list as well. They are most definitely in strong demand and if the coins are properly priced (or even just a hair too expensive) they are easy sellers. Even big money coins like 1870-CC double eagles are beginning to sell again and I am aware of at least two EF examples changing hands since ANA. If you have any nice CC double eagles for sale, please contact me as I'd like to buy them from you!

5. Nice New Orleans Gold Has Disappeared. Where has all the nice New Orleans gold gone? Good question. The last few months have seen very, very few interesting New Orleans gold coins available and the few choice or rare pieces that I have had in stock have sold quickly. Clearly, this is an area of the market that is very active.

6. And Dahlonega Gold Also. I think you can safely add choice, original Dahlonega gold in all denominations to the "where the heck are the coins?" list. I can generally only find two or three decent D mint coins at a major show and they seem to sell very quickly when I list them on my website.

7. Coin Pricing Is a Total Disaster. I've mentioned this a number of times but I am finding it more and more of a hassle that coin pricing is such out of touch with reality. What typically happens is that one very low quality rare coin trades cheaply at auction and Trends whacks the price for the issue down. This has recently happened with rare, desirable coins like the 1796 No Stars and 1808 quarter eagles and the 1795 eagle. I look at this as, in its own way, as big a concern in the coin market as the doctoring issue. One reason why good coins aren't being sold is that pricing doesn't reflect the real value of choice, high end pieces. Fix this problem and you will fix the lack of supply that is hurting the market right now. Don't fix it and new buyers will be more interested in purchasing MS64 Saints than "real" coins.

8. I'm Not Seeing Many PCGS "Secure" or "Plus" Coins. Either the new PCGS Secure and Plus program isn't working or its working so incredibly well that the coins in these holders never make it to the market, But I am not seeing many of these coins and I continue to feel that CAC has really set the pace in the high end segment of the market. It remains hard to price PCGS Plus and Secure coins when so few trade at auctions or at shows.

9. The Birth of the "Lucky Charms" Grade. I wish I was clever enough to have invented this term but, alas, I'm not. But I recently have seen coins graded "AU58+*CAC" and these pieces with all the attached symbols and stickers are now known as "Lucky Charms" coins because they seem to have imported their verbiage from the shapes found in this cereal. Magically delicious, no?

Some Further Thoughts on Carson City Double Eagles

I've been working on a third edition of my book on Carson City gold coins. For some odd reason, I've been working from back to front, meaning that I've done the new research of double eagles before following this with eagles and half eagles. I've been able to uncover some really eye-opening new information on the rarity and price levels of Carson City double eagles and I'd like to share a few tidbits. The last Carson City book that I produced was published in 2001, so almost a full decade has passed. My first impression about the market for Carson City double eagles is that it has become far, far more active than ever. Prices have risen significantly since 2001, especially for rarities and for high grade pieces.

In 2001, the five rarest Carson City double eagles in terms of overall rarity (i.e., total known) were the 1870-CC, 1891-CC, 1871-CC, 1878-CC and 1879-CC (these last two issues were tied for fourth rarest). In 2010, the five rarest Carson City double eagles in terms of overall rarity are the 1870-CC, 1871-CC, 1891-CC, 1879-CC and 1885-CC (these last two issues were tied for fourth rarest).

The 1870-CC has remained an extremely rare coin, despite a surprisingly high frequency of auction appearance in the middle part of this decade. I had previously thought 35-45 were known. Today, I think that number is around 40-50. This includes a number of low grade coins and at least five or six that are either damaged or cleaned to the point that can not be graded by PCGS or NGC.

The rarity of the 1891-CC seems to have diminished quite a bit. I think there are two reasons for this. The first is that I overestimated its rarity in 2001. The second is that a significant number of examples have been found in Europe and other overseas sources. This date hasn't become plentiful in higher grades but it is far more available in AU50 to AU55 than I ever remember it being before.

The 1871-CC seems more available as well. In 2001, this issue was very hard to find in any grade and it was almost never seen above AU50. Today it is more available and the number of coins graded AU53 to AU55 has risen dramatically. I would attribute much of this to gradeflation as the majority of the 1871-CC double eagles that I see in AU53 and AU55 holders are "enthusiastically" graded, to say the least. In properly graded Mint State, the 1871-CC remains exceedingly rare.

A date whose rarity has become more apparent is the 1885-CC. In the 2001 edition of my book, this date was not even listed in the top six rarest Carson City double eagles. I now rank it as being tied for fourth along with the 1879-CC.

Everyone loves a sleeper, right? The dates that I believe are underrated (and undervalued) in the Carson City double eagle series include the 1872-CC, 1877-CC, 1882-CC and 1892-CC.

In higher grades (AU50 and above), the rarity scale of the Carson City double eagle series has remained remarkably consistent. In 2001, I stated that the 1870-CC, 1871-CC, 1879-CC, 1878-CC, 1891-CC and 1872-CC were, in that order, the six rarest issues. In 2010, I believe the six rarest are the 1870-CC, 1871-CC, 1878-CC, 1879-CC, 1872-CC and 1891-CC. In other words, the same six dates are still the keys in higher grades but there are now some minor changes in the order.

How much more available have high grade Carson City double eagles become since 2001? In some instances, population figures have doubled or even tripled. This tends to be primarily in the MS61 and MS62 range and I think there are a few good reasons for this. The first is gradeflation. Some coins that were nice, high end AU55 to AU58 pieces in 2001 are now MS61 or even MS62 by today's more liberal standards. The second is resubmissions of existing coins. For many Carson City double eagles there is a significant price increase from MS61 to MS62 and submitters may send in a high end coin many, many times in attempt to get a higher grade. The third reason is that some very impressive coins have been found in Europe since 2001. I know that I have been able to buy dozens of fresh-to-the-market Uncirculated CC double eagles that trace their origins to overseas sources and I would imagine that other dealers have handled numerous choice, fresh Mint State pieces as well.

If you purchased Carson City double eagles in 2001 and have held them since, you have done very nicely. Obviously, one of the main reasons for this is the fact that gold has gone from around $400 to close to $1300 in the past decade. I can remember buying common date CC Twenties in lower grades (VF and EF) in the early part of this decade for $750 or so. Today, the basal value of any CC double eagle is around $1,750-2,000.

Prices of high grades coins are interesting to study. One date that I looked at carefully was the 1893-CC, mainly because it is more available in MS63 than any other CC double eagle. In 2001, you could buy an 1893-CC in MS63 for around $10,000-12,000. In 2005-2006, the same coin would have probably cost you between $15,000 and $20,000. Today, if you can find an 1893-CC in MS63 it will run in the $25,000-30,000 range and a really choice PCGS example with a CAC sticker might even bring $35,000.

I'll continue to tease you with updates on my Carson City book in the coming months and I'm hoping that it will be ready for publication sometime in the Spring of 2011.

Five Things You Can Do to Make Your Coins Worth More

If you have been collecting rare coins for more than a few years, there is a good chance that you have "found money" in your holdings. What I mean by this is that there are a number of things that you can do--often with little or no cost--that can significantly improve the appearance and value of your coins. Here are five suggestions: 1. Send Your Coins to CAC. CAC is now well established as an important factor in the high-end segment of the market. In certain areas, CAC coins trade for a nice premium and there is no doubt in my mind that a CAC sticker makes a coin more marketable. Submitting a coin to CAC is very inexpensive; typically just $10 to $20 per item. Another thing that's nice about submitting coins to CAC is that you are getting an expert's opinion (in this case John Albanese) for next to nothing. You might try sending a sample of your five best coins to CAC. If you get CAC approval on all five coins, you know you are doing something right. If only one or two get the coveted "green bean" then you can assume that the dealer you are buying from needs to be replaced.

2. Attribute Your Coins. Let's say that you are a date collector of early half eagles. It makes sense to purchase the Bass-Dannreuther book on early gold to attribute all your coins to "BD" numbers. You might get lucky and find that one of the coins that you own is a very rare die variety. This isn't necessarily an immediate financial upgrade, as it would be in a series like Bust half dollars or Large cents which are avidly collected by variety. But wouldn't you rather keep the potential financial upgrade for yourself than to read on page three of Coin World how some lucky collector just cherry-picked an excessively rare variety of 1806 half eagle? Also, if PCGS or NGC attributes varieties in the series you collect and you find a good variety, have it marked on the slab.

3. Pedigree Your Coins. If you have a coin from a famous collection like Bass, Garrett, Eliasberg or Norweb, a pedigree can add value. Some coins from these collection are clearly marked on the PCGS or NGC insert. But there are hundreds of others that have "lost" their pedigree for one reason or another. I'd suggest that you purchase all of the major auction catalogs in the area that you specialize in and spend a few hours searching through them. Your coin(s) may have a different appearance than they did in an earlier sale, but if they have an obvious mark this will make it easy to trace them. If a great pedigree is easy to prove, send the coin along with a xerox of the catalog page to PCGS or NGC.

4. Reslab Your Coins. Please note that I didn't say "regrade" your coins. That's another subject entirely and one that, if you have coins in old green label or "fatty" holders, I do not necessarily think will add value to your coins. What I mean by "reslabbing" is that many coins are in holders that show severe scuffing, wear, or dullness. A great coin can look just so-so if the holder it's in doesn't present itself well. I know this sounds a little hokey but its no different than deep-cleaning your house when you get ready to sell it. If all of your coins are in pretty, fresh slabs it is going to make your coins look nicer.

5. Create a "Cult of Personality." For a number of reasons, there are many collectors who become larger than life because of what they collect. Some of these individuals become famous because they buy seven figure coins. Others become famous because they write books or articles about the area(s) that they specialize in. And others become famous because they are "mensches" who endear themselves to collectors and dealers alike. A collector who has worked hard to establish himself as a leading authority on Charlotte gold coins is probably going to have an easier time selling his coins than a collector who is totally unknown; even if the mensch has inferior coins, the belief that he has high quality will typically outweigh the reality. The same holds true for collectors on the PCGS and NGC Message Boards. Creating the illusion of collecting greatness is a lot easier today than it was in the pre-Internet era.

These are just five suggestions. There are many others that I can think of, and I'd be interested in hearing your suggestions as well.

What Does "On Hold" Mean on Your Website?

I was asked this seemingly innocuous question by a client the other day and it made me pause. Even though many coins are listed as "on hold" on my website, there are actually a number of potential scenarios that could more accurately describe them. These deserve a brief explanation and an end-of-the-blog realization (I hope) that just because a coin marked on hold it doesn't mean that you shouldn't inquire about it. In most instances, a coin is marked "on hold" because it has been ordered by an existing client and sent out to him on an approval basis. Generally, the status of such a coin will change quickly as I tend to ship coins out the same day they have been ordered by overnight delivery. If a coin on approval is sent out, say, on a Tuesday, I might known its atatus as early as Wednesday or Thursday.

However, I do not mark such a coin as being "sold" until it is paid for. If I trust a client enough to send him a $5,000 coin on approval, I trust him enough to pay me in good funds for it. That said odd things do happen from time to time and it is not impossible for a coin that I thought was sold on Thursday to become available again on Friday.

If a coin is sold to a client and he requests extended payments, the coin is taken off the website. This way, coins won't sit and fester with an endless "on hold" status. I update my website constantly and as soon as I know the exact status of a coin, it is marked as such.

There are times when another dealer or a collector will ask for a coin on my site to be put on hold for a pre-determined period of time while he tries to sell it or, in the case of a collector, he makes a decision. In most instances, this decision-making period is 24 to 48 hours. I don't think its fair for a coin to be tied-up longer than this and I do not generally allow for this to happen.

In a case where a coin is "on hold" while being considered, I will typically tell the second person who calls that they have second shot should the deal fall through. This doesn't happen often but it does happen enough that I would strongly urge you to request second shot on a coin you want even if it is already marked as being on hold.

The "on hold" process might be slowed down by a few factors. If the potential buyer of a coin wants it sent to CAC for approval or to PCGS for a crossover this will add time to the process. I don't want to take such a coin off my website as it is still not technically sold but, to be fair to the buyer I might attempt to get the coin stickered or crossed. Or, there might be a situation where the coin was shipped to a collector on Monday but he is out of town on business for a few days, slowing down the process.

Sometimes I will have a coin on my site marked as "sold." There are a few reasons for this. The first is thast, after selling a rare or important coin, I kind of like to brag a little bit. I might leave it up as being sold for a few days just to show people looking through my coins that I am capable of selling major coins. Plus, it feels good for me to browse my coins and see a few "solds" here and there.

I'm in the business of selling coins, so I want as many people as possible to feel confident about the entire buying process at DWN. I know collectors get frustrated when they go on my website and see many of the coins marked "on hold." I'd like to think that this is because I sell really nice coins and that there are a lot of people looking for the quality that I specialize in. Because I run a small, boutique coin business, I don't have salespeople who will manage want lists or send out emails with specific coins you may (or may not) be looking for. My feeling is that by maintaining and frequently updating a high-quality website, I am giving everyone an equal chance of purchasing coins with character.

Please remember that a coin marked as "on hold" could become available but if I don't know that you have an interest in it, it will never be offered to you directly. Just send me at email at dwn@ont.com or phone me at (214) 675-9897 when you see a coin on my site that is of interest. I will give you as much information about its availability as I can and, who knows, it might be sitting on your desk in a few days!

Tips on Selling Your Coins Via Dealer Consignment

Many retail dealers, myself included, welcome consignments from collectors. It's a great way to increase the size of a dealer's inventory without laying out cash and it is often an excellent source for dealers to place useful, fresh attractive coins to new or existing clients. As a potential consignor, what are some of the questions you should be asking a dealer and what are some of the expectations you should have? 1. What rate should you be paying a dealer? I can't speak for every dealer, so I'll share this from a DWN perspective. I generally charge between 5 and 10% to sell a coin on consignment. I've heard of dealers charging more than 10% and that seems a bit on the gouge-y side. On the other hand, to expect a dealer to sell your coins for less than 5% is unreasonable unless you are talking about a very low spread item like bullion or generics (which probably shouldn't be consigned to dealers in the first place).

2. What should my expectations be as a consignor? Obviously, your first expectation is for the coin to sell. But there should be other expectations as well. You should expect a dealer to work hard at selling your coins. This means listing them promptly on his website, imaging them, giving them good descriptions and offering them directly (via phone or email) to existing clients. You should expect clear, concise paperwork from the dealer including a receipt stating the terms and conditions of the consignment. You should expect prompt payment with good funds. And you should expect honesty and integrity. No games, no "funny stuff."

3. What sort of payment terms should I expect? There is no set answer to this so, once again, I'll share with you how I take care of payment. First of all, I am very careful to sell consigned coins to collectors or dealers who I know will pay me. There are certain dealers, for instance, whose check I absolutely will not take. I wouldn't sell these guys any of my own coins so why would I subject a collector to the risk of "will I or won't I get paid?" I generally pay clients for coins within a few days of being paid myself; a few days usually meaning two or three. In the case of having multiple coins on consignment from one collector, I pay them as they sell. I never wait until the end of a deal to pay the consignor and I don't think that's fair, unless that's what the consignor requests.

4. How long should the consigning process take? This depends on the coins that your are consigning. If you have very esoteric coins, the consignment process is going to take a while (in this case maybe three months or so). If you have very liquid coins, the process should be short (in this case just a few weeks). I would suggest that you ask the dealer how long that you think it will take him to sell each coin in the consignment. You don't want to let the consignment process go on forever. If your coins are appearing on a dealer's website they will be "stale" after a few months and will be very hard to sell in the near future should you decide to put them in auction or with another dealer.

5. How should I price the coins I am consigning? It is important to price your coins realistically or they are not likely to sell. Some dealers will take any coin that you offer them at any price. Other dealers, myself included, will probably pass on coins that are not priced in line with the current market. I would suggest you price your coins the same way that I do: look to see if there are recent comparables at auction and use these as a base line. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. An extremely rare coin, a coin in an old green label PCGS holder or something that is currently very "hot" might deserve premium pricing. As a seller, you need to ask yourself, how badly do you want to move your coin(s)? If you price a $5,000 coin at $8,000 it is likely to taint it and potential buyers may be skeptical when the price is suddenly--and dramatically--reduced.

6. What about consigning special collections? Over the years I have had a number of in-depth specialized collections consigned to me for sale. For these collections, I've created special "websites within my website" that feature these coins and they are not intermixed with my regular inventory. I would suggest that you request this when selling. It is smart marketing, it should help to sell your coins and it's a nice, lasting memorial for your collection that you can keep record of. If the dealer you are using to sell your coins is web-oriented and he is incapable of providing this service, I'd suggest you question whether he is the right person to sell the coins. If the dealer is just going to sell them wholesale, then this process is, of course, not needed.

7. What should you not expect? Just as you should have expectations of what to expect from the dealer you select, there are a few things you should not expect. One of these is for the dealer to have an obligation to tell you who your coins were sold to. You certainly have every right to tell the dealer not to sell your crusty original coins to an "upgrader" who is likely to strip and ruin them. You probably shouldn't expect daily updates on how your consignment is doing but it isn't asking too much of your dealer to hear, from time to time, how the consignment is faring.

8. How should I choose the dealer I consign to? If you've made it this far, you are probably waiting for the answers to this important question. I'd say the two most important things to consider are the relationship you already have with the dealer and his ability to understand (and get good prices) for your coins. If you have been dealing exclusively or semi-exclusively with a dealer for a few years and you like/trust this person it seems obvious to select him to sell your coins. The second point seems obvious but is worth reiterating. I think my firm is a great choice to sell branch mint gold or early gold but I'd be a poor person to sell a high grade set of Buffalo Nickels. I could probably do a decent job of presenting Buffalo Nickels but I don't know the series well and have zero clients for these coins. In this increasingly specialized market, it makes sense to choose someone who is a specialist himself, providing that you have a collection with a reasonably specific focus.

I think dealer consignments are a good way to sell your high quality, rare United States coins. Hopefully this short blog answered a few questions. If you have more, please feel free to contact me via email at dwn@ont.com

Set Premiums: Fact or Fiction?

One of the things that new collectors are often told is that if they build a set, the collective value of the coins will be greater than the individual value when it is time to sell. Is this correct or is it just clever marketing hype? I believe that the answer to this question is yes, no and maybe. Let's take a random example of a set--Charlotte quarter eagles--and look at instances where there would or would not be a premium factor established upon completion.

There is, in theory, a clear-cut instance of when a set of Charlotte quarter eagles would gain value if it were complete. This would occur if all the coins were very high high grade and the set would be almost impossible to duplicate at any price. But what if the coins themselves are not as impressive as the plastic they reside in? I have seen sets of Charlotte quarter eagles in which all the coins were accorded very high grades by PCGS and NGC but the coins themselves were unimpressive; some were recolored while others were puttied. Among well-informed collectors of Charlotte quarter eagles there are high grade sets that are famous for having great coins and there are sets that are (in)famous for having coins that are "maxed out" and unappealing despite impressive grades.

A set of Charlotte quarter eagles might not have to be high grade to be impressive and to gain value on a completed basis. I have seen sets where all of the coins were "only" in the EF to AU range but the individual coins were gorgeous with matched natural color, nice surfaces and strikes and strong overall eye appeal. In this instance, I think a set could gain as much as 10-15% premium. The reason it would gain value is that a potential buyer would realize that in today's market--where most Charlotte quarter eagles are stripped-n-dipped--the opportunity to acquire high quality coins is rare; and the opportunity to acquire a complete set of them is even more rare.

An instance where a "maybe" answer might have to be given is with a clearly mixed quality set. I know of a few sets of Charlotte quarter eagles where the quality is wildly uneven. There might be a common date in EF45 which isn't very nice alongside a rare date in MS63 that is spectacular. This lends itself to a sort of numismatic version of "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" Would you pay a premium for a set that had some great coins but which you knew that you would be forced to do significant upgrades on others? I think the answer has to be made on a case-by-case basis. If the highlights off the set were enough to offset the low-lights than I think a premium factor would be in order; just maybe not the 10-15% that I mentioned above.

There are other instances where I think that a set premium would be in order. I would pay a healthy premium for a set that all the coins had good pedigrees (not necessarily famous pedigrees but they may have come from good retail dealers or not-so-famous auctions that have a high regard among specialists). I would pay a premium for a set of coins that were original. And I would probably pay a premium for a set of early gold coins in which each piece was better produced than usual.

Here's the rub on set premiums. Most collectors enjoy the thrill of the hunt and putting together a set. But the concept of long-time collecting has becoming somewhat antiquated in the Internet age and today's faster-paced lifestyle has shortened the attention span of everyone; even middle-aged coin collectors. Not everyone has the patience to wait five or ten years to assemble a nice set of Extremely Fine Charlotte quarter eagles. The chance to knock out the whole set with one punch is appealing to certain collectors who can afford to write a one-time check.

In the very high end of the market, opportunity costs have to be considered. If you are a serious collector of Charlotte quarter eagles (or anything else for that matter...) the chance to buy an incredible one-of-a-kind set may truly be a once in a lifetime opportunity. In this instance, the chance to buy a great set for a 10% premium seems to me to be a great value.

Over the years I have purchased a number of superb specialized collections. There has never been a time that I didn't want to sell the collection intact, preferably to a loyal collector who, I hoped, would sell it back to me at a later date. I've even been willing to sell it at a discount price, as an intact set, knowing that there was a chance I could handle it again in the future. But in virtually every case I have had to break the set up and sell it two coins here and three coins there. Why? In the case of million-dollar and higher sets I think price has been as issue. There are not many collectors who can (or would) write a check for a million-plus dollar specialized collection.

As I mentioned above, the "set premium factor" is a term often used by marketers when selling coins to new collectors. This concept is typically negated by the fact that these marketers are selling lower end coins or they are in the midst of promoting material that is common and isn't ever worthy of some sort of premium factor down the road. But I do believe that set premium factors do exist and that savvy collectors can create their own mystique when it comes times to sell.

If you don't believe this, study the results of the recently-concluded Steve Duckor collection of Barber half dollars. Yes, the coins were great. Yes, the selling venue for them was ideal. And, yes, Heritage did a fine job cataloging and presenting them. But I honestly believe that many of the buyers, consciously or not, paid a strong premium factor because they believed (rightfully, in this case...) that "if the coin had a Duckor pedigree, it had to be good." This was a case where there was a set premium factor; in some cases a remarkably strong one.

The Garrett 1808 Quarter Eagle

I handled some very interesting coins at this year's Boston ANA show. One of the ones that I thought was the most interesting was the Garrett specimen of the 1808 quarter eagle; a coin that was both very rare from a numismatic standpoint and historic from the standpoint of its pedigree.

The 1808 quarter eagle is a one-year type with a mintage of only 2,710. It is actually a less rare coin that other quarter eagles of this era but it is famous due to its status as a one-year type and, along with the 1796 No Stars, it is probably the most famous and desirable issue.

I would estimate that there are around 100-125 examples known in all grades. When available, the 1808 quarter eagle tends to be in lower grades and examples with nice, original coloration are really rare. There are a few very choice pieces known, the finest of which is the ex Dr. Judd coin owned by a Dallas family and graded MS65 by PCGS. The second finest is a PCGS MS63 that was most recently sold as Stack's 11/08: 4176 (at $517,500). A few other Uncirculated pieces are known as well.

The Garrett 1808 quarter eagle has a great background. It was sold as Lot 742 in Bowers and Ruddy's famous Garrett I auction, held in March 1980, where it was graded "Extremely Fine-40." It sold for $30,000 which was a strong price for a circulated 1808 quarter eagle at the time. The Garrett family had obtained it from the collection of Dr. Edward Maris who was far more famous for his study of New Jersey copper coins than for his gold issues.

This coin next appears at auction as Bowers and Merena 10/04: 606 where it brought $80,500. It then sold for $94,875 as ANR 3/06: 1421. Two years later, it went for $103,500 as Lot 1894 in Heritage's 2008 ANA sale. I purchased it at the ANA at a private sealed bid sale.

The Garrett 1808 quarter eagle is now owned by a specialist in early quarter eagles who appreciates its originality and pedigree. My thanks to him for allowing me to handle this wonderful coin and for being able to share it with you.

Some Observations About the 2010 Boston ANA Show

To be perfectly frank, I hate coin show reports. I hate to write them. I hate to read them. I don't care what restaurants a dealer went to and what they ate and I don't really care that Dealer X spent this much money on those coins at the show. That said, I also know that the ANA is the show that everyone who didn't attend wants to know about. So, with these people in mind, I thought I'd share a few random observations about the ANA. On a scale of 1-10, I'd rate this show as a solid 6; possibly a 7. Overall, I'd say a was a tiny bit disappointed. I was expecting the show to be an 8 or a 9 because of the fact that it was the first ANA in Boston since 1982 and the fact that Boston is within a few hours of huge numbers of serious collectors.

I go to coin shows primarily to buy and from a buying standpoint I was reasonably pleased. I bought some great coins. These include an 1854-O double eagle in PCGS AU55, the Garrett specimen of the 1808 quarter eagle (graded AU53 by PCGS) and over fifty crusty original 19th century gold pieces, most of which have already found their way onto my website. I would have liked to buy more but, hey, that's what I say at every show; even when I'm wondering how I'm going to sell all the great coins I just bought. And, yes, this paragraph is self-promotion.

Attendance seemed good and the mood among dealers and collectors seemed upbeat and positive. I didn't have any little old ladies walk up to my table with a New England shilling in a cigar box (a fella can dream, can't he?) but I was fairly pleased at the number of fresh coins that I was able to purchase on the floor.

I participated in three auctions. The Stack's sale contained an interesting fresh deal of Liberty Head eagles and prices were amazing (more on this in a future blog). The Bowers and Merena sale was reasonably strong but prices were mainly reflective on the quality of the coins. In other words, nice coins brought good prices while schlock sold cheaply, if at all. The Heritage sale was strong although prices didn't seem as off the charts as in years past. With the exception of the eagles in the Stack's sale the coins brought basically what they were worth. That sounds trite but, in past ANA sales, many coins brought a lot (stress a lot) more than they were worth. A lot.

In the area of rare gold, I noticed some definite market trends. Early date (i.e., pre-1834) gold was almost non-existent. Even the low end, overpriced stragglers that had been overhanging the market seemed to have disappeared. I can't remember an ANA at which I saw fewer early gold coins nor a major show that I purchased fewer.

There was extremely strong demand for Type One double eagles. The coins that nearly everyone seemed to want were common and somewhat better dates in AU50 and up, especially in the $2,000-7,500 price range. Demand was also strong for interesting Type Ones in the $10,000-20,000 range. Its hard to say what demand was like for expensive, really great Type Ones as there were almost none to be seen at the show.

Branch mint gold also was in demand. I bought and sold a few interesting pieces of Dahlonega at the show and had quite a few people come to my table with specific wants. I searched through dozens of dealers' inventories in a Quest for Crust and was unable to find more than a handful of truly DWN-worthy coins.

Another area that suddenly seems strong is Carson City double eagles. I sold a number of interesting CC Twenties and was pleased at the prices they bought. I tried to buy an amazing 1872-CC in NGC MS62+ that was far and away the finest known for the date but was outbid despite figuring it for nearly six figures. Congratulations to whoever purchased this coin; it was sensational.

Off the subject of coins for a second. I hadn't been to Boston in about a decade and it was great to return. What a fantastic city. Great places to shop, small and compact with wonderful walking, fantastic architecture; my kind of place. I was able to leave the show early one day and went to the Gardner Museum. The Rembrandt self-portrait and the two Botticellis were breathtaking, to say the least.

So, another ANA show has come and gone. After nearly 30 years of ANA's, I don't feel the excitement that I used to but this is clearly THE show of the year and the 2010 edition was memorable.

Aging Baby Boomers and Rare Gold Coin Prices

I recently received an email from a collector who asked what I thought were an extremely intelligent group of questions. In a nutshell, he asked the following. As boomers age, are we nearing a bubble in coin prices? At some point will the number of collectors with the financial means to collect rare gold decrease and will prices suffer accordingly? Go to any coin show and you will see a disturbing trend. The buyers of most “serious” coins (i.e., coins priced at $1,000 and above) are in their 50’s or 60’s and the dealers selling them these coins tend to be at least the same age, if not older. There are not many young collectors at shows and the number of “A” level dealers in their 20’s and 30’s can be counted on one hand. This spells trouble for the coin market, right?

I contend that the answer is not as obvious or as clear-cut as it would seem to be. I am a keen student of the history of the numismatic marketplace and, as far as I can tell, ever since coin collecting became popular in the United States (in the late 1850’s/early 1860’s) it’s been a hobby that mainly attracts older people. Think about it: coins are expensive and people in their 20’s and 30’s have never had enough discretionary income to be making impulsive non-essential purchase. When you are 27 years old, you are thinking about buying a house and saving money for your child’s education; not deciding what series of 19th century gold coin to specialize in.

But the world has changed in the last generation or two and wealth is no longer the exclusive province of the middle-aged and the mature. For the first time that I can remember I have a few good clients who are younger than I am and these collectors tend to be self-made entrepreneurs.

In the 1950’s, many collectors grew old at around the same time and the hobby was in a precarious spot. Lots of great collections were coming on the market at the same time and it seemed unlikely that these coins would be absorbed. For a while, prices were depressed and the short-term outlook of the market was gloomy. But along came the roll craze of the early to mid-1960’s and the market was suddenly reinvigorated by young collectors; some of who became famous dealers who are active to this day.

In the mid to late-1970’s the same trend was occurring. Collectors were graying and lots of coins were coming on the market. All of a sudden, precious metals prices began to boom and lots of new blood came into the market. Two decades later it was the State Quarter program that jumpstarted a moribund market. Again and again, we have seen cycles of demand in the coin market and when things appeared gloomy, something would happen that infused youth into the hobby.

The X factor in today’s market—and the future coin market(s)--is, of course, the Internet. Unlike in 1960 or 1980 or in 1990, it will be easier to replace this generation of graying numismatists with younger buyers due to the accessibility of information and the ease of purchasing rare coins on-line. And there is another factor that I believe will come into play as well: foreign buyers.

As is well-known, huge middle-class and upper-class populations are being created in China and India. These are countries with an interest in American culture and cultures that greatly prize gold. It is possible (not likely, but possible) that new markets for American gold coins could develop in these countries and this, of course, would greatly change the dynamic of the future coin market.

My guess is that some time in the next decade or so, we will see a significant change in the demographics of the coin market. Many of today’s “super-collectors” are going to be net sellers in a decade or so and it is certainly possible that prices at some point could drop in the short-term. But if this scenario occurs, I think it is highly possible that this dip will be short-lived and that a new generation of eager collectors will fill the void.