Looking at PCGS/NGC Population Figures of Type Two and Type Three Dahlonega Gold Dollars

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article that analyzed the recent population figures for Type One Dahlonega gold dollars. As I've done more research on gold dollars for my upcoming third edition Dahlonega gold book, I thought I would share the findings for the Type Two and Type Three issues. Read on for some interesting findings. 1855-D: I had originally estimated that 70-80 pieces were known to exist. I think this number may be just a touch on the low side but not by much. There are four Uncirculated examples known to me. Interestingly all of them have seen their grade change by at least one point (in some cases by two) since I wrote the second edition of my book in 2003. The Duke's Creek/Reed Hawn coin has gone from PCGS MS63 to NGC MS63 to NGC MS64 to PCGS MS64. It remains the finest known. A second coin has also been graded MS64 by NGC (ex Duke's Creek and Bass II: 102). Unfortunately, the dealer who owned this coin a few years ago has failed to turn in the extra tags and the NGC population currently shows three examples in this grade.

It is also interesting to note that both the aforementioned examples have shattered the magical six-figure mark at auction. The Hawn coin brought $143,750 in Stack's January 2009 auction while the Duke's Creek/Bass coin sold for $149,500 as Goldberg 2/07: 2094.

1856-D: If anything, I may have overestimated the total number known when I suggested that 80-90 1856-D gold dollars are extant. The grade distribution has changed but this is due to gradeflation and not a result of new coins coming on the market. Many of the four dozen or so coins I estimated to exist in EF grades have no morphed into AU's. I do know that at least one or two fresh Uncirculated coins have turned-up since 2003 including one nice PCGS MS62 that I was offered privately in around 2005.

My estimate of four to five Uncirculated 1856-D gold dollars is probably just a hair too low and today's number is more like six. I have seen three different coins in PCGS MS62 holders but at least one of these (probably the Duke's Creek: 1488 example) has magically become an NGC MS63. The best I've seen remains Green Pond: 1009 which still holds the all-time auction record for this date at $47,150.

1857-D: I'm not certain why but this date seems more available today than it was a decade ago, especially in About Uncirculated grades. My 2003 estimate of 120-130 known in all grades now seems pretty low; especially given the fact that the combined PCGS/NGC population is 189 as of the end of February 2010. Remarkably, the two services show no less than 28 (!) pieces in Uncirculated with twelve in MS62 and another eight in MS61. I think these numbers are quite inflated but I have seen at least five different PCGS MS62 1857-D dollars.

I'd say that the number of truly Uncirculated 1857-D gold dollars has climbed to six to nine based on today's grading. The best appear to be Duke's Creek: 1489 and Heritage 1/04: 1010 (ex Green Pond). Both are in PCGS MS62 holders.

1858-D: My original estimate of 125-150 known was way too low and the actual number is probably close to double this. The PCGS and NGC population figures seem insnaely high in AU and Mint State grades. NGC, as an example, shows 66 in AU and another 35 in Uncirculated while PCGS has a population of 62 in AU and 25 in Uncirculated.

There is some confusion at the higher end of the Condition Census as well. NGC shows two coins in MS66; one is Duke's Creek: 1490 which was previously graded MS65 by PCGS. There is one other superb coin known, ex Heritage 2/99: 6121. I'm guessing that this, too, has found its way into an NGC MS66 holder. PCGS shows two pieces graded MS65. I would assume that they are the two coins listed above in earlier incarnations and needing de-listing although I don't know this for sure. Remarkably, PCGS shows a population of eight in MS63 while NGC shows another seven in this grade. These figures seem very high as do the 21 graded by PCGS/NGC combined in MS62.

1859-D: My estimates on the 1859-D were too low as well although not as dramatically as for the 1858-D. I think there at least 200-250 known and maybe even as many as three hundred total in all grades. Gradeflation has made many of the old EF coins become AU but my numbers for Uncirculated coins hold up reasonably well. I had estimated that 12-17 were known in Uncirculated. I think the number today is somewhere in the range of 15-25.

Unlike with the 1858-D, there are still no Gem 1859-D dollars known. NGC has graded a single MS65 but it is a former PCGS MS64 and the current PCGS MS64 (ex Heritage 9/05: 4258 and Heritage 1/05: 8482) doesn't seem likely to gain further points on the grading ladder (although you never know...) The current PCGS population figures in MS62 are very inflated and all of the NGC figures from MS61 through MS64 are inflated as well.

1860-D: I still believe the rarity of this date has been overstated. My previous estimate was that 90-100 were known and it is possible that even this range was a bit on the low side. It is possible that as many as 100-125 are known. Many of the coins that used to be regarded as EF's are now AU's (this is a very hard issue to grade properly) and the combined PCGS/NGC figures for AU's is an aggressive eighty-four. In my opinion, this figure is way inflated.

I used to regard the Duke's Creek 1860-D as the finest known. It was in a PCGS MS63 holder back in the early 2000's. It later became an NGC MS64 and when I last saw it in 2007 it looked liked it had mingled with a bag of Cheetos as it was flaming orange in color. This coin still shows up on the PCGS report as an MS63 and twice on the NGC report as an MS64 and I don't think it is either. My old estimate of six to seven known for this date seems accurate to me, even in 2010.

1861-D: My estimate of 55-65 known might be just a bit on the low side. There could be as many as 75 known when you factor in the damaged, cleaned or "no-grade" examples that exist. I had tried to figure these in before with the coins I called "VF" (virtually no problem-free 1861-D dollars exist in grades lower than EF45) but I think the number includesd as many as ten extra problem coins. PCGS and NGC have combined to grade thirty in Uncirculated which makes my estimate of ten to twelve in Mint State seem low. The revised number will have to be raised; maybe even as high as fifteen to twenty.

When I did my last Condition Census for this date in 2003, PCGS had graded five in MS63 and one in MS64. These numbers are remarkably consistent today. There is a second MS64; which was earlier an NGC MS65 and before this a PCGS MS63. The NGC numbers are, as usual, a mess.

In my next article on PCGS/NGC population figures for Dahlonega gold coins I'll be focusing on quarter eagles.

"Hey DWN, Why's Your Inventory So Small...?"

I recently received an email from a new collector with a subject line that was similar to the quotation that I titled this blog. At first I thought the question was obnoxious. Then I pondered it a little and realized that it was actually a pretty good question after all. So why is my current on-line inventory so small? I can give you the standard ten word answer but since this is my forum and I'm assuming you actually care about these things I'm going to give you the long, drawn-out multi-part answer.

I own considerably more coins than what you see for sale at any point in time on my website. Colns that aren't on www.raregoldcoins.com might not be listed for a number of reasons. They may be out at PCGS or NGC being graded. They might be at CAC awaiting a blessing from John Albanese. I may have decided to sell them somewhere else other than my website (sometimes for stealthy reasons and sometimes not) or I may have offered them directly to a collector with whom I have an established relationship with.

There are a small number of boutique retail operations (of which I proudly count myself as one) that handle really nice, really rare coins. I'm guessing that most of them are experiencing the shortage of good coins to buy right now that I am. I've already explained, ad nauseum, my reasoning for the current Coin Drought and I won't repeat my reasons here. But I'd be wary of any firm right now with hundreds and hundreds of seemingly cool coins in stock at this point in time. If you are a choosy, fussy buyer like I am, there is no way that you'll have a ton of good coins in stock right now.

Even if we weren't in the midst of Coindroughtapoolza I'd still never have what would be considered a vast, deep inventory. The coins that I specialize in are genuinely rare and that fact, coupled with my personal fussiness, means that I am likely to pass on 95+% of the coins that I see in other dealer's inventories. I promise you that for every Charlotte half eagle in Extremely Fine or Dahlonega quarter eagle in About Uncirculated that I pull the trigger on and buy, I've passed on alot of other pieces that aren't "DWN Quality."

I have always been attracted to rarity and there are not many common or semi-scarce coins that I will buy. This has changed a bit in recent years as I've had to expand my definition of what makes a coin cool enough for me to write a check for it. As an example, No Motto Philadelphia gold coinage has become interesting to me in recent years. The main reasons why this is are that a) the coins are actually available from time to time b) they seem like really good values and c) choice, original examples with nice color and surfaces are more plentiful than, say Charlotte or Dahlonega coins of this era which are often vile and not interesting to me at any price.

There's another reason why I don't want 500 coins in stock at any given time. I am very controlling when it comes to inventory control (sorry for the bad pun...) and I want to know about every coin that I own. I can always tell you what I paid for a coin, where it was bought, its pedigree and anything else interesting about it; without having to look up this information on my computer or having to refer to a spreadsheet. If I had hundreds or thousands of coins I obviously would not be able to do this. As a collector this might not be important to you. But I think it's kind of neat to deal with someone who is really aware of every coin that he owns.

Another reason why I don't list a ton of coins on my website is that I want it to be very user-friendly and easy to navigate. If I had a thousand coins listed at any given time on www.raregoldcoins.com it would become far less simple and elegant to use than it currently is. There is a reason why it is easy to find things on my site. I deliberately don't want you to have to click three links and pull down two scroll-bars just to find Liberty Head quarter eagles. I've designed the site to be exactly what I personally want when I'm looking for things on the web. And there's nothing I had more than cluttered, confusing websites.

So for those of you who want to be overwhelmed by coins on a website, you've come to the wrong place. If you value quality over quantity, I think you'll find my site to be the number one resources for rare United States gold coinage. I look forward to your visits to the site and welcome feedback to make your experience(s) more enjoyable.

Deciding What to Collect

During the last few weeks I've had a similar conversation with a few new and more experienced collectors: what should I be collecting? I've found all the conversations that I have had with these collectors to have a similar unifying theme; at least from the standpoint of the collectors. My observation is that everyone takes the "what should I collect?" question a bit too seriously and expects there to be a rigorous set of rules that they have to follow. I personally think they are forgetting the fact that coin collecting is more about having fun than following a set of rules. If you are reading this on my website, you've probably already decided that you want to collect United States gold coins. Taking this a step further, if you are a brand-new collector (or you are at least new to gold coins) how do you decide specifically what to focus on? Or do you need to focus on anything at all?

There are a number of considerations that come into play. The most obvious of these is your budget. If you are currently comfortable spending $2,500 on a single coin than you should probably recognize the fact that you are eventually going to be comfortable at a higher level; let's say $5,000 or so per coin. If this is your comfortable level, then you have to be practical when choosing an area to collect. Early gold, as an example, will not work for you as very few pieces are available in the $5,000 range. Look at auction records, dealer websites and pricing guides to help select an area that you can afford.

Do you have to put together a set? That really depends on an individual collector's perspective. A few decades ago, nearly everyone collected specific sets by date. But coins were a lot cheaper back then so it was not impractical to decide to assemble a full date set of Dahlonega quarter eagles or San Francisco eagles in high grades. Today, rare coins are expensive and for many collectors it isn't practical to assemble a date set. Or, they may have to settle for very low quality examples of the rarities within their selected set.

But where is it written that you absolutely have to complete a set? Let's say you really like Dahlonega quarter eagles and you've been able to purchase six or seven really nice About Uncirculated common dates over the years. As you draw closer to completion you come to the realization that you are never going to be able to afford the key issues such as the 1855-D or the 1856-D. I look at sets of coins on a regular basis and, to be honest, I'd be a lot more impressed with a partial set of ten Dahlonega quarter eagles that contained very nice coins than a complete set of twenty that had a damaged 1856-D, an 1855-D that was harshly cleaned and a few other pieces that stuck out like a sore thumb.

Something that I recommend to certain collectors is what I call the "best available coin" strategy. This requires thinking outside the proverbial box a little bit but it makes sense to me. Let's say that you've decided on some basic parameters on all the coins you'll be buying. You want all the coins to be gold, you want them all to be dated prior to 1880, you want them all to have original mintage figures below 25,000, you want them all to have PCGS populations of less than 150 in all grades and you want them to grade at least AU50. If you've established these parameters, why limit yourself to coins from a specific mint or denomination? If you see a coin that is choice and original and which fits most (or all) of your strategic parameters, buy it; it doesn't matter if its a San Francisco quarter eagles, a Philadelphia half eagle or a Carson City eagle.

Earlier, I mentioned personal preference and I think this is an extremely important factor in deciding what you want to collect. Buy what appeals to you, not because a dealer is touting a coin or because there is a promotion trying to convince you a series is undervalued. Some people don't like small coins. If you are in this camp, that's fine; stay away from gold dollars and quarter eagles. Some people like big, hefty coins; if this describes you than you are going to naturally be attracted to eagles and double eagles.

There are other factors that relate to personal preference. You may or may not be attracted to a coin because of its design. I personally do not find the Liberty Head gold series to be dramatically attractive from an artistic point of view so I do not derive aesthetic satisfaction from specializing in these coins. Gold coins struck between 1795 and 1900 appeal to me more as a result of their historic significance than their beauty.

As someone who buys millions of dollars of coins every year, I find myself more and more value-conscious all the time. Many coins strike me as poor value. Why? Generally because, in my opinion, I feel that they do not meet the supply/demand ratio that makes sense to me. I find it hard to rationalize getting excited about a $10,000 coin that I can find at any coin show (sorry, Mr. 1911-D quarter eagle...). I like coins that I can only find from time to time and I like coins that have two or three or four eager collectors waiting for each one that comes available.

Popularity is an important factor in deciding what to collect. I'm not saying that you should collect generic St. Gaudens double eagles in MS63 because they have a very high level of demand. But I'm saying that you should be careful about focusing on a seemingly undervalued issue that is a good deal mainly because no one cares. Yes, you might be a brilliant contrarian and you might have stumbled on the next Three Dollar gold piece series circa 2003-2004 (an undervalued series on the cusp of dramatically expanding in popularity) But you may have also found an area that is a marginal deal because no one is likely to care any time soon. Ask a trusted dealer or collector friend what he thinks about your decision(s).

The most important message that I'd like you to take from this is that collecting should be fun and that you should collect in order to satisfy yourself and not others. Sure, I'd like every upscale collector in the United States to collect Charlotte and Dahlonega gold. I'd get to be King of the Market for a few years, retire and start work on that great screenplay I've been kicking around for years. But I respect the fact that C+D gold isn't for everyone. Find what you love, learn as much as you can about it and have fun. After that, it's all easy...

Some "Secret" Varieties of Early U.S. Gold

There are a few relatively unknown but numismatically significant varieties of early United States gold coinage that I think are likely to be included in comprehensive collections of these issues as they become more popular with collectors. Here are a few of the "secret" varieties that I would suggest collectors be on the lookout for. 1798 Close Date and Wide Date Quarter Eagles. Despite this date's low mintage figure, it remains undervalued in comparsion to the other 18th century quarter eagles. There are two distinct varieties known. The more avilable and better known of the two is the Wide Date (BD-2) on which the four digits in the date are quite widely spaced. An easy way to distinguish this variety is by the presence of five berries on the reverse. There are an estimated four to five dozen known in all grades.

The "secret" variety for this year is the Close Date. This variety has only four berries on the reverse. It is very rare in all grades with around two dozen or so known.

1825 Close Fraction and Distant Fraction Quarter Eagles. There are not many die varieties in the short-lived Capped Bust Large Size type of 1821-1827 but there are actually three varieties for the 1825.

Two of the varieties show a distant fraction on the reverse with the numerals relatively far from the fraction bar. The more common (BD-2) has a 5 in the date that leans far to the left and which is placed below the 2. The rarer variety (BD-1) and the 5 more upright and even with the 2. There are as many as 90-100 known of the former while the latter remains very rare and apears to have fewer than ten accounted for.

The third variety of 1825 quarter eagle (BD-3) has the same reverse as seen on the 1826 quarter eagle with a very close fraction where the numerals touch the fraction bar. It is also very rare, although not as much so as BD-1. I would estimate that around a dozen exist.

In the half eagle series, there are many interesting "secret" varieties; enough so that I am only going to mention a few here.

1795 Small Eagle Half Eagles. There are no less than dozen varieties of 1795 Small Eagle half eagles known. To me, the most interesting are the blundered reverse with the the final S in STATES erroneously punched over a D. There are two die varieties known that have this impressive reverse.

The first variety, BD-5, is recognizable by the left side of the 1 in the date touching the curl. It is extremely rare with fewer than ten known. The second variety, BD-6, has the date free of the curl. This is a much more available coin with as many as 75-90 pieces known. The S/D in STATES half eagles do not generally sell for a premium but they have a very high "coolness" factor due to the spectacular blunder on the reverse that is easily visible to the naked eye.

1798 Half Eagles. The 1798 Large Eagle half eagles are fertile ground for variety collectors. There are coins with a Small or "Normal" 8 in the date as well as those with a Large 8. The Large 8 coins exist with thirteen and fourteen stars on the reverse.

The "secret" variety is the 1798 Large 8 with fourteen reverse stars. While this variety already sells for a premium over the more common Large 8 with thirteen stars, what makes it interesting is that there is only one die variety known (BD-3). Only three dozen or so exist in all grades and the importance of this coin as a distinct naked-eye variety is only now being understood by specialists.

1799 Half Eagles. This is another very fertile year for variety collectors with an amazing nine varieties known. Seven of these have small reverse stars while two have large stars on the reverse.

The "secret" variety for 1799 half eagles is the large reverse stars. There are two die varieties known. The first, BD-5, is easy to recognize by the last 9 being too high and recut to the right. There are two to three dozen known. The second, BD-8, has the last 9 even with the first and there is no recutting. This variety is slightly rarer overall and it appears to be extremely rare in high grades.

There are a number of varieties in the half eagle series produced from 1800 through 1807 but these tend not to generate as much collector interest. In a future blog, I will be discussing the ones that have the greatest appeal to me.

Stack's Sells Two Important Dahlonega Rarities

In their recently concluded January 2010 Americana sale held in New York, there were two record-setting Dahlonega gold coins that I think are worth taking a closer look at. What were these two pieces and why did they sell for as much money as they did? The first piece was an 1861-D gold dollar graded AU53 by PCGS. I had sold this exact coin a few years ago and was familiar with it. It was very high end for the date and grade and, by today’s standards, would probably grade AU55 to AU58. I expected that it would bring around $40,000 or so. It sold for $57,500. I believe that this is an all-time record price for a circulated 1861-D dollar.

This coin did so well for a number of reasons. The first, obviously, is that it was a nice coin. 1861-D gold dollars are not well-known for having good eye appeal and the last few that have been available have either been damaged or not terrifically appealing. The second is that there is currently an unprecedented demand for this date. The 1861-D dollar is an indisputably cool coin and a lot of people are looking for coins like this right now. Given the supply/demand ratio, it seemed likely that this coin would sell for a strong price but, again, I was pretty stunned at it bringing close to $60,000.

What would this coin have sold for in another environment? Probably a lot less. One thing about auctions is that it only takes two people to really want a coin and it can sell for a ton of money. If I had owned this exact 1861-D dollar and put it on my website, I’m sure my asking price would have been in the low $40’s and I might have not even expected to get that much money for it. But now that the bar has been raised for the 1861-D dollar, I expect that the next one offered will be priced enthusiastically, to say the least.

Another really exceptional Dahlonega coin in the Stack’s sale was an 1860-D half eagle graded MS63 by PCGS. This superb coin had an exceptional back story. According to the catalog it had been “received at the Dahlonega mint in 1860 in exchange for mined gold and scrap.” It had been in the same family since then and it was making its first appearance ever. It brought $43,125.

I did not actually see the coin in person but at least two reliable sources told me it was absolutely lovely and had a good chance to grade MS64 if resubmitted. It was probably the second finest known example of this date and it was one of the freshest, most interesting Dahlonega half eagles of any date to come onto the market in a number of years.

The Duke’s Creek/Miles/Bareford 1860-D, graded MS64 by both PCGS and NGC, is traditionally accorded the status as the finest known 1860-D. It brought $49,500 all the way back in the Stack’s May 1995 auction. Given this fact, I expected the 1860-D to bring around $40,000 and I was actually the underbidder on the January 2010 coin, having dropped out at $35,000 plus the 15% buyers’ premium.

What this coin’s price realized tells me is that the market for very high quality, fresh to the market Dahlonega gold is very strong. There is little in the way of supply and when a once-in-a-lifetime coin like this 1860-D becomes available, collectors react accordingly.

Looking at PCGS/NGC Population Figures of Type One Dahlonega Gold Dollars

I’ve starting working on the third edition of my Dahlonega gold coin book. One of the first things I’m doing in looking at PCGS and NGC population figures in order to help establish overall and comparative rarity levels for each issue from this mint. I’ll be writing an occasional article about each denomination as I get there. Instead of writing long, drawn-out studies, I thought it would be best to sub-divide the categories and, thus, have chosen to limit my current blog to just Type One dollars. Looking strictly at the total number of coins graded by the two services, I believe that the rarity estimates I made in the first and second editions of my books were low; in some cases way too low. But I also believe that the number of resubmissions for Dahlonega gold dollars is extremely high. Generally speaking, small coins tend to be graded a bit more subjectively than large coins and since Dahlonega gold dollars can have big spreads between AU58 and MS61 or MS62 and MS63, it makes sense that many high end coins would be graded again and again.

Let’s look at each of the Type One Dahlonega gold dollars and try to make sense of the PCGS/NGC numbers.

1849-D: In my last book I estimated that there were 250-300+ examples known. Given the fact that PCGS and NGC have a combined population of over 500 coins, my estimate seems very low. The actual number extant is probably more like double my original estimate; perhaps even a bit higher. What’s amazing about the PCGS and NGC populations for this issue is how high they skew on the grading scale. As an example, PCGS has graded a total of 235 1849-D gold dollars. Of these, only 56 (or slightly less than 24%) grade EF45 or below. The most incredible statistic is that NGC has graded 110 of 283 1849-D gold dollars they have recorded in MS60 or above. This works out to nearly 40% (!). The grades that appear most inflated for this issue are AU58 and MS62.

1850-D: This date does not seem nearly as distorted in rarity as does the 1849-D. The grading services have a combined population of 166 and this is not hugely out of line with my estimate of 110-120 known. I’d say the correct number is somewhere in the 100-150 range. The PCGS population figures in AU skew a little bit on the high side and this is due as much to gradeflation as it is resubmissions. NGC’s data is, as always, more problematical. They have recorded 94 1850-D gold dollars in all grades with 57 in AU and another 24 in Mint State This works out to over 86% of all 1850-D dollars grading AU or better. I think the fact that PCGS has graded six in Mint State while NGC has graded 24 is pretty interesting. I feel comfortable with my original estimate of six to seven known in Uncirculated; I may raise this number just a bit but the 1850-D remains very rare in properly graded Mint State.

1851-D: My original estimates for this date in terms of the total number known appear to be on the low side. I estimated 150-175; the current combined PCGS/NGC population is 244. I’ll probably revise my estimates upwards to the 200-250+ range. This date appears to be less rare in higher grades than I originally believed. I estimated that there were 55-60 in AU and another 12-15 in Mint State. PCGS and NGC have combined to grade 149 in AU and another 70 in Uncirculated. The Uncirculated numbers are way out of line due to NGC’s huge number graded in MS61 (19) and MS62 (24). The PCGS numbers seem a touch inflated in MS62 and possibly just a bit inflated in MS63. It is possible that there may be as many as 15 to 20 examples known in Uncirculated.

1852-D: I’ve always thought that the 1852-D was the hardest Type One Dahlonega gold dollar to grade because of its strike and the current NGC and PCGS populations bear this out. But instead of being conservative, as they were back in the 1980’s and early 1990’s, the services now tend to inflate the grades of this date. It used to take an amazing 1852-D dollar to garner even an AU55 grade from PCGS or NGC; today anything with a hint of lust seems to be graded AU55 or better. My original estimate of 100-110 known in all grades is clearly low and the revised range will be at least 125-175. I do feel good about my estimate of seven to nine known in Uncirculated; even in spite of NGC’s population of “31” in Uncirculated. I would strongly disregard NGC’s current population of 16 in MS61 and nine in MS62. PCGS has graded seven in MS61. Although I don’t agree that all of these are actually “new” coins, I have seen at least six different pieces and don’t feel the number is inflated by resubmissions.

1853-D: The original overall rarity estimate of 110-120 known is a bit on the conservative side and I’ll likely change the estimate to more like 150-200+. I’ve always found the 1853-D to be a pretty difficult issue to locate in AU and better and the current PCGS/NGC population figures is surprisingly high. PCGS has graded 86 total of which 65 (or over 77%) grade AU and higher. NGC has graded 103 in all of which 100 (or 97%) are AU or better. This date is not non-existent in lower grades as the third-party numbers would suggest and I still believe that around a third of all known 1853-D dollars grade EF or lower. My estimate of six to seven known in Uncirculated is too low. This is partly due to new coins being discovered and partly due to gradeflation. I believe that there are around a dozen known; perhaps even a few more than this.

1854-D: I think my rarity estimates for the 1854-D were pretty accurate. I suggested that there were 85-95 known in all with nine to ten in Mint State. The total number may be as high as 100-125 but I think properly graded Mint State 1854-D gold dollars remain very rare. NGC shows a population of 16 in this grade which is clearly way inflated and their figure of eight in MS62 is inflated as well. PCGS shows six in MS62. I can account for at least four different coins; not all of which I necessarily agree with the grade. Both services show well over 50% of the total number graded to be at least AU. I disagree with this and I think that many of the so-called AU coins are, in fact, EF.

My overall conclusion for the current PCGS and NGC populations for Type One gold dollars from Dahlonega is that they way too high due to resubmissions and are skewed considerably towards AU and Uncirculated coins. It will be interesting to compare these numbers with the ones for Type Two and Type Three issues from this mint.

Better Date Type Two Liberty Head Double Eagles: A Re-Evaluation

As recently as a few years ago, collecting Type Two Liberty Head double eagles was very popular. A marketing firm located in the Southwest had actively promoted this series, other firms had jumped on the Type Two bandwagon and the series had caught on with collectors. Then, with little warning, the aforementioned marketing firm shifted their focus onto other series and suddenly the Type Two double eagles were out of favor. This has left the savvy collector with an opportunity that I find very interesting. Before I get specific about the Type Two double eagles that I feel are overlooked and undervalued, let me give you a little bit of background about this series. The Type Two double eagles were produced from 1866 until 1876 and they are so named due to having the second major design of the Liberty Head type; in this case the addition of the motto IN GOD WE TRUST on the reverse. These coins were produced at the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Carson City mints. The CC issues are well-known and avidly collected. The San Francisco issues tend to be condition rarities (i.e., they are obtainable in lower grades but scarce in higher grades). It is the Philadelphia issues that, I believe, offer the best value to collectors.

Many of the Philadelphia issues of this design type are extremely common. Dates that fall into this category include the 1873, 1875 and 1876. But there are a few that are scarce in all grades and are priced within the price parameters of many collectors. With the value levels of even common dates double eagles soaring in the recent months, these Philadelphia issues seem like a particularly good value right now.

My first sleeper date is the 1866. It is a numismatically interesting issue as it is the first year-of-issue for the Type Two design. The 1866 is usually seen in lower grades and I consider it to be moderately scarce in the middle to higher AU grades. It is still possible to purchase a very presentable About Uncirculated 1866 double eagle for less than $3,000. Given the fact that prices for this date jump up two to three times in the lowest Uncirculated grade(s), I think nice original AU55 to AU58 coins are very good values.

For many years, the 1868 was THE sleeper date in the entire Type Two series. It is now well-publicized and no longer an especially affordable coin. That said, it is still quite scarce in even EF45 to AU50 and it is a coin that is especially difficult to find with original color and nice surfaces. Trends has risen appreciably for the 1868 douible eagle in the last three years but nice examples still bring full Trends or above. As an example, Heritage 12/09: 1939, graded AU58 by PCGS and verified by CAC (and extremely choice in my opinion) brought $8,625 against a Trends of $8,500.

The 1869 is an issue that I don't see very often and I think it is very undervalued. Nice mid-range to upper-range AU coins are still priced at the $2,500-3,500 level which seems extremely reasonable for a coin that is scarce and which becomes quite rare in higher grades.

While the 1868 is the rarest Philadelphia Type Two double eagle from the standpoint of overall rarity, the 1870 is not far behind. And the beauty of this issue is that it is currently priced at about half the market rate of the 1868. The 1870 is hard to locate even in the lower AU grades and choice, original AU55 to AU58 pieces are great value at current levels. Expect to spend around $4,000-5,000 for a nice AU55 and $5,000-6,000 for an AU58.

One final undervalued Type Two is the 1871. This date has a slightly different rarity profile than the others mentioned. It is comparable to the 1869 and 1870 in terms of overall rarity (in fact it might even be a bit rarer) but it is slightly more available in Uncirculated due the presence of a small hoard which hit the market many years ago. In AU55, PCGS has graded just twenty pieces (with another twenty higher) but the price level remains affordable. The last few 1871 double eagles I have seen in AU55 have traded in the $3,500-4,500 range while AU58's are worth $5,000-6,000.

As with all double eagles, I'd recommend that buyers be patient when seeking these coins. Look for examples with minimal obtrusive marks, non-processed surfaces, and nice natural color. When the right coin does appear for sale, I'd recommend immediate and decisive action as these pieces are becoming more popular with collectors.

Despite the fact that double eagles are easily the most popular denomination of United States gold coin with collectors and investors, there are definite "pockets of value" that the informed individual can locate with a little basic research. In the Type Two series the five Philadelphia issues that I mentioned above offer the collector alot of rarity for the money; not too mention an attractive large-sized coin with nearly an ounce of gold.

The 1883-O Eagle Becomes Trendy (and Spendy...)

With little fanfare, the 1883-O eagle has become the coin du jour in the rare date gold market. This rare date, which for years was a cult item that was seemingly overlooked by all except for a small cadre of specialists, is suddenly a coin that is bringing big bucks. What’s behind the 83-O buzz? Let’s back up a bit and discuss some background about this issue. The 1883-O is the rarest New Orleans eagle with an original mintage of a ridiculously low 800. In my recent book on New Orleans gold, I estimate that there are three to four dozen known. This includes a single coin in Uncirculated (an NGC MS61 that I sold a few years ago) and perhaps a dozen that grade About Uncirculated.

For many years, the 1883-O eagle had sold for $10,000 to $15,000 in Extremely Fine grades when it was available. I do remember the Eliasberg coin (graded EF45 by PCGS) selling via private treaty around four years ago for $20,000 and saying at the time: “Man, that’s a lot of money for that coin!”

Things started to change for this date in the early part of 2009. The Heritage 2/09 coin, graded EF45 by PCGS, sold for an exceptional $29,388. I can remember right after the sale, a client of mine, who I had sold a lovely NGC AU58 example to a few years earlier for not much more money, said “Guess I got a good deal, no?”

Then came the Heritage 9/09: 1667 coin. It was graded NGC AU50 by NGC and, in my opinion, it wasn’t an especially nice piece for the grade. It sold for $43,125. After this lot hammered, I was really intrigued by the new levels and anxiously awaited the next auction appearance for the 1883-O eagle.

I didn’t have to wait long. The recently concluded 2010 FUN sale contained an example graded EF45 by PCGS. This coin was nice and original but (and this is a large but...) the obverse was covered with discoloration from impurities in the planchet. This was a coin that not everyone was going to like and I wondered if we’d see prices revert back to their pre-2009 level.

It sold for $25,875. Trends remains stuck at $15,000. So what gives?

I attribute the rise in prices to a few things.

1) When my book on New Orleans gold came out a few years ago, more people learned about this date’s rarity. The new information clearly drove up demand.

2) Liberty Head eagles have quietly become a popular area for collectors in the past few years. Many non-specialists are not aware of this but there are a number of new collectors building sets in this series.

3) It has become more market-acceptable to buy truly rare coins and you can’t argue with an issue that has an original mintage of fewer than 1,000.

4) Once the bar was raised in 2009 for this date, it became impossible to buy the 1883-O at old levels. In other words, the person who was brave enough to pay nearly thirty grand for an EF45 in the Heritage 2/09 sale made it numismatically acceptable for everyone else to pay close to this amount (or more in some cases) down the line. In a thinly-traded market, sometimes all it takes is one impressive auction result to make the market double or triple literally overnight.

The moral of the story? If you see other truly rare coins like the 1883-O eagle that are clearly undervalued but have compelling reasons to appreciate in value down the road, be a pathfinder/trailblazer and jump in before the masses follow.

Some Random Observations About the 2010 FUN Show

Just like that (cue snapping fingers and whooshing sound) the 2010 FUN show came and went. For me, FUN is always productive and this year was no exception. I had a very good show and instead of the usual tedious (and self-serving) show report, I’d rather share a few random observations about the convention. *I looked at oodles and oodles of coins at the show and what I didn’t see is, to me, every bit as interesting as what I did see. Two market areas that I participate in but found virtually impossible to buy in were early gold and Type One Liberty Head double eagles. I wanted to come back from the show with at least five pieces of early gold. I returned with none. Zero. Zilch. I saw some overgraded, dipped out coins that had been around the block. I looked at an interesting deal of early quarter eagles that was priced “enthusiastically.” But I saw virtually no fresh, interesting pieces of early gold. My take on this is that most of the nice examples that have been sold in the past few years are in strong hands and people just don’t want to sell right now; especially with prices being a bit flat in this area. Same with Type One double eagles. I saw about thirty 1857-S and 1861 but virtually none of the interesting dates. I think this is due to the fact that there are many collectors interested in these coins right now (especially the better dates priced below $10,000).

*Fairly expensive coins sold very well at the show, at least for me. In the new market reality I define “fairly expensive” as $10,000 and up. I came to the show with around 20 coins that fit into this category and sold every single one. If the coin was interesting or fresh or nice for the grade, there were ready and willing buyers.

*Unlike Long Beach or some other shows, FUN seems to bring out new faces. I sold coins to four or five collectors that I had never met before.

*I was a bit surprised that Thursday seemed quiet while Friday was a madhouse. Usually, at least at FUN shows, the opposite is true. For whatever reason, people appear to have come a day later than normal. Friday was one of the busier days at a coin show for me that I can recall with two, three and even four people continually at my table buying, selling and trading. It was one of those days when I say to myself “Self, I’m hungry” and then find out its 2:15.

*One of the highlights of the show was having Dale Friend take me on a personal tour of his fantastic collection of Bust half dollars which were on display at the PCGS table. Something that Dale did which I was impressed with was choosing a “look” for his coins then not deviating from this. In Dale’s case, he decided that he liked superbly toned coins; specifically pieces that had album-style color with lighter centers darkening towards the edges. What makes this set so remarkable is that even though it was assembled from many different sources, it looks like an old-time collection that had been stored in paper coin envelopes or albums for years and years. I’m told that these coins will be on display again at the Long Beach show and if you are attending, I urge you to view them (even if you don’t collect silver) and learn a few tricks from a master collector.

*I saw Lou Piniella at the coin show. For those of you who aren't baseball fans, Lou is manager of the Cubs and a former New York Yankees great. Being a huge Yankee fan, I personally thought it was pretty cool to see Lou at the show. Interestingly, I read an article a few months ago about Charlie Manuel, the manager of the Phillies and it stated that he, too, was a coin collector. Is there some sort of coin collector-major league manager connection going on here that we don't know about?