2008 Baltimore & Phoenix Show Reviews

Two weeks. Two shows. Too much? Read on for a quick overview of the recent Baltimore and Phoenix coin conventions.

I love the Baltimore show. Unlike some conventions that feel like they are in a death spiral, you can clearly sense that this show is fresh, healthy and on the upswing. And this year’s first edition was excellent.

The only negative about this show, at least for me, is the epic day-long schlep that entails getting to Baltimore from Portland. If anyone reading this would like to exchange trips on their private jet for U.S. gold coins please feel free to propose a trade immediately.

I spent two full working days in Baltimore. The first, a Thursday, was essentially a wholesale-only day. As you will probably guess, the usual “it was hard to buy and easy to sell” mantra held to form. Except that this time it was exceedingly hard to buy and really easy to sell. Every dealer I chatted with, even those with reputations for exaggeration confirmed this. In the world of nice, interesting coins it’s as dry as the Mojave on the bourse floor!

My second day, a Friday, was more of a retail day. From the opening of the show until the end of the day I had a constant stream of serious buyers at my table. Most walked away with a new purchase or two and most seemed very enthusiastic about the show.

If I had to make one negative comment about this Baltimore show it would be that, while full of the usual Cast of Collecting Characters, there didn’t seem to be many new faces. I’m guessing that this can be attributed to the fact that many of the new breed of upscale collectors do not attend shows and acquire coins primarily through auctions or via the Web from dealers such as me.

The Bowers and Merena sale conducted at Baltimore had some nice gold pieces and prices for the most part seemed to be quite strong. My two favorite gold lots were a really fresh 1840-O quarter eagle in an old green label PCGS MS62 holder that sold for $20,700 and a seemingly way undergraded 1843-O Large Date quarter eagle graded MS61 that brought a robust $17,940.

What was hot at the show? Early gold and Proof gold were in great demand, particularly nice quality material. I noted a lot of demand for interesting, choice items in the $1,500-7,500 range but even in bad markets coins like this is always easy to sell. Without a doubt the weakest area of the market was low end generic gold. In fact, price premiums are so low on coins like AU55 to MS61 common date $20 Liberty gold that there is a strong possibility that people will start melting these soon.

After what seemed like 45 minutes at home I turned around and went to Phoenix to attend the Spring ANA. Note to ANA Officials: great choice of venue but bad choice of dates. If you want more dealer enthusiasm for this show in the future DO NOT hold it the next week after Baltimore.

Because of the fact that most major dealers had recently attended Long Beach and Baltimore, the Phoenix show had many no-shows from the East Coast. Not only was there little enthusiasm, there were almost no fresh coins. Which meant that I wasn’t able to buy much and which meant that I had minimal enthusiasm.

I wound-up leaving the show early due to a combination of boredom, fatigue and the fact that I am preparing to fly out of town to pick-up a nice collection that I just bought. This collection has nice runs of Carson City double eagles, New Orleans eagles and Three Dollar gold and I expect to begin listing these coins on my website within a week or so.

There are no other coin shows of note between now and the Central States show in mid-April so I expect that demand for nice coins will be extremely high within a month and that the result will be an exceptionally good show in Chicago.

1993 Stetson Collection Sale

One of the more interesting (and lesser known) gold coin auctions that I’ve attended was the sale of the Stetson Collection which was conducted by the old Bowers and Merena in May, 1993. This was an instance where the back story (or stories in this case) was nearly as interesting as the coins themselves.

Beginning in 1992, an amazing hoard of gold coins started to quietly enter the market. This hoard consisted of tens of thousands of coins dated from the late 1830’s through, I believe, the 1920’s. It included large quantities of semi-key St. Gaudens double eagles, extensive runs of Carson City eagles and double eagles, large quantities of New Orleans eagles from the 1880’s through the early 1900’s, sizable quantities of San Francisco rarities and much, much more. It has never been revealed where these coins came from (although it is widely rumored that they came from an Eastern European central bank; given the time they were sold it would suggest that they were dispersed by a former Soviet bloc country in an attempt to infuse some Western capital).

This incredible hoard was dispersed over a number of years in a quiet, orderly fashion. Some of the coins went to dealers who sold them to marketers or specialists. Other coins were sold at auction. The first group of these coins to sell at auction was at the aforementioned Bowers and Merena sale and I can remember being extremely excited to have the chance to purchase some very important and very fresh coins.

Before I discuss the sale (and some events leading up to it) I’d like to discuss the appearance of the coins themselves. Because of the massive size of this hoard (and the intelligence of the individual who was masterminding its dispersal) these coins were, for the most part, kept original and dirty. Many of them had the prototypical “euro-Grime” appearance which I describe as follows: extremely deep almost brassy orange-gold toning with a noticeable two-ton e appearance from blackish grime or dirt on the high spots. This appearance was almost certainly the result of the environmental conditions in which these coins were kept. On some coins, the look was very attractive. On others, it was pretty ugly and the coins needed to be dipped (or washed with soap and water at the very least).

When I learned about the sale I thought it was important enough to fly up to Wolfeboro, New Hampshire to view them in person. I made the flight arrangements, booked a room at the Wolfeboro Inn and set off to the Granite State. My flight from Dallas wound up getting into Boston late and I missed my connection to Manchester, New Hampshire so I wound up renting a car and driving. As I made my way up I-93 to New Hampshire it started to get extremely foggy and by the time I was within an hour of Wolfeboro, it was dark and almost impossible to see more than ten feet ahead of me.

Following the instructions I had received from Chris Karstedt (remember, this is many years before MapQuest or a GPS in the car) I slowly made my way across New Hampshire and finally made it onto the road that took me directly to Wolfeboro. About two miles from the town, I saw a very large and very dead deer in the middle of the road with a pool of blood surrounding it.

As I arrived at the Wolfeboro Inn, the first person I saw was dealer Ron Karp and he had a large ice pack clutched to his wrist. Ron, it turned out, had accidentally struck and killed the deer I had seen on the road a few minutes earlier and he was clearly in pain. As I recall, Ron would wind-up going to the emergency room of the Wolfeboro Hospital where he had his wrist (which was clearly broken) in a cast. For many years, every time I saw him, I thought of that dead deer splattered in the middle of the road...

The rest of the lot viewing session was less eventful and involved no dead deer but I do remember really liking the coins. My thoughts were that they were very undergraded in the catalog (and all were sold raw) and that a number of the coins were, at the time, Condition Census.

Two of my personal favorite coins in the sale were the 1849-O eagle graded “EF45” by B&M (this exact coin is currently in an NGC MS61 holder) and an 1852-O eagle graded AU55 (currently in a PCGS MS60 holder). I purchased the former for $6,875 which I thought was pretty reasonable and was ready to buy the latter for around $7,500-8,500. When it wound up bringing $22,000 I knew that I was in for a long night (incidentally this exact coin came up for auction in the 1999 ANA sale where I was able to buy it for $14,835. Sometimes, good things come to those that wait...)

The Liberty Head double eagles in the Stetson sale included some of the best Carson City pieces I have ever seen as well as some great Type One coins. I remember an incredible 1866-S No Motto that was graded AU53/55 in the catalog and which, by the conservative Doug Winter Standards of 1993 I called AU55+. This was back before most people knew just how rare this coin was in higher grades and this piece remains one of the two best 1866-S No Motto double eagles known. It brought a whopping $17,600 and would be worth around ten times this amount today.

Another coin that I’d love to turn the Way Back Machine to 1993 for was a nice Extremely Fine 1870-CC (graded VF35 or finer in the catalog) that sold for $57,200. I know this coin was graded EF40 by PCGS right after the sale; I’m guessing it would be at least a 45 today. The 1873-CC in the sale was incredible by the standards of this date and would grade at least MS62 today; it brought $34,100 in the Stetson sale and this was a record price for the issue that stood for many years.

I can remember purchasing an 1879-O double eagle in this sale that later graded AU55 at NGC for $12,100; today this same coin is easily worth 6 to 7 times this amount. A few of the other great double eagles in the sale that I didn’t purchase included an 1881 that I graded MS61 for $31,900, an extremely rare 1886 that I graded MS60 or better for $30,250 (this is a $100,000+ coin today) and a really nice AU58+ 1891 for $13,750. You need to realize that these were huge prices for these coins at the time and the very rare Type Three Philadelphia issues would remain significantly undervalued well into the late 1990’s/early 2000’s.

One other double eagle I remember fondly from this sale was a 1913-S that I graded “Superb Gem best I’ve seen!!!” according to my catalog notes. This coin sold for a then-remarkable $37,400 and I’d be curious to know what holder it resides in today.

After the huge success of the Stetson sale in May, the owner of this hoard placed more great coins in the B&M Tower Hill sale in September. This group included a nice date run of Liberty Head half eagles featuring some exceptional San Francisco pieces. These also sold for very strong prices although, as I recall, the sale itself lacked the electricity of the Stetson sale earlier that year.

The gold coins from this hoard continued to appear on the market in small to medium sized groups for another few years. I’m guessing that most have been dipped or changed so that they are no longer recognizable but if you own a nice New Orleans eagle from the 1850’s or a high grade CC double eagle, the chances are good they may have come from this hoard.

Advice for Long-Term Collectors

There is no doubt that we are currently experiencing a very good coin market. Many areas have increased exponentially in price in the last three to five years with the top end of the market now out of reach for most collectors. And this has created a market that has proven very frustrating to long-term collectors. Let’s say that you are a collector who has focused on early gold for the last decade. In the past, your biggest worry was probably finding coins. If you collected, say, early half eagles, you were able to find the more common issues pretty easily and had steeled yourself to waiting quietly for your chance to buy the rare issues.

But in this very strong market, there is an “X” factor. New, well-heeled collectors have come into the upper echelon of many series and made life difficult for more established collectors. The early half eagle collector who had been waiting three years to buy an 1827 in nice Uncirculated all of a sudden has a number of loose cannons to compete against who may take the attitude “I don’t care what it sells for, I want it.”

This has to be frustrating. I was speaking to a collector the other day whose area of specialization has gone crazy (price-wise) seemingly overnight. He had been able to pretty much have his way in his series for a few years but now he’s frustrated because the coins he needs are either going to sell for more than he can afford or these new Mega Collectors are going to be offered the coins privately before he is.

As I told him, this isn’t necessarily a totally bad problem to have. In theory, the rare coins he already owns should be worth more money. But he’s frustrated because he doesn’t want to sell; he’d rather complete his chosen set and then worry about what to do with it.

This tale of woe got me to thinking: what are some gold series right now that a collector whose isn’t a Zillionaire could still be the Master of His Domain and collect very high quality coins without having to pay insane prices?

One series that comes to mind is business strike Type Three gold dollars. I personally love the series and if I were a collector looking for a challenge, I’d work on a date set of Philadelphia issues from 1856 through 1889. All of these can be obtained in Uncirculated and a wide variety of collecting budgets can be accommodated. One of the real beauties of these coins is that nearly all of the dates exist in Gem Uncirculated and if you haven’t seen an MS66 or MS67 gold dollar from the 1860’s or 1870’s, you are in for an aesthetic treat.

Another series that I think would be very challenging but a lot of fun would be the San Francisco quarter eagles struck from 1856 through 1878 (I’m not including the extremely rare 1854-S in this set since I’m assuming that most collectors are not going to be able to spring for the six-figure price that it would take to procure an example). The rarest collectible issues in this series are the 1862-S and 1863-S. Neither is incredibly hard to find in nice AU grades but if this set were going to be assembled in Uncirculated, both issues are extremely rare. What really intrigues me about these coins is the fact that they are genuinely rare in Uncirculated and they seem like pretty good values in comparison to the southern branch mint coins. I’m not so certain that they will ever become popular but the good news is that if you decide to work on a high grade set, you are not likely to be confronted by the dreaded Zillionaire Collector Who Has To Have It.

If a collector with a decent-sized budget wants to have his way in the Three Dollar gold series, he has an opportunity right now to buy some pretty interesting coins. I’ve seen some interesting dates in the MS63 and MS64 range sell for approximately 20-30% less than what they were bringing a few years ago and I’ve found the grading standards of these coins to be—of late—pretty tight in comparison to a few years ago. I would contend that the Three Dollar series is more popular right now than generally believed but it is not the Darling of Telemarketers that it was for a brief and shining moment in 2005-2006.

One other area that the prudent gold coin collector could do some serious damage in right now is No Motto half eagles and eagles from Philadelphia. You don’t see a ton of these on the market but when you do they generally do not incite Auction Frenzy like some of the Seated Liberty silver coins from this era. I have bought some really interesting No Motto Philadelphia eagles from the 1840’s and 1850’s in the last 90 days for less than $20,000 and even some very pleasing pieces in the $2,500-5,000 range. I’ll let you in on a little secret: these are some of the final gold coins of this era that have not been destroyed by coin doctors and if you like pretty, original pieces you are far likely to see a great looking 1847 Philadelphia half eagle than one from the branch mints.

So if you are being driven crazy by Insane Zillionaire Collectors who are making the top end of your series go nuts don’t despair. I’m guessing that 90% of these guys will go away in a few years and your series will go back to less frothy days when they leave. In the meantime, look at this as a good time to take a break, find a new series and once again become The Man.

February 2008 Long Beach Show Review

As I left for Long Beach last week, I wondered if this edition would be different from the last few Long Beach shows I have attended. The answer—and some random observations about the market—are included below. Unlike some of my competitors, I have made the decision not to attend the various and sundry pre-Long Beach auctions. I figure that at this point in my life I do not need to be spending an extra three weeks each year at Long Beach sales that are full of mostly uninteresting (to me) coins. This year’s sales did have a few interesting individual consignments including a nice run of Proof Bust Dimes at Superior and some better gold at Goldberg but, again, I was gearing up for the actual show itself.

On the Winter Show Grading Scale (WSGS) I would give the recent Long Beach convention a “B” which is actually better than I thought it would be. I did not bring many coins to sell and was more interested in buying new inventory. It was a struggle to find coins (surprise, surprise...) but some neat material did surface and I was pleased with what I purchased. Some of the highlights are:

-An original, evenly matched 1860 Proof Set graded PR64 to PR66 by PCGS

-An incredible NGC PR67 CAM 1904 half eagle

-A lovely Condition Census 1847-C half eagle graded MS62 by NGC

-An 1857-C gold dollar in PCGS MS61; the highest graded example of this date

-A number of crusty, original Southern gold coins in the $1,500-5,000 range

On at least three occasions I saw really interesting coins in another dealer’s case and asked to see them and a price quote. The price that I was quoted was so over-the-top outrageous that I wasn’t sure if I had been quoted in Dollars or Rupees. When I’m quoted $95,000 on a coin that I think I’d be seriously stretching on at $70,000 this means one of two things: either I am totally out of touch with the market or dealers are very, very proud of their very, very good coins right now and you have to pay very, very dearly at the absolute top end of the market.

Of course I didn’t expect to see many interesting coins just sitting out in dealer’s cases. At this point in time, if you do not have a special relationship with at least a few dealers, you aren’t likely to be offered anything very special. This is as true for a long-time dealer like me as it is for a collector.

My general observations about the market based on the Long Beach show are as follows:

*Many of the interesting coins from the FUN auctions are already gone. It is easy to sell choice, interesting coins right now and most dealers are able to move their best pieces much easier than in the past.

*Most of the recently graded coins I saw were more original in appearance and seemed “fresher” than in the past. I think this is as a result of both NGC and PCGS starting to crack down on coin doctoring. I’d like to think that we can thank CAC for this.

*Speaking of CAC, I saw many more stickered coins than I have before. I am not certain if they are selling better than non-stickered coins but a random inspection showed me that the typical CAC has nicer overall eye appeal than the typical non-CAC coin.

*Early gold is as hot right now as I can ever remember. If you bought nice quality early gold at least two or three years ago, you are currently looking like a genius. My gut feeling is that all the attention being focused right now on early material means that there are some great values in the Liberty Head series.

*When a market area gets hot it is amazing how fast coins disappear. I can’t remember seeing more than a handful of interesting rare Seated Liberty coins at the show and despite an intense search for interesting New Orleans half eagles and eagles, I came up nearly empty-handed.

Heritage had an extremely important specialized collection of Large Cents that brought amazing prices. The Husak Collection could serve as an absolute textbook model on how to properly assemble an in-depth specialized collection. The coins were exceptional, the presentation of the catalog was exceptional and the level of interest generated by the combination of the two was even more exceptional. Collectors realize that they do not have many chances to obtain truly special coins and there were dozens of coins in the Husak collection that, once they were sold, would be essentially impossible to replicate.

The gold coins in the Heritage sale were not quite as exciting but there will still some neat pieces. I loved the 1854 Type Two gold dollar graded MS68 by NGC and it brought a healthy $149,500. I was amazed that the 1863 gold dollar in NGC AU58 brought $6,900 which is almost double AU58 Trends; I assume that collectors have finally learned how rare this coin truly is in all grades.

The supposedly weak Three Dollar series saw some very strong prices. An NGC AU58 1854-D brought $54,625 and an AU58 1854-O in an old green label PCGS holder sold for an exceptional $34,500. A nice run of early Half Eagles saw some very strong prices including $40,250 for an NGC MS63 1804 Small 8 and $71,875 for an 1806 Round 6 in NGC MS64 with a CAC sticker. I really liked the NGC MS65 1810 Large Date and it sold for $92,000. An 1837 Classic Head graded MS66 by NGC sold for $94,875 which I actually thought was pretty reasonable as a PCGS MS66 example of this date brought $97,750 back in 1999 (but was considerably nicer, in my opinion). Some of the more interesting Liberty Head half eagles included a PCGS MS63 1857-O at a record-setting$50,025, an NGC MS61 1879-CC at $21,850 and a superb PCGS MS66 1886 at $21,850. Notable Eagles included an 1882-O in PCGS MS61 for $8,625 and a PCGS MS64 1897-O for $12,650. The two most significant double eagles in the sale were an 1860-O in NGC AU58 that was bid to $80,500 and a nice NGC AU53 1861-O that sold for $48,875. One coin that amazed me from a price standpoint was a nice PCGS EF40 1850-O in an old green label holder that sold for $10,350; if this coin doesn’t upgrade to at least AU53 then the new owner is well upside-down.

With major shows in Baltimore and Phoenix occurring in the next three weeks, it will be interesting to see if the momentum generated at Long Beach continues into the Spring.

No Motto Half Eagles

I’ve recently had the opportunity to sell some high grade No Motto half eagles and this got me thinking about the rarity of this series in higher grade. I thought it would be interesting to look at the populations of the No Motto half eagle series and to give them a bit of statistical analysis. I also thought it would be interesting to take the No Motto eagle series and compare these numbers as the two series offer a good contrast. The No Motto half eagle and eagle series were produced between 1838 and 1866 with the eagles beginning in 1838 and the half eagles beginning in 1839. The No Motto type includes a one year subtype in the half eagle series (1839) and a two year subtype in the eagle series (1838 and 1839) that are collected alongside the issues produced in 1840 and later and whose numbers have been combined throughout the course of this study.

Mintage figures for both No Motto half eagles and eagles can be somewhat misleading. Some of the Philadelphia issues from the 1840’s and 1850’s have mintages that approach 1 million. All told, 9,114,483 No Motto half eagles were struck as well as 5,259,528 eagles. Given these figures, you would expect No Motto half eagles and eagles to be somewhat common. This is most certainly not the case, however, primarily because of massive meltings that began as early as the Civil War and which continued up through the 1960’s. In my experience, the survival rate for No Motto gold is well below 2% and in the case of high grade coins, it is a fraction of this.

In preparing this analysis, I’ve decided to use PCGS’ figures exclusively. I’m not endorsing one grading service over the other but merely feel that PCGS has a “cleaner” population report with more accurate figures. That said, it should be stressed that the figures used below include a number of resubmissions and they tend to become less accurate as grades increase (and values grow in spread). I will make note of this as we look at the numbers.

I. No Motto Half Eagles

Total Graded: 11,213 Circulated Grades: 9,952 (88.75%) Uncirculated Grades: 1,261 (11.24%) MS60 to MS62: 870 (7.75%) MS63: 230 (2.05%) MS64: 136 (1.21%) MS65: 19 (0.16%) MS 66 and better: 6 (0.05%)

So what can we learn from these numbers? The first thing that I find interesting is that only 11% or so of the No Motto half eagles graded by PCGS are Uncirculated. When we factor in resubmissions, the actual number is probably quite a bit lower; probably around 8% or so of the total coins. Given my experience, this makes sense. In comparison to early half eagles and the later With Motto Liberty Head issues, a very small percentage of the No Motto coinage survived in comparatively high grades.

The next thing that is noticeable is how the numbers drop off once the MS63 level is reached. PCGS has graded 391 No Motto half eagles in MS63 or better (just 3.47% of the total population graded) and my guess is that once you factor in resubmissions and other anomalies, the total number of PCGS graded No Motto half eagles in MS63 or higher is more likely 250 or so pieces.

These numbers get more interesting when we look at them a bit more carefully and note that three dates (the 1847, 1852 and 1861) have a combined population of 137 in MS63 and better. This works out to over 35% of the total population of all higher grade No Motto half eagles. If you remove these three dates from the total population, suddenly all No Motto half eagles in MS63 seem a lot scarcer.

The specific grade that I think is most inaccurate in the PCGS population report is MS64. In looking through the report, I see such figures as eight 1841’s having been graded, eight 1845’s, eight 1858’s and forty (!) 1861’s. Given the fact that a PCGS MS64 1861 half eagle is worth around $12,500 and an MS65 is worth over $30,000 it is no wonder that at least a few very high end coins have been resubmitted over and over in an attempt to graduate to a higher grade. My guess is that the PCGS figure in MS64 (a total of 136) is inflated by at least one-third and that the actual number is more likely in the 75-95 range.

Ironically, I think the PCGS MS65 and MS66 numbers are pretty accurate. Once someone gets a No Motto half eagle in an MS65 or MS66 holder it is clearly to their benefit to get the population figure accurate for a specific date. There are supposedly three 1847 half eagles graded MS66 by PCGS and I think this seems high by at least one but I can account for nearly every other MS66 and most of the 19 coins graded MS65 as well.

Now, let’s look at the figures for No Motto eagles:

II. No Motto Eagles

Total Graded: 7,155 Circulated Grades: 6,832 (95.48%) Uncirculated Grades: 323 (4.51%) MS60 to MS62: 236 (3.29%) MS63: 46 (0.64%) MS64: 34 (0.47%) MS65: 3 (0.04%) MS 66 and better: 4 (0.05%)

Given the ratio of original mintage figures, the total numbers graded for the two No Motto types makes sense. It also makes sense to me that well over 90% of all No Motto eagles are circulated. In fact, I think that once you look at the resubmission factor for this type, the actual number of unique PCGS graded Uncirculated No Motto eagles is less than 250 coins. And when you take this a step further and consider that many of the coins graded MS60, MS61 and even MS62 show rub and may not be considered “new” by conservative specialists, you are probably talking about a pool of 125-150 No Motto eagles in PCGS holders that are unequivocally Uncirculated.

I have long believed that virtually any No Motto eagle is rare in Uncirculated. Take a coin like the 1847. This issue has a mintage figure of 862,258. I personally doubt if more than 1,500-2,000 are known but the great majority are well-circulated. PCGS has graded twenty-six in Uncirculated but five in MS60 and four in MS61 (grades that may or may not be truly Uncirculated) as well as thirteen in MS62 (which is clearly inflated by resubmissions). This supposedly “common” coin is actually quite rare in Uncirculated. I doubt if more than four or five are known that accurately grade MS63 or better.

In MS63 or better, No Motto eagles are very rare; far more so than their half eagle counterparts. My best estimate is that only a few dozen are known in properly graded MS63 and MS64 combined. Gems are incredibly rare. PCGS has graded just two coins in MS65 and another three in MS66 (remarkably, each of these is an actual coin and not just a bunch of resubmissions!). In my experience, No Motto eagles (and half eagles) are rarer in MS63 and higher grades than Heraldic Eagle reverse issues of these denominations.

I also think that high grade No Motto gold coinage is extremely cheap right now, especially when compared to the older half eagles and eagles. As an example, you can buy a nice common date PCGS MS63 half eagle from the late 1840’s or early 1850’s now for around $7,500-8,500. A common date MS64 should be available for $12,500-15,000. No Motto eagles in this grade range are more expensive but they are still not out of the price range of many collectors. A PCGS MS63 “common date” should be available for $15,000-20,000 and an MS64 will run $25,000-30,000+. When you look at what other far less rare types are selling for these days, I think these levels seem very reasonable!

"Originality"

“Originality.” It’s one of the most overused terms in all of numismatics. And it’s one of the most misunderstood as well. Given the choice, I believe that most people would rather own an “original” coin instead of one that has clearly had its appearance changed in recent years. With the help of some good quality images, I’d like to show some of the characteristics that I equate with “originality” and offer some suggestions on how to judge if a coin is original or not. The first coin that we are going to look at is an 1844-D quarter eagle graded AU55 by NGC. (Disclosure: this coin is currently in my inventory and it is currently for sale. I am not using this coin as an example in the hope that someone will buy it as I am certain someone will and I don’t need to go to this much trouble to sell it. I am using it to illustrate this report because I believe it represents what I believe is complete originality.)

One other quick topic before we review this 1844-D quarter eagle. My definition of an “original” coin is one that appears to have never been cleaned, lightened or in any way altered. I would be quick to point out that the flaw in this definition is that, of course, there is no way to make such a comment without having had access to this particular coin at all times since 1844. There is always the possibility that, in the 1850s or the 1860s (or even the 1960s), it may have been lightly cleaned. But there are some things to look for on a coin that I think gives a reasonably good assurance that it hasn’t been messed with. The most obvious is hairlines. If a coin has been improperly cleaned at one time, it is going to show hairlines. These may range from subtle to very obvious. If a coin has nice seemingly “original” color but it shows noticeable hairlines, this probably means that it was cleaned years ago and has subsequently retoned. Such a coin may have a natural appearance but, from the standpoint of semantics, it can’t truly be called “original.” You can also look for areas of cloudiness or haze. If a coin has these, the chances are good that something has been applied to the surfaces at one time.

In looking at this coin, there are a few points to note. The first is its depth of coloration. Take a look at the color on the obverse and the reverse and note how the hues in the fields are richer than in the protected areas. On coins with natural color this is generally going to be the case. On a coin that may have been dipped at one time, you are going to see the opposite; the color tends to be lighter at the centers and deeper at the peripheries. Also, note how on this 1844-D quarter eagle there is color present even on the high spots and relief detail. A coin that has been cleaned or dipped typically lacks color on these areas as they are the first places that the original color is lost. Finally, note the depth and intensity of the color. On natural coins, the color is “sharp” in hue and depth. On dipped or cleaned coins, the color tends to be “fuzzier” and less intense.

Secondly, note the patches of dirt or “crust” in the protected areas, especially on the letters in the reverse legend. On coins that have been lightened, this dirt is typically lost.

The third thing to note requires some specific knowledge of a series. This 1844-D quarter eagle has the “right” color for the issue. If you become familiar with the Dahlonega quarter eagle series, you will learn that the original color for the 1844-D tends to be either “bright yellow-gold, light orange-gold or dark coppery-gold.” (this quote is taken directly from my book on Dahlonega coinage, page 98). As you learn more about Dahlonega coins and see more examples in person, you learn what the “right” color is for each specific issue. The color for this 1844-D is as “right” as on any example that I have ever seen.

The second coin that we are going to look at is an 1840-O quarter eagle that is graded AU58 by NGC. This is another piece that is currently in my inventory and the reason that I purchased it was because I thought it had uncommonly attractive and original coloration.

On this coin, note the depth of the color. As they should be, the hues are deeper in the fields than at the borders. The color is very bold in its hue and can be seen with the same degree of intensity on the high spots as in the fields.

On page 52 of my book on New Orleans gold coinage I state that the color of the 1840-O quarter eagle is “a distinctive medium to deep yellow-gold.” The hues on this specific example are, in my opinion, more of a deep green-gold with reddish overtones. Why the discrepancy from the description in my book? This is a hard question to answer but my guess has to do with how this coin was stored. To me, it has the look of a piece that may have been housed in an old manila envelope or even in a leather pouch.

If you do not know this series well, you are probably thinking that this coin exhibits a considerable amount of wear at the centers and that this lightness may, in fact, be signs of an old cleaning. This is incorrect. Many 1840-O quarter eagles are weakly struck at the obverse and reverse center (this specific coin actually has a fairly decent overall strike) and have a slightly “sunken” look as a result. Although it is hard to tell from the image, this coin shows natural coloration even in the vertical shield lines which is another good indicator of its originality.

Coins that are not original often have foreign substances applied to them in an attempt to hide imperfections such as obvious marks or strong hairlines. The foreign substance(s) may not be visible at the time the coin is sent to a grading service but it usually becomes noticeable after time has passed and its chemical composition has changed. Notice on this 1840-O quarter eagle how all the marks on the surfaces are plainly visible and nothing is being “hidden.”

Let’s look at one final coin that I believe is totally original. This is an 1856-S Type Two gold dollar. This is an issue that is very hard to find with original color and surfaces, especially in higher grades. There is strong motivation to make a properly graded AU58 magically become an MS60 or an MS61 as evidenced by the fact that Trends jumps from $6,500 in AU58 to $12,000 in MS60.

The first thing to note about this 1856-S gold dollar is the depth and evenness of the coloration. There isn’t a coin doctor alive who has figured out (at least yet...) how to make color on a 150+ year old gold coin look 150+ years old. Notice the warmth and the depth of the color that this coin has--that’s something that just can’t be faked. Notice also that there is a good deal of luster peeking out through the depth of the aforementioned coloration. This luster can be seen most easily in the image from around 9:00 to 12:00 on the obverse border, alongside the portrait, at the left reverse and inside the wreath. Notice as well how consistent the coloration is on the obverse and reverse. Often times when someone has recolored a coin, they are lazy and only enhance one side or if they do both sides, one is done better than the other.

If you are not familiar with the strike of 1856-S Type Two dollars, you are probably wondering why the hair around the face appears so flat. This has to do with the design of the Type Two gold dollar and it is the exact reason why this design was discontinued in 1856. The highest spot on the obverse was exactly opposite the highest spot on the reverse and this made it nearly impossible for Type Two gold dollars to be well struck. In fact, this 1856-S is actually very well struck by the standards of the date and the variety and it lacks the pronounced central weakness and heavy clashmarks that are so often seen on examples of this short-lived type.

One last point before I close. I have mentioned time and time again that you can not accurately grade a coin based on an image. But I do think you can get a good idea if a coin is original or not, provided that the quality of the image is as good as the ones on my website or on a few other dealer and auction websites. Please note that this article was NOT intended to try and teach you how to grade. It was intended to give you an idea of what I believe are very original coins and how such coins should look.

Grading Advice for Coin Collectors

More than ever, it is extremely important for coin collectors to learn how to grade AND to become knowledgeable in the field(s) in which they collect. Now this is easy for me to say. I’m a full-time coin dealer and have been since 1982. 25+ years of daily dealing has helped me learn how to grade pretty well and has made me very knowledgeable in a number of areas. But how does a collector with a full-time job, a family and real world responsibilities become a capable numismatist?

Learning how to grade and how to tell the difference between nice coins and not-so-nice coins is an important facet of enjoying the hobby. Because of the existence of PCGS and NGC, the newer generations of collectors have had a “crutch” to use when it comes to grading and, I believe, some collectors have taken shortcuts when it comes to proficiency this area. PCGS and NGC provide a great safety net as far as grading goes but there is clearly no substitute for personal expertise.

So how does a new collector learn how to grade? I think the first thing that is important to realize is that grading is a step-by-step process and that the first forays a collector takes need to be baby steps. In other words, a new collector is not going to be able to tell the difference between a PR67 and PR68 Barber quarter right away. It is far more likely that he will understand the difference between a PR64 and a PR65 than a PR67 and a PR68 as the differences on lower grade coins are more quantifiable (a PR64 coin has hairlines or marks that are easy to see while a PR67 might only have a single hairline that is very well-hidden).

I have a few suggestions for beginning collectors in regards to learning how to grade. The first is to immediately choose an area to specialize in. It is far easier to learn how to grade a single series (such as Barber quarters or New Orleans double eagles) than it is to try and learn all U.S. coins at once. The second suggestion I have is to try and find a mentor. When I was a young collector, I was fortunate to find two older, more experienced dealers who were incredibly helpful in teaching me how to grade the series I was collecting. Another suggestion is to look at as many coins as you possibly can—in person. You WILL NOT be able to learn how to grade from viewing images. I’ve got a few suggestions that relate to this which I will discuss below. A final suggestion is to begin collecting an area in which grade does not matter all that much. In other words, I don’t think a complete neophyte has any business trying to buy PR65 and finer Proof gold as he is beginning to learn how to grade. He would do much better choosing an area where the learning curve is easier—and far less costly - and then graduating to more difficult areas as he becomes more confident in his ability.

As I mentioned above, I have a few specific suggestions to make as far as improving your grading skills. The first, as I said before, is to look at as many coins as possible. I can’t think of a better place to do this than a major coin show and the two shows that come to mind are FUN and Summer ANA. If I were a collector I would make it a point of attending both shows and spending at least one full day at each looking at the coins in the auctions. Let’s say you collect Liberty Head double eagles. In the FUN or ANA sales you are likely to have the chance to view hundreds and hundreds of coins in a huge variety of grades. You can make the viewing process more of a challenge by covering the grades on each slab and testing yourself as if the coins were ungraded.

If a specialized collection in your area comes up for sale, try extra hard to view the lots. If I were a collector of, say, Dahlonega gold coinage, I would want to look at the coins being sold in an important specialized collection.

I mentioned trying to find a mentor. Let me add that in the context we are discussing, I would amend this to finding a mentor who can grade (!) If you could look at a specialized collection of Dahlonega gold coins with a very knowledgeable mentor, imagine what an incredible learning experience this would be.

In my opinion, the concept of grading and connoisseurship are more related than most people realize. To better understand grading and the level of preservation of a coin, it is very important to understand what makes an object beautiful and what makes it aesthetically desirable. A good connoisseurship class, offered by a museum or an art school, could impart some real insights.

Every year, the ANA offers a beginning and an advanced grading class at their Summer Seminar. I think these are very helpful for the beginning collector, especially as they offer hands-on experience and a chance to work with some top professional graders. The only problem with these classes is that they tend to focus on more basic coins like Morgan dollars and Walking Liberty half dollars. If you collect Charlotte or Dahlonega gold these classes are not going to address these specific coins.

Getting involved with an online group such as the PCGS or NGC message boards has some benefit to the new collector but I really like the idea of a specialized group. I am aware of specialized groups that post images and threads about Seated coinage, Bust coinage and Colonials and this seems to me to be a great place to learn about grading.

Two final thoughts. As a collector learns how to grade, I think it is more important to learn how to tell the difference between something that is choice and original (versus cleaned and/or processed) versus whether a coin is a 64 or a 65. The best way to learn about originality is to, obviously, look at fresh, original coins. These aren’t easy to find any more but truly fresh deals do pop-up at auction from time to time and they are invaluable “time capsules” for the specialist. Or, look at coins in museum collections. As an example, the gold coins in the ANA’s Harry Bass Museum collection are wonderfully fresh and time spent carefully looking at the surfaces and coloration of the pieces on display is invaluable.

I recently had a discussion with a good client who told me that the whole grading process was disheartening to him and that he had decided to sell his high-priced coins which had a good percentage of their value determined by their grade. He had decided to focus on less expensive coins in which one point on the grading scale wasn’t worth thousands (or tens of thousands) of dollars. I can see his point. If you find the whole grading process to be silly or too difficult to fathom, try and collect something like Tokens or Medals where the beauty and rarity of an object determines its rarity; not just its degree of preservation.

The 1864-S Half Eagle

Anyone with a passing knowledge of United States gold coinage is aware of the three rarest issues from the San Francisco mint: the unique 1870-S Three Dollar gold piece, the exceedingly rare 1854-S half eagle and the very rare 1854-S quarter eagle. But not everyone realizes what the next rarest gold issue is from this mint. Read on for the answer. The rarest collectible gold coin from the San Francisco mint is the unheralded 1864-S half eagle. I regard this as the second rarest collectible Liberty Head half eagle after the 1875 and the 1864-S also has the added value of not being available in Proof as the 1875 Philadelphia half eagle is.

There were a total of 3,888 half eagles produced at the San Francisco mint in 1864. While this is certainly a low mintage figure, it doesn’t really stand out in the Liberty Head half eagle series. In fact, there are 11 issues with lower production figures (1861-D, 1863, 1865, 1869, 1871, 1872, 1874, 1875, 1876, 1877 and 1887). Unlike the majority of these ultra-low mintage issues, the 1864-S has an incredibly low survival rate. In my opinion, there are about 20 examples known in all grades.

Not only is the 1864-S rare in terms of overall rarity, it is also extremely rare in high grades. Of the 20 or so known, I estimate that at least half grade EF40 or lower. The 1864-S is extremely rare in properly graded EF45 and it is exceptionally rare in About Uncirculated with an estimated four or five known. There is also one remarkable Uncirculated 1864-S half eagle in existence which will be discussed in greater detail below.

According to the most recent population figures from PCGS, they have graded a total of 14 examples in all grades including three in AU (two in AU50 and one in AU53) as well as a single example in Uncirculated. NGC has a total population of ten coins with three in AU (one each in AU53, AU55 and AU58). I have personally seen two or three coins that I regard as AU. One of these is Bass III: 500 ($23,000; as PCGS AU53) which I am fairly certain is the same piece as the NGC AU58 which is now in an eastern dealer’s inventory. Another was sold back in the 1980’s in a PCGS EF45 holder but which would certainly grade AU50 or better by today’s standards.

The 1864-S half eagle is easily distinguishable by its obverse strike. This includes weakness on the stars at the left and considerable flatness on the hair at the top of the head, the bun and the tip of the coronet. The curls around the face are usually very weak as well. Interestingly, this weakness does not fully correspond to the reverse. The upper portion of the reverse is quite sharply detailed while the lower portion is not quite as sharp with weakness noted on the arrowheads and arrow feathers, the talons and the lower part of the mintmark. The surfaces are usually abraded and may show light mint-made striations in the fields. The luster tends to be dull and grainy and most are worn to the point that little—if any—natural mint luster is present. The natural color is a medium to deep orange-gold. As one might expect, this is an incredibly hard issue to find with original color and surfaces and I doubt if more than three or four original pieces remain.

As I mentioned above, there is one truly remarkable 1864-S half eagle known. This piece is graded MS65 by PCGS and I think the grade is extremely conservative as the coin is virtually “as struck.” This coin first surfaced in 1956 when it sold in the Melish sale for a whopping $70. It was purchased by the Norwebs and it remained in their collection until 1987 when it was purchased at auction by Harry Bass for $110,000. It was last sold in 1999 when it realized what I thought was, at the time, a very reasonable $176,000 in the Bass II auction. It was purchased by a Southern collector who, to the best of my knowledge, does not own any other San Francisco Liberty Head half eagles and, for that matter, may not have more than a handful of Liberty Head gold coins from any mint in his holdings. To his credit, he realized what a great coin this Gem 1864-S half eagle was and he was determined to purchase it, whatever it took.

In looking back at my Bass II catalog, I noted that my reaction when I saw the coin for a second time (in 1999) was “world’s coolest San Francisco gold coin.” This half eagle is certainly not worth anything close to an 1854-S but it is probably my single favorite San Francisco gold coin of any date or denomination. It is the only known Uncirculated example of an extremely rare issue and it just happens to be a Gem. One has to wonder how it survived. My guess is that it was an assay coin that was sent to Philadelphia and kept by someone there as a souvenir.

Despite the extreme rarity of this date, it is still relatively affordable. The last example to sell at auction was a decent PCGS EF45 which brought $19,550 when Heritage auctioned it as Lot 3489 in their 2006 FUN sale. Coin World Trends for an AU50 is $45,000 which, again, seems pretty reasonable when one considers that only six examples have been slabbed in AU50 or better between the two services combined.

Attack of the 1839-C Quarter Eagles!

At the Heritage 2008 FUN sale it was the Attack of the 1839-C Quarter Eagles as there were no less than a dozen (!) examples of this popular Classic Head issue available for sale. How did these coins do and what nuggets o’ information can be gleaned from the auction results? The 1839-C quarter eagles in question ranged in grade from a low of PCGS VF30 to a high of NGC MS61 and included ten coins in NGC holders, one in a PCGS holder and one orphan in an ANACS net AU50 holder that had been cleaned.

Two interesting things can be determined right away from the statement made in the paragraph above. The first is that 1839-C quarter eagles are pretty difficult to define as “rare” if eleven examples appear in one sale (although if you read the rest of this blog I contend that a certain type of 1839-C quarter eagle is, in fact, quite rare...) and that secondly, NGC seems to have the market cornered on this date. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions about this (cue raised brow...)

One last thing before we analyze. If I were a consignor I’m not sure I’d be thrilled that my 1839-C had to share the spotlight with eleven of its cousins. But, to Heritage’s everlasting credit, these giant auctions continually prove to me that there are enough people looking at the coins that quality typically trumps quantity.

An interesting place to begin is with Lots 3809 and 3810. The former was in an old green label holder and was called VF30 by PCGS (I graded it AU50 or thereabouts but noted in my catalog that it had been cleaned at one time) while the latter was in an NGC 45 holder and was, in my opinion, pretty marginal for the grade. The PCGS VF30 coin sold for $4887.50 while the NGC EF45 brought $4,600. This result wasn’t really a surprise but it doesn’t point out that when someone analyzes the Heritage auction archives they should assume that the 1839-C quarter eagle that they own in VF30 is worth $4,887.50.

The next pair to compare are the two examples graded AU53 by NGC, Lots 3812 and 3813. The result of these coins was interesting to say the least. The former sold for $20,700 while the latter brought $5,750. How is it possible for two coins graded the same by NGC to bring such a gigantic difference? The coin that sold for $20,700 was gorgeous. It was in an old “fatty holder,” had lovely original color and I thought it was a very solid AU58. As nice as the coin was, I was pretty surprised it sold for essentially MS60 to MS61 money. The other AU53 in the sale? It wasn’t very nice and the fact that it had to compete against the Lovely Lot 3812 couldn’t have helped.

No less than four NGC AU58’s were in the sale and every one of them brought $12,650. With Trends at $18,000, this seems a little bit cheap, no? Well actually I think the numbers were pretty right on when you consider that all four of the coins were not exactly high end for the grade. I was a bit surprised that Lot 3085 sold for the same as Lot 3082-3084. Lot 3085 was what I call on “OOG” coin. This acronym stands for “original overgraded.” Which means that although I didn’t think the coin passed the Winter Test as an AU58, it did at least have natural color and a decent overall appearance for the issue. Had this been the only 1839-C in AU58 in the sale perhaps it might have brought an extra 5-10%.

Neither the MS60 or MS61 examples in the auction sold. I didn’t think either one was very nice and both were reserved too high; never a great combination.

Remember earlier in this blog when I mentioned that despite there being twelve examples in the sale, a certain type of 1839-C quarter eagle was still rare? I think the fact that only one of these twelve coins had original coloration and was high end for the issue says something important. Most 1839-C quarter eagles have been cleaned or processed at one time and the one-in-twelve ratio for originality seems accurate in my experience.

So what did I learn about this issue as the result of The Attack of the 1839-C Quarter Eagles? Well, for one I learned that NGC AU58 examples are worth $12,650. I also learned that nice, original coins still bring great prices even when “lost” in huge sales and when competing against multiples examples of the same date. And I learned that if I had a nice 1839-C quarter eagle in an old holder, I would resist temptation and sell it “as is.”