Superior Pre-Long Beach Elite Auction

In their recent pre-Long Beach Elite Auction, Superior sold a nice set of Carson City half eagles and eagles. These coins were interesting due to the fact that they were in old green label PCGS holders and, as one might expect, a number of coins appeared to have considerable upgrade potential. The half eagles were led by an 1870-CC graded EF40 by PCGS. It was notable for its excellent strike and seemed to me to be close to an AU50 grade by today’s standards. It sold for $25,300 (note that all prices in this blog include the 15% buyer’s premium charged by the auction company). One of the most undergraded coins in the half eagle collection was an 1871-CC in an old EF40 holder. I really liked this coin a lot and it brought $16,100. An 1872-CC graded EF40 by NGC was bid to $14,950.

Not all green label holder coins are “lock upgrades.” An 1873-CC graded VF35 by PCGS had the detail of an EF45 to AU50 but it had been harshly cleaned at one time. Despite this, it brought a strong $12,650 to a “lucky” mail bidder. Other interesting results included a PCGS EF40 1875-CC at $9,200, an uncommonly nice PCGS VF35 1876-CC (I graded it AU50 by today’s standards) at $9,488 and a pretty 1877-CC in PCGS EF45 for $9,775.

I personally liked the Eagles in this collection better than the half eagles and one of my absolute favorites was a perfect, crusty PCGS EF40 1870-CC which was bid to $39,100. A lovely 1871-CC in NGC EF45 with dark, crusty surfaces sold for $14,950 while an 1872-CC in NGC AU50 was bid up to a surprising $26,450. One of the rarest dates in the series is the 1873-CC and the example in this collection was a superb NGC EF45 which had the appearance of an AU50 to AU53. It sold for $27,600.

Another Carson City eagle in this group that I thought had great eye appeal was a PCGS EF40 1875-CC with deep, dark green-gold color. It sold for a solid $14,950. I was not all that wild about a PCGS AU50 1878-CC but at least two other bidders disagreed with me and it sold for a strong $29,900. Probably my favorite eagle in the sale was a PCGS AU53 1879-CC that was one of just a handful I have seen with original color and surfaces. It sold for $35,650.

Two other Carson City eagles in this sale worthy of a quick mention were a nice 1883-CC in PCGS AU55 that sold for $6,900 and a crusty, original 1893-CC in NGC AU58 that was bid to a strong $7,475.

Overall, this was an interesting group of coins. Virtually every coin in the Carson City collection sold to knowledgeable dealers and I would be surprised if any of these remain in their current holders. This was a sale that a collector bidding strictly on Internet images and catalog descriptions had simply no chance for success, unless it was for a “trap” coin like the 1873-CC half eagle mentioned above.

How Does the Increase in the Price of Gold Affect the U.S. Rare Coin Market?

As I write this, gold has hit a high not seen since 1979-1980 and it is flirting with the $750 mark. How is this run-up in prices affecting the United States rare gold coin market? If you have a position in generic issues (such as St. Gaudens double eagles) you’ve made yourself a nice chunk of change these last few weeks. MS64’s have risen from the mid to high $700’s up to the mid $900’s and MS65’s have seen an increase of around $250 per coin as well.

But if you are a reader of my raregoldcoins.com blogs chances are good that you do not play the generics market. You own “real” coins; issues like New Orleans double eagles or Charlotte gold dollars or Carson City half eagles. How are these rarer issues being affected by the new record levels in the gold market?

In a word (or three) they really haven’t. One of the fallacies of a rising gold market is that anything that is yellow rises in prices when the market shoots up. This simply is not the case. An EF45 1853-D half eagle will rise in price as the result of increased demand, not because its intrinsic worth is now an additional $25-50. Most of the brand new buyers of physical gold (as least for now) are strictly investors and they do not even know what an 1853-D half eagle is.

New gold buyers generally follow a predictable progression. They begin by purchasing gold stocks or, perhaps, modern bullion coins like American Eagles or Krugerrands. For every 1,000 buyers, perhaps 5% graduate to generic issues such as Saints or Indian Head eagles. And of these buyers, a small number may, after some time, become aware of a coin such as the aforementioned 1853-D half eagle. But this is a lengthy process and today’s new buyers of gold may not get involved in numismatics for years, if ever.

So this is, in my opinion, why the current run-up in gold prices impact on the typical coin in my inventory is wishful thinking. I’d love to report that the phone is ringing off the hook with new investors screaming for Dahlonega half eagles but this is just not the case (not to mention that if anyone does call me regarding coins as an investment, my blunt answers tend to send them running for the hills…)

One thing that is a real positive about the run up in gold prices is that this clearly does focus a lot of fresh attention on gold and on gold coins. And any good publicity about gold coins can’t be bad, right?

I’ve had many people in the last few days ask me what my take is on gold in the short and long term. I don’t claim to have any profound insights in this area. I’m probably the world’s leading expert on branch mint gold coins but when it comes to geo-political thought and macroeconomics I’m just another Hack with a Keyboard. My opinion (for what’s its worth) is that as long as we have cheapened the dollar to its currently absurdly low levels, gold will become more and more of a hedge. I could easily see it go to $800-900 in the coming months. I’ll personally be selling into the market once it reaches these levels but I think the days of sub-$500 to $600 gold are long gone; probably for good. I would suggest that everyone own some gold as it seems like a safe place to put your paper dollars right now, especially given the alternatives.

Low Mintage Philadelphia Double Eagles

One of my favorite groups of coins are the low mintage Philadelphia double eagles produced in 1881, 1882, 1885, 1886 and 1891. During this five year period, only 5,911 business strikes were produced; an average of just 1,182 pieces per year. Despite the obvious rarity of these coins, they are still overlooked by many collectors. A total of 2,199 business strike 1881 double eagles were produced. Estimates of the surviving population range from a low of 25-35 to a high of 35-40. This date is usually seen in the EF40 to AU50 grade range and it becomes extremely rare in AU55 and above. To the best of my knowledge there are just two examples known in Uncirculated. One of these, ex: Heritage 1/07: 3203 (graded MS61 by PCGS) sold for a record $138,000. The other, ex: Goldberg 5/05: 1086 ($69,000), Heritage 6/04: 349 ($57,500), ANR 3/04: 1067 ($39,100; as PCGS MS60) is now graded MS61 by PCGS.

Price levels for this date in Uncirculated have, obviously, increased dramatically in recent years. But this date seems like very good value in EF and AU grades. Trends is $18,000 in EF45, $25,000 in AU50 and $30,000 in AU55. Given the fact that the last Uncirculated 1881 to trade brought more than double Trends (which is $60,000 in MS60), my feeling is that EF and AU Trends are considerably out of date.

In 1882, the mintage figure for business strike double eagles produced at the Philadelphia mint dropped to a record low 571 coins. I regard this as the single rarest Type Three double eagle in business strike form and the number known is probably in the range of 20-25 coins. I am aware of two or three in Uncirculated. The finest is owned by a prominent Midwestern collector and is ex: Dallas Bank Collection (Stack’s/Sotheby’s 10/01: 88) where it brought $86,250. It is now in a PCGS MS61 holder. In January 2007, Heritage sold a PCGS MS60 for a whopping $138,000. This coin had first appeared in their 2000 ANA auction where it went unsold.

While far less underappreciated than the 1881, the 1882 is still an excellent value when compared to the rare date Type One double eagles from New Orleans. The 1882 is just a bit less rare than the celebrated 1854-O and 1856-O double eagles yet it sells for about a fifth of the price of these two issues in AU grades.

In 1883 and 1884, only Proof double eagles were produced in Philadelphia. Business strikes resumed in 1885 but only 751 pieces were struck.

When I first became interested in double eagles (back in the early to mid 1980’s), this date was almost impossible to find and it was considered a major rarity on par with the 1881 and 1882. It seems that a small hoard reached the market in the late 1980’s/early 1990’s and today the 1885 is a bit more available in circulated grades than one might assume given its incredibly low mintage figure. I think around four to five dozen are known with most in the AU50 to AU55 range. There may be as many as eight or nine known in Uncirculated with most in the MS60 to MS62 range.

There are two known in MS63. The first, which was graded by PCGS, is owned by a prominent Midwestern collector and it is the finest known. The second, also in a PCGS MS63 holder, is ex: Bowers and Merena 2003 ANA: 4291 ($50,600), Kingswood 2/00: 882 ($39,100).

The 1885 is the most affordable of these five issues. I recently sold a nice EF45 example in the mid-$10’s and have handled two attractive AU58’s within the last two years in the $25,000-30,000 range.

Production of business strike double eagles in Philadelphia shot up to a “whopping” 1,000 coins in 1886. This date has a much lower survival rate than the 1885 and it is actually close to the 1881 and 1882 in terms of overall rarity. At one time, it was believed that as few as 15-18 pieces were known. I feel that the correct number is more in the 25-30 range. This includes a greater number of lower grade coins than the 1881, 1882 and 1885; the 1886 is sometimes seen in the VF-EF range.

There are at least three 1886 double eagles known in Uncirculated. The finest by a vast margin is the PCGS MS63 owned by a Midwestern collector. There is also a PCGS MS61 that was last sold as Lot 7845 in the Heritage March 1998 auction (where it brought $35,075) and a PCGS MS60 which I have not seen or been able to trace its pedigree.

The price appreciation for this date has been pretty amazing in the last few years. As an example, in January 2004, Heritage sold a PCGS AU55 example for $24,150. In January 2007, another PCGS AU55 brought $69,575. It is also interesting to note that Trends for this date in AU55 is still just $40,000.

After a year in which only Proof double eagles were struck at the Philadelphia mint (1887), production of business strikes increased dramatically from 1888 to 1890. But in 1891, production was severely curtailed and only 1,390 business strikes were made.

For many years, the 1891 was regarded as the major sleeper in the Type Three series by gold coin experts. Only 35-45 coins are known but this issue traded in the $12,500-17,500 range in AU grades until recently. The 1891 is, curiously, as rare as the more celebrated 1882 and 1886 in Uncirculated. I am aware of just two that qualify as such. The best is the amazing NGC MS64 from the Dallas Bank Collection that is owned by the same Midwestern collector who is mentioned frequently throughout this blog. This coin realized $80,500 when it was first offered in 2001. It brought $155,200 five years later when Heritage offered it in their January 2005 auction.

This group of five Type Three Liberty Head double eagles is not as well known as The Fab Five St. Gaudens double eagles or as popular as the rare Type One issues from New Orleans but it is a remarkable and highly challenging group that is clearly worth careful examination by the serious, deep-pocketed collector.

Scarcity of Branch Mint Issues

When examining surviving populations of branch mint gold coins it is easy to forget just how scarce some of these issues are in higher grades. I’d like to demonstrate a little numismatic “magic trick” and turn 200 into 20 (or less) right in front of your very eyes. Let’s take a random issue and play around with survival numbers. How about the 1848-C quarter eagle?

The 1848-C is a date that doesn’t get much attention. It’s certainly no big deal, rarity-wise, in lower grades but it is scarce in the lower AU grades, very rare in the higher AU grades and exceedingly rare (and overlooked) in Uncirculated.

A total of 16,788 1848-C quarter eagles were produced. As with most Charlotte quarter eagles, it has a survival rate of around 1%-2% of the original mintage figure. I estimate that 150-200 are known, although this figure does not take into account what are probably a number of low grade and/or damaged specimens. Of these 150-200 coins, I estimate that at least 70-100 grade VF or below by my standards (which, by the way are not necessarily the same as NGC’s or PCGS’) and another 56-70 grade EF40 to EF45. All of a sudden the population of higher grade 1848-C quarter eagles has shrunk considerably.

I believe that 22-26 examples of this date are known in the various AU grades. That seems like a reasonably decent number of coins; certainly a large enough pool of coins for the casual collector to choose from, right? This number does not take into account that many of the 22-26 coins have problems. Certainly at least half of these two dozen or so coins have been cleaned, processed or unnaturally brightened. Suddenly, the available population of nice higher grade 1848-C quarter eagles has been reduced to maybe a dozen coins.

But these dozen coins include another potential monkey wrench which might thwart the collector seeking a nice 1848-C quarter eagle. If you read my book on Charlotte quarter eagles, you’ll learn that this issue is notorious for poor strikes and that a number were produced from severely swollen dies which leave the coins looking like a mess. So now these dozen coins might now be reduced down to as few as seven or eight nice, original (or “original-ish”) AND decently struck 1848-C quarter eagles. Assuming that there are at least four or five collectors assembling circulated Charlotte quarter eagle sets by date, this means as few as three or four pieces might become available in, say, a two or three year period. I’d say that qualifies as a pretty rare coin.

These numbers do not apply to all branch mint gold issues. There are certain dates that, for a variety of reasons, have a much higher overall survival rate or because of hoards have a higher percentage of high grade coins among the survivors.

A few examples of branch mint dates that have uncommonly high survival rates include the 1854-D $3.00 (I estimate that as much as 10% of the original mintage figure exists) and the 1838-D $5.00. There are generally pretty obvious reasons why issues like these have higher survival rates than usual. In the case of the 1854-D $3.00 it is because this is a one-year type coin and the novelty factor of a Dahlonega Three Dollar gold piece probably caused a number to be saved as souvenirs by curious locals. The same is probably the case with the 1838-D $5.00. This is a first-year-of-issue and it seems almost certain that a few were saved as curiosities by Dahlonegonians. (By the way, I just made up that word. I wonder if the correct expression isn’t actually Dahlonegites??)

There might also be another reason to consider in regards to high grade rarity for certain branch mint issues. A few dates have had their populations of higher grade pieces swelled by the (possible) existence of hoards. I surmise this to be the case with issues such as the 1857-D and 1858-C quarter eagles and the 1841-D half eagle and know this to be a fact for issues like the 1856-D half eagle.

The bottom line is that many branch mint issues are much, much scarcer in higher grade (say AU55 and above) than their certified populations might suggest. As a rule of thumb, even the “common” issues such as 1849-D gold dollars or 1847-C quarter eagles are far less available in choice AU than one might expect and these issues are certain to get scarcer in the coming years.

State of the Market Report: New Orleans Eagles

A few weeks ago I did a State of the Market Report on New Orleans gold. In that report, I barely touched on Eagles from this mint. Afterwards, I received a number of perturbed emails from readers who wanted to know my thoughts about New Orleans eagles. I hear you loud and clear Unhappy Nawlins Eagle Collectors and this blog’s for you. I’ve written a number of times that I regard New Orleans eagles as the “next best thing” for collectors who can’t afford high quality examples of New Orleans double eagles. But I think this is short-changing what is truly a collectible and very interesting series in its own right.

New Orleans eagles can be neatly divided into two distinct groups: the No Motto series (1841-1860) and the With Motto series (1879-1906). There are twenty–one issues in the former group, sixteen in the latter.

The No Motto series has become extremely popular in the last two years. Collectors have learned that even the common dates (such as the 1847-O and the 1851-O) are, in reality, very scarce to rare in the higher circulated grades and genuinely rare in Uncirculated. Something that I find remarkable is the lack of Uncirculated No Motto eagles that have been available in the last two years. The one exception to this was the coins from the S.S. Republic but the “cream” of this deal was quickly sold and virtually none of the important No Motto eagles from this source have ever re-appeared for sale.

There have been a few very important No Motto eagles sold in the last year or two. The finest known 1843-O, graded MS64 by NGC, brought nearly $60,000 when it was auctioned by Bowers & Merena in 2006 and Heritage sold what I feel may have been the finest known 1857-O (graded AU58 by PCGS but better than this in my opinion) in their October 2006 auction for a touch over $40,000. But for the most part, it has been remarkable how few important No Motto New Orleans eagles have been available since the release of my book on New Orleans gold in the fall of 2006.

My experience in buying No Motto New Orleans eagles at coin shows hasn’t been much different in the last year or two. I have been able to acquire a couple of very interesting coins but, overall, the pickings have been very slim. I see a few dates (1843-O, 1844-O, 1847-O and 1851-O) in AU55 to AU58 but these coins are usually scrubbed and very low end for the grade. The key dates have become exceedingly hard to locate. I’ve owned two 1841-O and two 1859-O eagles in the past year and I am certain I could have sold each of these coins to a long list of eager collectors.

The demand for the keys in the No Motto series is quite high but so is the demand for the second-tier issues such as the 1849-O, 1852-O, 1855-O, 1856-O and 1857-O. Around two months ago, I listed a nice PCGS AU53 example of the 1852-O on my website and within a day I had received seven orders for it. The same would probably be true if I were to list a coin such as a nice EF45 1849-O or an AU55 1856-O. These coins are really scarce and there is clearly a strong demand for them.

The With Motto New Orleans eagles have also increased dramatically in popularity in the last few years. Unlike their No Motto counterparts, there have actually been a number of significant pieces that have been available in the last year or two. In the Stack’s January 2007 auction, I purchased the finest known 1879-O (graded MS61 by NGC) for a client for $52,900 and a Condition Census 1880-O (graded MS61 by NGC) for $16,100. In the 2007 ANA auction, one of the two finest known examples of the 1882-O (graded MS63 by PCGS) sold for $37,375 and in the same auction, a PCGS MS63 1892-O brought $10,350 which is a record price for this issue.

One thing I’ve noticed about the With Motto New Orleans eagles is that higher grade examples of the common dates (1901-O, 1903-O and 1904-O) are not nearly as available as they once were. I used to buy nice PCGS MS63 and NGC MS63 1903-O eagles at nearly every major show I attended. Today, these are still available but not with any degree of regularity. Plus, the few I do see tend to be lower quality pieces that look as if they were recently upgraded from MS62 holders.

My favorite With Motto New Orleans eagle is still the 1883-O. After years and years of being neglected, people are finally recognizing the true rarity of this issue. For some reason, Trends is still far behind on this date and the few examples that I have purchased or know of trading between knowledgeable sources have brought far in excess of published price levels. I fully expect values to continue to rise for this date and would strongly suggest acquiring one posthaste if you are specializing in this series (if you can find one that is...)

My overall perspective on both No Motto and With Motto New Orleans eagles is that they have become very popular and that the demand for the rare dates and high grade examples of the more common issues has soared in the last few years. Collectors are quickly learning that a seemingly mundane coin like an 1845-O in AU55 is actually quite scarce if it is attractive and original. At the high end of the market, there is intense competition for finest known and Condition Census pieces. This is also the case with the key issues from this mint.

The Market for New Orleans Gold

In many respects, I was one of the primary creators of the market for New Orleans gold. As recently as two or three years ago, I was one of the few dealers who maintained a good inventory of choice and rare gold from New Orleans and was certainly giving this market a bigger “push” than my compatriots. So how has the market fared for New Orleans gold in the last few years? Without a great deal of fanfare, I’d have to say that I did a very good job of helping to jumpstart this market. In some ways, it was maybe too good of a job. By this, I mean that I now have a lot of competition on the wholesale side of the market when interesting New Orleans gold becomes available at a show or at auction. The days that I could negotiate for these coins using the strategy that “no one else cares about this O Mint gold coin so you better sell it to me at my number” are long gone. If I pass on a neat coin, there are three or four other dealers in the wings waiting to swoop.

This is probably both good and bad for collectors as well. If you listened to my pleas to buy New Orleans gold a few years ago, you were probably able to purchase some coins at levels that could not be duplicated today. The bad news, though, is a sudden lack of availability.

If you look at what’s been available at major auctions this year in the area of important New Orleans gold, it’s been pretty slim pickings. There were some important half eagles and eagles in the January Stack’s sale and Heritage has sold its share of Condition Census pieces but impatient collectors have probably found 2007 to be a trying year.

I made a strong effort to purchase New Orleans gold at the recent 2007 ANA show in Milwaukee and came home with little to show for my efforts. What’s really frustrating is that I could have sold about ten times the number of New Orleans gold coins that I bought.

Unless I overlooked some hidden stashes of New Orleans gold, the only items that seemed to be available at the show were either common issues such as 1851-O eagles in grades up to and including AU55 or low-end Uncirculated examples of such uninspiring dates as 1893-O half eagles.

Another thing I noted is that price reporting for New Orleans gold is really out of whack right now. Neat coins tend to bring considerably more than CDN Bid or Trends. Examples? In the recent Heritage ANA sale, an 1882-O eagle in PCGS MS63 brought nearly $38,000. CDN Bid is $14,250. In Bowers and Merena’s pre-ANA sale, a PCGS AU55 1854-O double eagle realized nearly $500,000. Trends is $350,000 in this grade.

Prices are also too low for less spectacular New Orleans coins than these two. Examples? I would be very happy to buy multiples examples of eagles such as the 1849-O, 1852-O, 1855-O, 1856-O and 1857-O in EF40 and EF45 at levels near their current Trends valuations.

Would an increase in values bring some good New Orleans coins out of the woodwork? It might shake a few coins out but I’m guessing that the answer is a resounding “no.” I think the reason for this is that there really aren’t many old-time specialized collections of New Orleans gold that were being formed five, ten or twenty years ago. If someone was collecting branch mint gold in years past, the chances were pretty good that they were focused on Carson City, Charlotte or Dahlonega and they ignored New Orleans issues.

What do I see as future Trends for New Orleans gold coins? Let’s take a quick look at each denomination.

Gold Dollars are becoming more and more popular and the upcoming Dave Bowers book on this denomination is certain to create new collectors. Given the brevity of the New Orleans series, I think we’ll see more collectors putting together sets. I personally like the idea of buying Finest Known or Condition Census examples of any date as well as nice, solid examples of the key 1850-O and 1852-O.

The New Orleans quarter eagle series is seeing some increases in popularity. Collectors are probably misled by inflated populations of Uncirculated and About Uncirculated coins. This is a series that $2,000-4,000 per coin still goes a long way. At the ANA I sold a gorgeous 1852-O in NGC AU58 to a collector for $2,000. I think you’d be hard-pressed to find better value in this series than coins like this. I still like the value level of the key 1845-O in EF and AU grades and also like issues such as the 1847-O, 1850-O, 1851-O and 1852-O in accurately graded MS61 and MS62.

1854-O Three Dollar Gold Pieces seem to be all over the place and most of the coins I see are poorly struck and vastly overgraded. That said, I will still buy an AU50 and better piece I see that I truly like. At the Milwaukee ANA I passed on a really nice NGC MS62 at $52,500 that quickly sold to the next person who saw it (I made a mistake and should have bought it...) In Stack’s pre-ANA Milwaukee auction, an NGC MS63, which is the single highest graded 1854-O $3.00, brought a record $115,000.

It’s become very difficult to find interesting New Orleans half eagles. I handled just one really significant piece at the ANA (an 1842-O in NGC AU58 which I sold almost immediately to a collector) and can’t recall any exciting examples in any of the pre-ANA or ANA sales. My guess is that there are a number of collectors actively working on New Orleans half eagle sets and that the demand for interesting coins far exceeds the supply. I strongly suggest buying nice examples of any of the key issues (1842-O, 1847-O, 1855-O, 1856-O and 1857-O) and I like nearly any choice, original No Motto piece from this mint graded EF40 or better.

For the last few years, I was literally begging people to buy significant New Orleans eagles. It appears that at least a few people listened to me as there now appears to be a number of people building No Motto and With Motto date sets. I still strongly recommend just about any better date No Motto coin and just about any common date With Motto in MS63 and higher grades.

Last but not least: the double eagles from this mint. I’m pretty conflicted at this point in time about New Orleans Twenties. As someone who repeatedly touted what a great value these coins were as recently as a few years ago, I’m happy that I was able to help drive this market upwards. But I wonder how much further it can go. As I mentioned above, an 1854-O in PCGS AU55 just brought close to a half million bucks at auction. That’s a whole lot of money for a fairly esoteric coin. I guess what it boils down to is the number of collectors who are putting together sets of these coins. If there are many very wealthy collectors assembling sets of New Orleans double eagles than I guess I can see basal values for the 1854-O and the 1856-O staying at their currently sky-high levels. But if there aren’t more collectors waiting in the wings to fill these holes in their sets than I wonder what the levels will be like in a few years. One last caveat: if you are working on such a set you absolutely positively need to be working with a knowledgeable dealer. At these kinds of prices, you don’t want to be making many mistakes.

2007 Milwaukee ANA Show Review

I went to this summer’s ANA Convention expecting a good but not great show. I left the show having had one of my better ANA’s in many years and I think most other dealers can honestly say the same. On the DWN grading scale, I’d have to give the 2007 ANA a solid A-. I decided not to do any of the pre-show activity. In my opinion, doing the extra three or four days leaves me too tired during the regular ANA week and this isn’t fair to my customers who are anxious to meet with me. Plus, to be perfectly honest, I just don’t have the unlimited energy I had when I was in my 30’s and could work for days at a time at an ANA level of intensity.

I arrived on Monday and attended the pre-PNG set-up for a few hours. My major goal for the week was to buy and I had decided to focus my energy on the bourse floor as opposed to the Heritage auction where I knew prices on the DWN-caliber material would be extremely high.

PNG day was Tuesday. I generally hate PNG day. It starts absurdly early (8 a.m.) and seeing other dealers in suits scares me. Plus I find this to be a generally lackluster day with little of interest going on. This year’s edition started slowly but it seemed to really pick-up steam after a few hours and by the end of the day, things were very active. I literally ran from table to table searching for interesting coins and was able to buy a number of really neat items. I had hoped to find at least one interesting deal and was disappointed that this didn’t really pan out but I was very pleased with what I did find; albeit one or two items at a time.

Wednesday was a little bit of a let down. There was not a very good turn-out as far as collectors went, so I continued to do quite a bit of wholesale business. I can’t recall a show where it was easier to sell nice coins than at this year’s ANA. And here’s something surprising: a number of formerly “dead” areas of the market are suddenly coming to life. There were numerous dealers looking for type coins, especially items like Proof-64 and better Liberty Seated silver, scarcer date Liberty Seated and Barber coins and even such perennially overlooked items as Liberty Nickels and Three Cent silvers.

What else was hot? Everyone (and I do mean everyone) was looking for coins that were either very pretty, very rare or very interesting. And early coins (i.e. those dated prior to 1835) were in huge demand. I bought and sold a number of interesting early gold coins; mostly in the $7,500 to $15,000 range.

Thursday was the best—and longest—day of the show. I started answering emails at 6:30 a.m. and didn’t finish until I left the Heritage Platinum Night sale at close to 11 p.m. I stayed busy the entire day meeting with clients, preparing coins for submission to PCGS/NGC, buying coins from other dealers, figuring bids, etc. I typically had two to four people at my table all day and I could definitely sense a real buzz in the room and from what I could tell, most other dealers were quite busy as well.

So what were some of the more interesting items that I bought and was able to bring home? A few include the following:

An incredible original 1865 Proof set in an original presentation box, graded PR65 to PR67

A glorious 1795 half dollar in NGC AU55

A choice 1802 half dollar in PCGS EF45

An Uncirculated 1861-D gold dollar (which is currently being graded at PCGS)

An 1832 quarter eagle in choice original PCGS AU55

A superb original 1844-C quarter eagle in PCGS MS61

A select group of Carson City gold coinage

Some choice Liberty Head double eagles including a nice PCGS MS60 1861-S

One of the more interesting things that happened at the show involved a Midwestern investor/collector who brought a number of rare coins with him for sale. He placed his coins on display on Wednesday and there was a complete feeding frenzy as numerous dealers in upper-end coins descended on him. He sold well over $5 million in coins in two days including a number of very rare double eagles, choice early gold and a great group of choice early dollars. I was intrigued that this individual decided to forego the auction route and it didn’t seem to hurt him any as he got excellent prices for his coins.

Speaking of auctions, the Stack’s, Bowers & Merena and Heritage sales were all very strong. I attended only the Platinum Night session at Heritage and was amazed at the strength of the prices. I expect great coins to bring strong money at these sales but what surprises me these days is what the mediocre material sells for. As recently as two years ago, I could buy “product” at a Heritage sale and flip it to other dealers for a 15% profit the next day. Now, these same coins bring more than what I would sell them for. Clearly, auction prices now represent the new retail price levels for most series and I am convinced that, at least for me, I’d rather try my luck buying on the bourse floor.

My book “Gold Coins of the New Orleans Mint” was given an award for “Extraordinary Merit” in the field of United States coin books by the Numismatic Literary Guild. I wasn’t able to receive my award in person (I was too busy working!) but had it in my case for the majority of the show.

All in all, it was a tiring but very rewarding ANA. I think the strength of this show will carry over into the late summer/early fall months and we will continue to see a good market for the immediate future.

2007 Milwaukee ANA Show Forecast

Needless to say, the upcoming ANA Convention in Milwaukee is a major topic of conversation among dealers and collectors this week. How do I think this show will turn out and what are some of the trends I expect to see? Read on for some of my thoughts. 1. My gut feeling is that this will be a good but not great ANA show; probably something like a B or maybe even a B+ on the grading scale. I think part of the reason it won’t be a screaming success is the simple fact that the market is good right now but not as great as it’s been during the last few ANA shows. The second reason is the location. I know at least a few serious collectors who are not attending because the thought of a few days in Milwaukee isn’t as enticing as going on vacation somewhere exotic. And, of course, some people need to stay home and make enough money to pay for the new coins they will be buying after the show is over.

2. I can just about guarantee that every post-ANA market report you read is going to include a complaint about the lack of available material. I tend to approach major coin shows with a realistic approach these days. If I’m really lucky and all the stars align just right, I’ll be able to buy some really nice coins. If things don’t work out that well, I will buy a decent number of nice coins but not as many as I could have used. The bottom line is that nice coins are very hard to buy and even the number one show of the year isn’t necessarily going to pry them out of the strong hands they tend to be in these days.

3. The auctions are going to be strong. I spent a few hours yesterday looking through the Heritage sale on-line and compared the current bids to the numbers that I am willing to pay. My impression is that while a few interesting coins will sell semi-reasonably, many of the best lots in the sale are going to sell for exceptionally strong prices.

4. It will be interesting to see if certain dealers will be buying coins specifically in anticipation of the upcoming CAC launch. My guess is that the only dealers who will be able to create any significant positions are those with excellent cash flow. Most dealers do not have enough extra cash lying around that they can put away substantial numbers of coins for six months to a year in anticipation of a market swing. Plus you need to remember one thing about most dealers: we like the action of buying and selling and we need a continual supply of coins to sell in order for our businesses to be a success.

5. In terms of what will be in demand at the show, I think it’s safe to say that nice early gold will be actively sought and that most of the available pieces will be subpar for the grade. Better date 20th century gold will be active, especially in the Indian Head eagle series. I think the demand for branch mint gold will be pretty series-specific. By this, I mean the participants in this market will be on the lookout for better dates (such as 1861-D gold dollars and half eagles) or choice, original pieces in the $2,000-7,500 price range. New Orleans gold should continue its increased level of demand and I wouldn’t be surprised if Three Dollar gold pieces show greater activity than earlier in the year. Any coin that is extremely rare and which has a high “coolness factor” will be extremely easy to sell (hopefully I can buy a few coins like this!). But this, of course, is no surprise.

What Constitutes Originality?

The term “original” gets thrown around a lot these days. I should know; I probably use (and overuse) this term as much as anyone. But as much as this term is used, I think there is considerable confusion and disagreement over what original actually means. As it applies to 18th and 19th century United States gold, the concept of originality fits just a small percentage of actual coins. Unless you can trace a complete history of a coin, it is essentially impossible to state with certainty that it is truly original—i.e., it has never been cleaned or in anyway enhanced.

So what exactly do I think constitutes originality? I think it’s easier to explain what “isn’t original” than what “is original.”

A coin that is original has the right color for the issue. On rare gold coins, a give-away that a coin has “bad” color is when it is a bright orange or intense reddish-gold hue. This bad color tends to be artificially applied and it is generally done in an attempt to hide hairlines or surface problems. Original color tends to be a medium to deep green-gold or rose-gold hue. In all of the books that I’ve written, I’ve mentioned the color(s) that I’ve observed on specific gold issues. I highly suggest that you read these books when you are making a purchasing decision.

An original coin has surfaces that lack obtrusive hairlines. When a coin is cleaned, it tends to show hairlines. But here’s where a sticky subject comes up: what about a coin that was cleaned 75 or even 100 years ago and which has now naturally retoned in deep hues atop these hairlines. Is it original? Strictly speaking, no. Is it desirable? If the coloration is attractive and the hairlines are not too dense, absolutely. One has to operate under the assumption that virtually all 18th and 19th century United States gold coins have been cleaned at one time and light, unobtrusive hairlines can’t be considered as a detriment when calling a coin “original.”

An original coin also has luster that has not been significantly impaired (assuming, of course, that it does not have enough wear that the luster has been lost). When a coin is cleaned or processed, the luster is changed. Non-impaired luster has a circular or “cartwheel” pattern. When it is disturbed, the luster no longer rotates in a circular pattern. It becomes irregular and it appears to “jump” as opposed to spinning.

A coin that is original also does not have any sort of putty or “gunk” that has been applied to the surfaces in an attempt to hide imperfections. This can usually be determined by the presence of dull or whitish areas that can be seen when a coin is viewed in a good light source.

In summary, a coin that is original is none of the following:

It has not been recolored.

It is not unduly bright or shiny.

It does not have an abundance of hairlines, especially on both sides.

It does not have any foreign substances on the surfaces that were applied in an attempt to hide imperfections.

Given the fact that so few coins meet these stringent criteria, can the collector who favors original coins actually ever expect to find anything for his collection? I would say that the answer is yes.

There are still a decent number of coins that are either original or which have an “original appearance.” (Perhaps this last term is actually more accurate, given the fact that no one can state with absolute certainty that a 150 year old coin has or hasn’t been completely untouched in its long and winding road through numismatics and/or commerce).

Coins that have a good provenance tend to have an original appearance more often that coins that just happen to show up on Ebay. I think we can state with relative certainty that collectors like Mrs. Norweb and Louis Eliasberg were not sitting at home doctoring their gold coins.

Is original always best? That’s an interesting subjective question. There are gold coins with coloration that I refer to as “Euro” which have very dark hues caused by years and years of sitting undisturbed in bags in European vaults. This color is clearly natural but it can be pretty ugly; even to a purist like me who loves coloration on coins. In the case of a coin with dark Euro-grime on it, I could certainly see washing it in soap and water to remove the top layer of dirt. Once this is done, is the coin technically “original?” Or has it been processed? A smart dealer I know once told me that if a coin has been processed in a solution that isn’t lethal to humans upon drinking it is still natural. As you can see, this becomes a matter of semantics that is very difficult to answer.

The bottom line is that there IS clearly a “look” that coins that are perceived to be original do have. This look is appealing to sophisticated collectors and dealers and few coins display it.