Die Varieties of Gold Coins

Will die varieties of gold coins ever be popular? For years I have tried to drum up interest in what I regard as major varieties of U.S. gold coins. By “major” I mean varieties that are significant and readily visible to the naked eye. Minor varieties do not interest me. The fact that that a mintmark is slightly further to the left on one coin versus another is mundane. But I am interested in an issue that has, say, two distinctly different mintmarks. We are in a golden age of numismatic research. This generation of collectors has access to greater information than ever before. One of the few areas that has not had really fertile die variety research is United States gold. Some upcoming books will change this.

As an example, Harry Bass’ research on early gold coinage has been improved by John Dannreuther and a book about the varieties of early gold is expected to be published soon. It will be interesting to see what effect this has on the market for rare varieties in this area.

Given the high average cost of most gold coins, my guess is that this will never be an area that becomes wildly popular with variety collectors. But certain expensive coins like Bust Dollars and early Large Cents have avid variety followings and perhaps gold will follow suit someday.

At this point I regard Liberty Head gold varieties as an area that really does not merit a premium but which has some potential. I wouldn’t pay a premium for more than a handful of these varieties but it’s nice to know you can buy something with possible added value for essentially no premium.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report III

Another observation from the Long Beach show: I’d estimate that close to 90% of all United States gold coins, regardless of denomination or price level, have been “messed with” at one time. This degree of messing ranges from light old cleanings to recoloring, to application of putty or other foreign substances to hide hairlines to massive reworking of the coin’s surfaces. What this means to the average buyer of United States gold coins: a caution flag waving in his face every time he makes a purchase. Quite frankly if you are buying coins based on a sight-unseen basis or primarily through Internet-based auctions, it is inevitable that you are buying many problems coins; despite the fact that they are in PCGS or NGC holders. More than ever, it is essential for collectors to purchase coins through a knowledgeable, trustworthy dealer.

I had the chance recently to view two different sets of 20th century gold coins. Both were highly ranked in the PCGS Set Registry within their respective series. And both sets, in all honesty, were full of problem coins; the kind that, if the market stops surging upwards, are destined to show substantial drops in appreciation. I know the owners of both sets. They are nice guys but they have always been the sort of rugged individuals who have eschewed help from other dealers and “done it themselves.” You have to wonder how much better their sets might have been if they had decided to trust a dealer or two and get some help instead of arbitrarily filling holes.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report II

The Long Beach show is in full swing and I expect that this will be the busiest of the four days of the convention. Here are a few observations I have made:

Where are all the PCGS coins? With the exception of generic gold and modern coins (plus some Morgan Dollars) there are almost no PCGS coins in dealer’s cases. This means one of three things: PCGS is grading so tightly these days that no one is sending coins there; PCGS coins are so liquid that no one has to display them—they just sell themselves or all the notable PCGS coins wind-up in auction. I’m not sure if I know exactly what the right answer is, but the current disparity between PCGS and NGC product on the market is nothing short of remarkable.

Baltimore is the new Long Beach. As recently as five years ago, Long Beach was a show that I wouldn’t have missed even if I were on my death bed. Today, the show just seems to lack the sizzle it once had. The Baltimore show (which is coming up in March, by the way) seems to have that old electric feeling and I would now rate it as the #3 show of the year, after FUN and Summer ANA.

I had a chance to look at the gold coin lots in the Heritage sale and was thoroughly unimpressed. I personally bid on less than twenty coins and was aggressive on only a handful. There were a few Three Dollar gold pieces I liked and the NGC MS62 1799 Small Stars Eagle was lovely. I also liked the NGC MS60 1844-O eagle and some of the lower valued Saints were attractive.

I spent some time at the ANR table and looked at highlights from their upcoming March sale in Baltimore. Yow!! There are some amazing coins in this sale and I will be discussing them in greater detail in the coming weeks in a series of Raregoldcoins.com Market Reports.

February 2006 Long Beach Show Report I

The February 2006 Long Beach Show opened today. Traditionally, Wednesday is a dealers-only event with trading occuring off the floor in the morning and on the bourse in the afternoon and early evening. Buying activity, in my eyes, could be described in three words: really, really difficult. I looked through dozens of dealer's coins today (including a number whose coins I do not look at until later in the show) and I have to admit that this is one of the harder shows I ever attended in terms of buying. There just isn't alot of material out there and what few nice coins there were have staggering price tags attached. I am hopeful that more coins will turn up later in the week but I am not holding my breath...

This is really par for the course at a Long Beach show. For some reason, this is a very hard show to buy at. It has been for many years. I would assume that part of the reason is that the services are tight at Long Beach shows and not many fresh coins get made. I expect that the upcoming Baltimore show in March will present me with more interesting buying opportunities.

But I am not returning empty-handed. I was able to buy around a dozen interesting New Orleans gold coins including a Condiiton Census 1855-O eagle, a lovely AU58 1845-O half eagle, some very high quality quarter eagles and a pleasing "slider" 1855-O gold dollar. I will have these coins listed and imaged on my website by Monday and would suggest you call me at (214) 675-9897 if anything captures your fancy.

Indian Head Quarter Eagles

In the past few years, Indian Head quarter eagles have been very successfully promoted. A not-as-well-known but equally successful promotion has doubled the price of common date MS65 Indian Head half eagles in the past year. I have recently witnessed an interesting trend that I think might foretell the next price run-up in the 20th century gold coin market. A few dealers are starting to quietly accumulate better date Indian Head eagles, especially issues such as the 1908-D With Motto, 1909-D, 1909-S, 1912-S, 1914-S and 1915-S. The desired grade range for these coins is MS63 to MS65 with most of the activity seen in the MS64 range as this is a “sweet spot” from the standpoint of price (most MS65’s are expensive) and rarity (many of these dates are nearly impossible to find in Gem).

It makes sense to me for a lot of reasons that this series is due for a promotion. The coins are beautiful (I personally like the design even better than the St. Gaudens double eagle), the set is relatively short (only thirty-six coins including the 1907 Wire Edge and Rolled Edge varieties) and, unlike Saints, it can realistically be completed. Most importantly, this series is a sort of final frontier in 20th century gold as it is really the only denomination left that hasn’t been promoted and seen significant price run-ups.

This is a great set for a collector to assemble but it takes deep pockets, especially in MS64 and higher grades. How can the collector of more modest means take advantage of what could become an interesting market play in the coming years? I would suggest purchasing a few slightly better dates in MS64 or MS65. There are only two truly common issues in this series: the 1926 and the 1932. They are currently valued in the $2250-2500 range in MS64 and around $5000-5250 in MS65. I’d suggest the collector look for marginally scarcer dates such as a 1908 With Motto, 1912, 1913, 1914 or 1914-D. These currently sell for modest premiums in MS64 and MS65 despite the fact that they are many times rarer than the 1926 or 1932.

A few buying tips: avoid coins with heavily spotted surfaces as they are hard to sell (a few small, unobtrusive spots are OK), be careful for coins with deep, detracting marks (especially on the face of Liberty) and watch out for coins with funky color (yes, they are even in NGC and PCGS holders).